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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 11, 2022 18:56:14 GMT
Just released today. Vegas has this as the favorite to win Best Picture this year. It might even win the People's Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. The Fabelmans is a coming-of-drama about Sammy Fabelman growing up in post-World War II America. It is loosely based on Steven Spielberg's own childhood. Paul Dano and Michelle Williams play Sammy's parents, Burt and Mitzi.
The film is written, directed, and produced by Steven Spielberg. Tony Kushner contributes as a writer and producer. The cast includes Seth Rogen, Judd Hirsch, Julia Butters, and David Lynch as John Ford.
Early reviews have been speculator. 9.3/10 per IMDB. 91% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The question is not "Will it Oscar", but "How much will it Oscar?". This one is slam-dunk.
Gold Derby has it the favorite to win Picture, Director and Supporting Actor and Actress for Dano and Williams. Currently they have the original screenplay as the second favorite to win.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 11, 2022 22:01:15 GMT
Just released today. Vegas has this as the favorite to win Best Picture this year. It might even win the People's Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. The Fabelmans is a coming-of-drama about Sammy Fabelman growing up in post-World War II America. It is loosely based on Steven Spielberg's own childhood. Paul Dano and Michelle Williams play Sammy's parents, Burt and Mitzi.
The film is written, directed, and produced by Steven Spielberg. Tony Kushner contributes as a writer and producer. The cast includes Seth Rogen, Judd Hirsch, Julia Butters, and David Lynch as Tom Ford.
Early reviews have been speculator. 9.3/10 per IMDB. 91% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The question is not "Will it Oscar", but "How much will it Oscar?". This one is slam-dunk.
Gold Derby has it the favorite to win Picture, Director and Supporting Actor and Actress for Dano and Williams. Currently they have the original screenplay as the second favorite to win.
*John |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Sept 11, 2022 23:22:14 GMT
In a normal year, it would be the automatic best picture winner, but with this political climate, it could be Moonlighted by something more topical. Michelle Williams is the clear frontrunner though
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 12, 2022 0:52:47 GMT
Thank you. Not sure why I was thinking Tom.
What do you think of The Fablemans chances here? Gold Derby seems to think it is going to win picture, director, supporting actor and actress. Based on the trailer alone, Michelle Williams looks like a strong contender to win. She is way too overdue.
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Post by dadsburgers on Sept 12, 2022 1:39:20 GMT
In a normal year, it would be the automatic best picture winner, but with this political climate, it could be Moonlighted by something more topical. Michelle Williams is the clear frontrunner though I haate this framing of 2016  I really don't think Moonlight won because it was topical. It may have won in spite of being topical (if it's even fair to label it that, which I also think is questionable). Moonlight is simply, as a whole, a better film than La La Land. Sorry lol irrelevant rant over, but I couldn't help myself. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 12, 2022 3:15:26 GMT
In a normal year, it would be the automatic best picture winner, but with this political climate, it could be Moonlighted by something more topical. Michelle Williams is the clear frontrunner though I haate this framing of 2016 I really don't think Moonlight won because it was topical. It may have won in spite of being topical (if it's even fair to label it that, which I also think is questionable). Moonlight is simply, as a whole, a better film than La La Land. Sorry lol irrelevant rant over, but I couldn't help myself. Like that's ever actually mattered though. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 12, 2022 3:15:51 GMT
Thank you. Not sure why I was thinking Tom.
What do you think of The Fablemans chances here? Gold Derby seems to think it is going to win picture, director, supporting actor and actress. Based on the trailer alone, Michelle Williams looks like a strong contender to win. She is way too overdue.
I think it takes Picture and Supporting Actress, and quite possibly Director. |
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 12, 2022 3:23:25 GMT
Thank you. Not sure why I was thinking Tom.
What do you think of The Fablemans chances here? Gold Derby seems to think it is going to win picture, director, supporting actor and actress. Based on the trailer alone, Michelle Williams looks like a strong contender to win. She is way too overdue.
I think it takes Picture and Supporting Actress, and quite possibly Director. Abandoning Babylon already? |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 12, 2022 3:32:23 GMT
I don't buy it as an automatic frontrunner. No discernable political subtext in a watershed year politically, and sentimental autobiographical director movies from Roma to Marriage Story to Belfast have failed to nab the top prize despite all being predicated frontrunners at points in their races. It'll almost certainly be in the conversation and be nominated for lots of stuff but my guess is that a screenplay win or director win is more likely than BP.
On paper Women Talking looks a lot stronger and is more in line with the picks they've been making recently.
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Post by stabcaesar on Sept 12, 2022 3:50:34 GMT
For the past 10 seasons the early frontrunner almost always lost BP in the end. The Fabelmans has early frontrunner written all over it. I say it wins the drama globe and maybe BAFTA best film, then another popular film aligning more with the zeitgeist will have a late surge and beat it at the Oscars.
Williams is very likely sweeping all the televised awards, though. She's the Anne Hathaway/Patricia Arquette/Viola Davis/Laura Dern of this season.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 12, 2022 4:35:18 GMT
I think it takes Picture and Supporting Actress, and quite possibly Director. Abandoning Babylon already? I always had the two very close in my head, so for now I'll go with the known quantity. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 12, 2022 14:58:53 GMT
I think I’m still tentatively predicting Women Talking for picture but this seems like a pretty good chance to give Spielberg Director for his most personal film. Supporting Actress is a given. Maybe even original screenplay. I feel like if they could pick Branagh over PTA they can pick Kushner/Spielberg over the Daniels.
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Post by quetee on Sept 12, 2022 15:01:00 GMT
Right now going with the following main categories:
director
s. actress
s. actor
o. screenplay
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Sept 12, 2022 16:41:29 GMT
In a normal year, it would be the automatic best picture winner, but with this political climate, it could be Moonlighted by something more topical. Michelle Williams is the clear frontrunner though I haate this framing of 2016 I really don't think Moonlight won because it was topical. It may have won in spite of being topical (if it's even fair to label it that, which I also think is questionable). Moonlight is simply, as a whole, a better film than La La Land. Sorry lol irrelevant rant over, but I couldn't help myself. Regardless of your personal opinion about the movies, fact is more acclaimed and much more popular movies than Moonlight lost to a lot less popular and acclaimed movies than La La Land. Movies about Hollywood particularly were sweeping around that time, so it's unlikely, maybe even implausible, that Moonlight would have won over LLL in a Hillary Clinton president, with a much less politicized and happier overall Hollywood. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 12, 2022 22:21:16 GMT
For the past 10 seasons the early frontrunner almost always lost BP in the end. The Fabelmans has early frontrunner written all over it. I say it wins the drama globe and maybe BAFTA best film, then another popular film aligning more with the zeitgeist will have a late surge and beat it at the Oscars. Williams is very likely sweeping all the televised awards, though. She's the Anne Hathaway/Patricia Arquette/Viola Davis/Laura Dern of this season. Very good commentary here. The Academy tends to go for the "late-bloomer". The Fablemans are unquestionably hot. But will another film end up stealing the thunder. Last year, it was Power of the Dog and Belfast as the early favorite. After CODA won the SAG Ensemble and SAG Supporting Actor award, the momentum shifted big time.
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Post by quetee on Sept 12, 2022 22:34:21 GMT
For the past 10 seasons the early frontrunner almost always lost BP in the end. The Fabelmans has early frontrunner written all over it. I say it wins the drama globe and maybe BAFTA best film, then another popular film aligning more with the zeitgeist will have a late surge and beat it at the Oscars. Williams is very likely sweeping all the televised awards, though. She's the Anne Hathaway/Patricia Arquette/Viola Davis/Laura Dern of this season. Very good commentary here. The Academy tends to go for the "late-bloomer". The Fablemans are unquestionably hot. But will another film end up stealing the thunder. Last year, it was Power of the Dog and Belfast as the early favorite. After CODA won the SAG Ensemble and SAG Supporting Actor award, the momentum shifted big time.
yeah, dontsee bp win but it could end up winning most Oscar's. I think Steven is winning director. For some reason not sold on women talking like everyone else. I also wonder if empire of light's bp hopefulness is gone now that you have another love cinema movie in the mix. I think Babylon will be respected but not adored. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Sept 13, 2022 3:55:39 GMT
For the past 10 seasons the early frontrunner almost always lost BP in the end. The Fabelmans has early frontrunner written all over it. I say it wins the drama globe and maybe BAFTA best film, then another popular film aligning more with the zeitgeist will have a late surge and beat it at the Oscars. Williams is very likely sweeping all the televised awards, though. She's the Anne Hathaway/Patricia Arquette/Viola Davis/Laura Dern of this season. Very good commentary here. The Academy tends to go for the "late-bloomer". The Fablemans are unquestionably hot. But will another film end up stealing the thunder. Last year, it was Power of the Dog and Belfast as the early favorite. After CODA won the SAG Ensemble and SAG Supporting Actor award, the momentum shifted big time. Parasite, Green Book (ew), Moonlight all followed the same trajectory. The Shape of Water, Spotlight, and Birdman were less obvious but they were roughly in the same boat. |
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 20, 2022 4:50:35 GMT
I’m starting to wonder if this could be like the Boyhood of this year (someone actually compared it to Linklater) – initially the presumed frontrunner, a coming-of-age story with a loose and episodic narrative and a long runtime, wins supporting actress for a mom role, but is overtaken by something more atypical, shorter, flashier, and underestimated at PGA.  |
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Post by michael128 on Sept 20, 2022 19:42:18 GMT
I haate this framing of 2016 I really don't think Moonlight won because it was topical. It may have won in spite of being topical (if it's even fair to label it that, which I also think is questionable). Moonlight is simply, as a whole, a better film than La La Land. Sorry lol irrelevant rant over, but I couldn't help myself. Regardless of your personal opinion about the movies, fact is more acclaimed and much more popular movies than Moonlight lost to a lot less popular and acclaimed movies than La La Land. Movies about Hollywood particularly were sweeping around that time, so it's unlikely, maybe even implausible, that Moonlight would have won over LLL in a Hillary Clinton president, with a much less politicized and happier overall Hollywood. which? |
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Nov 28, 2022 21:12:30 GMT
Ok. Didn’t know where to do a thread for this, but kind of felt like a good jumping off point in here. Do we actually consider Williams a Lead in her film?
Maybe there’s an argument to be made, but after seeing it, I’m firmly putting her in the Supporting batch. Yes, she’s a major element of the story, but ultimately it’s still Sammy’s story. It’s almost entirely observed through his perspective, and even when she gets focus, it’s never taking it directly away from him. She helps shape him, but she’s never upstaging him so to say.
Furthermore, why is she considered Lead, but Dano is being pushed supporting? He has almost as much (sometimes more) focus and drive over the narrative as she does, and is just as important as her in shaping Sammy. The movie is all about how the experience he had between both of his parents, and the different things they want from him guiding him. Bottom line, I think if you consider Williams Leading, you also have to consider him Leading.
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I really don't think Moonlight won because it was topical. It may have won in spite of being topical (if it's even fair to label it that, which I also think is questionable). Moonlight is simply, as a whole, a better film than La La Land. Sorry lol irrelevant rant over, but I couldn't help myself.
