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Post by pacinoyes on May 28, 2022 13:07:44 GMT
.............or at least fall apart atm. Is it just Joe Biden - or something else? Was it ever really a "Democrat Party Coalition" or ONLY an "Obama Top Of Ticket Coalition" that can't be repeated? How do they get those voters back? Are Hispanic voters becoming for Republicans what "African American voters" have always been to Democrats - a perennial, consistently winnable voting block - or is what's happened lately just an aberration? Is it solely economic or part culture war issues - which I would say are huge in US culture - some think they're meaningless ........but I don't get that reasoning at all, tbh. Biden’s old boss, Barack Obama, put together a winning coalition during his presidency, combining college-educated whites with young, Black and Latino voters. The danger for Democrats is that Biden appears to be unraveling that coalition. About the only groups still solidly in his camp are dedicated members of the Democratic base, such as Black voters and college-educated women.
Biden carried close to two-thirds of Hispanic voters in 2020, but their shift toward Trump, compared to 2016, was notable, especially in states such as Florida and Texas. In the Texas primaries in March this year, participation in GOP primaries was up dramatically in heavily Hispanic portions of South Texas that traditionally have been overwhelmingly Democratic.
media.newyorker.com/photos/590954ca2179605b11ad4026/16:9/w_1280,c_limit/Electoral1500-200.jpg
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Post by therealcomicman117 on May 28, 2022 15:04:32 GMT
"It's the economy stupid" - Obama basically overperformed the fundamentals because things got very bad, especially once the big financial recession of 2008 hit. It's why he basically overperformed in Michigan / Pennsylvania / Wisconsin, and made those states look bluer then they actually were. Obama was also smart because he targeted Latinos just as his campaign was kicking up. For example, he did Spanish ads in Florida as he was trying to win the primary there. Biden in comparison came off like an out of touch old man, who seemed downright hostile to the concept of appealing to different people.
It also can't be overstated how a lot of voters by and large don't want the same party in power for too long, and just get bored. Latinos are also pro-incumbent, females were most concerned by crime, which the GOP continues to bafflingly win on, while males were drawn to Trump's machoism.
However, it should be noted, Demographics are not destiny. For all we know, they could swing back. Bill Clinton in two big election swings, won a bunch of rural voters in 1992 and 1996 in counties, and in states like Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, Missouri, and Louisiana, and then they flipped to the Republicans permanently in 2000. The bigger concern going forward is more the GOP cheating, and nothing being done to stop them, or nobody caring.
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Post by countjohn on May 28, 2022 23:19:33 GMT
Well it's hard to have an Obama coalition without Obama. The New Deal coalition was called the New Deal Coalition because it was about the platform, not just FDR. Obama's coalition was largely built around his personal appeal which is obviously not replicated by H. Clinton or Biden.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 3, 2022 10:02:39 GMT
Well it's hard to have an Obama coalition without Obama. The New Deal coalition was called the New Deal Coalition because it was about the platform, not just FDR. Obama's coalition was largely built around his personal appeal which is obviously not replicated by H. Clinton or Biden. Yeah, the other component in this is the Chrstianity angle (or more generally "religious") which is constantly, wrongly removed from the equation - this is from 2012 but still - the Democratic Party - much like the agnostic / atheist blasphemous heathens of MAR - is not as inclined to aggressively go after that vote at all tbh especially when they think they have it by default. This is only a 3% difference but the feeling is from some other surveys that its more important to them. Now whether the Republican Party should be the Party of choice in that regard is another matter entirely......... * According to the Pew Hispanic survey, 83% of Hispanics claim a religious affiliation, a share slightly higher than that seen among the general public (80%). Among Latinos, most are Catholic—more than three-in-five (62%) say this is their religious affiliation.Apr 4, 2012 The Quinnipiac University survey published Wednesday found that just 26% of Hispanics approve of Biden’s performance, while 60% disapprove and 13% said they did not know or had no opinion.
nypost.com/2022/05/19/biden-job-disapproval-among-hispanics-hits-60-percent-poll/
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Post by Brother Fease on Jun 5, 2022 14:13:40 GMT
I am not sure if I completely understand the point about the Obama coalition "being lost". Lets review:
The Republican Party hasn't won the popular vote since November of 2004. Since George H.W Bush was elected president, the GOP has only won the popular vote once. Just getting 48% of the popular vote has been a major struggle for the Republican Party. Donald Trump couldn't even get 47% in two tries.
Obama in 2008, banked off of W's 2nd term incompetency and the housing bubble bursting. The Democrats built majorities in the House, Senate, and Presidency. However, since Obama was President, the Democrats have been losing their political power. Yes, Obama did win his second term, but with less support. And at the end of the day, he couldn't get 50 Senators to support Garland as the next Supreme Court Justice.
In 2020, Biden got more votes than any other presidential candidate in U.S history. We won over Arizona and Georgia. Two states which hadn't voted Democrat since the 90s.
Biden hasn't even been president for two years. He inherited a fragile economy, a pandemic (which apparently just ended), and a war with Russian-Ukraine.
So this is why I am confused by the premise being pushed here. The 2022 elections are in November. We don't know how that will turn out. Right now we're just in primary mode. If (or when) the SCOTUS reverses Roe and Casey, there's going to be a gigantic backlash against the GOP.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 5, 2022 14:52:15 GMT
I am not sure if I completely understand the point about the Obama coalition "being lost". Lets review: The Republican Party hasn't won the popular vote since November of 2004. Since George H.W Bush was elected president, the GOP has only won the popular vote once. Just getting 48% of the popular vote has been a major struggle for the Republican Party. Donald Trump couldn't even get 47% in two tries. Obama in 2008, banked off of W's 2nd term incompetency and the housing bubble bursting. In 2020, Biden got more votes than any other presidential candidate in U.S history. We won over Arizona and Georgia. Two states which hadn't voted Democrat since the 90s. Biden hasn't even been president for two years. He inherited a fragile economy, a pandemic (which apparently just ended), and a war with Russian-Ukraine. So this is why I am confused by the premise being pushed here. The 2022 elections are in November. We don't know how that will turn out. Right now we're just in primary mode. If (or when) the SCOTUS reverses Roe and Casey, there's going to be a gigantic backlash against the GOP. Tbh, I don't understand that at all ^ - why are you talking about Pre-Obama and Obama himself - it was fine thru Obama - this problem - and it is a problem - didn't exist for them prior. Are we only supposed to discuss politics AFTER elections and not look ahead? In 2020, Biden attracted less Hispanic votes by percentage than Clinton - she got 66%, Biden got 61% - and THAT was down from Obama's 71% in 2012 - so it's 3 declining percentages in a row - and now Biden is polling at 26% with Hispanics atm so that's an issue we can assess now - see the earlier posts. Biden did not inhert a war with Russia-Ukraine btw, he was President when it started (?) I do think Roe Vs. Casey may help in 2024 but I don't think it will as much in 2022 imo.........by any logical estimate the Dems are are going to lose the House - GOP will pick up 20-35 seats (at least?) and likely the Senate too - though that is less clear......and Hispanics are going to help them specifically win key races in battleground states Florida, Texas and possibly Arizona in 2022 mid-terms.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jun 5, 2022 16:04:52 GMT
I am not sure if I completely understand the point about the Obama coalition "being lost". Lets review: The Republican Party hasn't won the popular vote since November of 2004. Since George H.W Bush was elected president, the GOP has only won the popular vote once. Just getting 48% of the popular vote has been a major struggle for the Republican Party. Donald Trump couldn't even get 47% in two tries. Obama in 2008, banked off of W's 2nd term incompetency and the housing bubble bursting. In 2020, Biden got more votes than any other presidential candidate in U.S history. We won over Arizona and Georgia. Two states which hadn't voted Democrat since the 90s. Biden hasn't even been president for two years. He inherited a fragile economy, a pandemic (which apparently just ended), and a war with Russian-Ukraine. So this is why I am confused by the premise being pushed here. The 2022 elections are in November. We don't know how that will turn out. Right now we're just in primary mode. If (or when) the SCOTUS reverses Roe and Casey, there's going to be a gigantic backlash against the GOP. Tbh, I don't understand that at all ^ - why are you talking about Pre-Obama and Obama himself - it was fine thru Obama - this problem - and it is a problem - didn't exist for them prior. Are we only supposed to discuss politics AFTER elections and not look ahead? In 2020, Biden attracted less Hispanic votes by percentage than Clinton - she got 66%, Biden got 61% - and THAT was down from Obama's 71% in 2012 - so it's 3 declining percentages in a row - and now Biden is polling at 26% with Hispanics atm so that's an issue we can assess now - see the earlier posts. Biden did not inhert a war with Russia-Ukraine btw, he was President when it started (?) I do think Roe Vs. Casey may help in 2024 but I don't think it will as much in 2022 imo.........by any logical estimate the Dems are are going to lose the House - GOP will pick up 20-35 seats (at least?) and likely the Senate too - though that is less clear......and Hispanics are going to help them specifically win key races in battleground states Florida, Texas and possibly Arizona in 2022 mid-terms. There's an elephant in the room with Obama and minority voters. On top of the obvious, Obama was also young, highly likable and charismatic. Clinton had extremely high negatives. People simply didn't trust her. 2016 was all about who do you dislike LESS. Biden is viewed as boring. Culture and emotion play big roles in our voting system.
Right now, the Democrats big negative is the Economy. The stock market is really shaky. Inflation and Labor shortages. This is why they are unlikely to win 2022 in November.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 8, 2022 11:05:39 GMT
Tbh, I don't understand that at all ^ - why are you talking about Pre-Obama and Obama himself - it was fine thru Obama - this problem - and it is a problem - didn't exist for them prior. Are we only supposed to discuss politics AFTER elections and not look ahead? In 2020, Biden attracted less Hispanic votes by percentage than Clinton - she got 66%, Biden got 61% - and THAT was down from Obama's 71% in 2012 - so it's 3 declining percentages in a row - and now Biden is polling at 26% with Hispanics atm so that's an issue we can assess now - see the earlier posts. Biden did not inhert a war with Russia-Ukraine btw, he was President when it started (?) I do think Roe Vs. Casey may help in 2024 but I don't think it will as much in 2022 imo.........by any logical estimate the Dems are are going to lose the House - GOP will pick up 20-35 seats (at least?) and likely the Senate too - though that is less clear......and Hispanics are going to help them specifically win key races in battleground states Florida, Texas and possibly Arizona in 2022 mid-terms. Right now, the Democrats big negative is the Economy. The stock market is really shaky. Inflation and Labor shortages. This is why they are unlikely to win 2022 in November. "The economy" is a polling term though - in application "the economy" is a billion issues. It's inflation, but also gas prices, labor shortages, baby formula shortages actually too, all because of several policy decisions - tons of them - and many other things - it's boiled down to a simple "the economy" but runs very deep .......the Democratic Party - my Party - until 2021 (Independent now, thx) loses on ALL of those issues. But they are also mostly losing the culture wars - "the economy" had nothing to do with Youngkin winning or Boudin being recalled in San Francisco last night - that is a D.A. in the blluest state in America - who got kicked out of a job .........that's a huge sign that something systemic is wrong with the Party. CNN - the California of news networks (um) - just raised the losses in mid-terms - and call it the best landscape for Republicans in 80 years - 80 years - how is that possible in a country that is overturning Roe vs. Wade AND the Republican Party blocks gun reform? It's baffling, and a lot of it has to do with as a national party the Democratic Coalition of voters has deep cracks in it. Where is the national Democratic Party cohesive effort to stop an impending loss of 2 branches of government - to go along with the conservative Supreme Court?
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Post by Brother Fease on Jun 8, 2022 11:19:59 GMT
Right now, the Democrats big negative is the Economy. The stock market is really shaky. Inflation and Labor shortages. This is why they are unlikely to win 2022 in November. "The economy" is a polling term though - in application "the economy" is a billion issues. It's inflation, but also gas prices, labor shortages, baby formula shortages actually too, all because of several policy decisions - tons of them - and many other things - it's boiled down to a simple "the economy" but runs very deep .......the Democratic Party - my Party - until 2021 (Independent now, thx) loses on ALL of those issues. But they are also mostly losing the culture wars - "the economy" had nothing to do with Youngkin winning or Boudin being recalled in San Francisco last night - that is a D.A. in the blluest state in America - who got kicked out of a job .........that's a huge sign that something systemic is wrong with the Party. CNN - the California of news networks (um) - just raised the losses in mid-terms - and call it the best landscape for Republicans in 80 years - 80 years - how is that possible in a country that is overturning Roe vs. Wade AND the Republican Party blocks gun reform? It's baffling, and a lot of it has to do with as a national party the Democratic Coalition of voters has deep cracks in it. Where is the national Democratic Party cohesive effort to stop an impending loss of 2 branches of government - to go along with the conservtaive Supreme Court? Questions for you:
Are the majority of Americans pro-life or pro-choice? Do you the majority of Americans support or oppose raising taxes on the wealthy? Do you the majority of Americans support banning assault weapons? Do the majority of Americans support of oppose the Affordable Care Act?
Americans actually agree with the Democrats on social issues.
If we dig deeper, many of our problems stem from the regressive Republican Party. This is a political party that doesn't believe in getting vaccinated, wearing masks, or even following basic guidelines by the CDC. This is a political party that blocks the Equality Act, gun control measures, and expanding the Medicare to include hearing aids. This is a political party that tried to dismantle the ACA. This is a political party obsessed with attacking transgender people and their right to exist. This is a political party that doesn't believe Biden was legitimately elected and thinks the 1/6 riots were antifa. The right-wing is the one which brings up CRT and trying to ban books and discussions about racism, sexuality, and gender identity. The Democrats are guilty for not knowing to fight back against these distortions.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 8, 2022 11:50:34 GMT
Questions for you:
Are the majority of Americans pro-life or pro-choice? Do you the majority of Americans support or oppose raising taxes on the wealthy? Do you the majority of Americans support banning assault weapons? Do the majority of Americans support of oppose the Affordable Care Act?
Americans actually agree with the Democrats on social issues.
I would say the answers to all those questions is "wrong questions" - we do not live in a democracy - we live in a Democratic Republic - so the "majority of Americans" is a false premise except the one in bold which exists as Law.^"Americans" do not elect representatives that act the way you are claiming. What you are describing are polling statistics, not actual voter behavior. The Supreme Court is about to rule on abortion, the Supreme Court would likely rule that banning assault weapons is unconstitutional, "taxing the wealthy" depends on how you mean it - the Democratic Party has supported taxing WEALTH - not income - which I don't believe would pass the Supreme Court either. I'm sure in 1954 "most Americans" were opposed to Brown Vs. Board of Education........it was the "wrong question" then too........
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2022 13:37:05 GMT
If (or when) the SCOTUS reverses Roe and Casey, there's going to be a gigantic backlash against the GOP. Not to mention their refusal to pass common sense gun legislation... because of prairie dogs.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jun 8, 2022 16:26:28 GMT
Questions for you:
Are the majority of Americans pro-life or pro-choice? Do you the majority of Americans support or oppose raising taxes on the wealthy? Do you the majority of Americans support banning assault weapons? Do the majority of Americans support of oppose the Affordable Care Act?
Americans actually agree with the Democrats on social issues.
I would say the answers to all those questions is "wrong questions" - we do not live in a democracy - we live in a Democratic Republic - so the "majority of Americans" is a false premise except the one in bold which exists as Law.^"Americans" do not elect representatives that act the way you are claiming. What you are describing are polling statistics, not actual voter behavior. The Supreme Court is about to rule on abortion, the Supreme Court would likely rule that banning assault weapons is unconstitutional, "taxing the wealthy" depends on how you mean it - the Democratic Party has supported taxing WEALTH - not income - which I don't believe would pass the Supreme Court either. I'm sure in 1954 "most Americans" were opposed to Brown Vs. Board of Education........it was the "wrong question" then too........ unless I am misreading you, your premise was that the Democrats are losing the cultural issues. When you look at the issues, they are certainly not. Even Fox News polls, show support for gun control, abortion rights, and LGBT freedom. Have you even read the GOP platform?
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 8, 2022 17:04:22 GMT
I would say the answers to all those questions is "wrong questions" - we do not live in a democracy - we live in a Democratic Republic - so the "majority of Americans" is a false premise except the one in bold which exists as Law.^"Americans" do not elect representatives that act the way you are claiming. What you are describing are polling statistics, not actual voter behavior. The Supreme Court is about to rule on abortion, the Supreme Court would likely rule that banning assault weapons is unconstitutional, "taxing the wealthy" depends on how you mean it - the Democratic Party has supported taxing WEALTH - not income - which I don't believe would pass the Supreme Court either. I'm sure in 1954 "most Americans" were opposed to Brown Vs. Board of Education........it was the "wrong question" then too........
unless I am misreading you, your premise was that the Democrats are losing the cultural issues. When you look at the issues, they are certainly not. Even Fox News polls, show support for gun control, abortion rights, and LGBT freedom. Have you even read the GOP platform? That was in no way my "premise" - my "premise" is that the Democrat Party is in a historically disastrous mid-term postion and can not depend on the historical coalition now at all as they could at one time. They also lose cultural issues too unfortuantely - in addition to multiple issues under the "economic umbrella". Abortion is a key issue for them but I don't think it affects 2022 mid-terms - it rather affects 2024 and a binary choice between the parties.......the gun issue is not as significant as you think when people can't afford to eat or drive - and it is mitigated by gun crime in Democrat-lead cities, LGBT issues are not a significant voting issue in mid-terms, immigration is a Republican-favoring issue clearly, education is at best a draw when that historically was a Democratic issue for decades. The premise in the thread is "Why Did The "Obama Coalition" Fall Apart"......I would suggest you read the Democrat Party platform actually - there is nothing in that Democrat Platform that can be passed ...........and in 5 months - ~150 days - it gets a whole lot worse.........
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 10, 2022 7:39:30 GMT
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 15, 2022 17:49:48 GMT
Hey, remember when people said "pacinoyes the Obama coalition is not lost!" yeah well...nah....... It's not Biden's Problem apparently - it's rather a Democratic Party Problem - - this article is kind of unreal in its details, depressing actually, and unthinkable just a couple years ago.....and this is from a site that isn't exactly Fox News either.....only 50% of Hispanic voters believe in abortion - and that's just in general, not with some restrictions..... Strong progressives clearly live in a different world than Hispanic and working class voters. In strong progressive world, views on abortion, gun control and January 6th fit neatly into an overarching set of sociocultural beliefs that are highly salient to them and increasingly drive the Democratic party’s priorities and rhetoric.
Hispanic and working class voters lack this overarching set of beliefs—in fact, don’t share many of them—and are much more concerned with the basics of their material lives. It should thus be no surprise that these voters are increasingly losing interest in the party of abortion, gun control and January 6th.theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/working-class-and-hispanic-voters?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
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Post by Joaquim on Jul 15, 2022 20:42:10 GMT
Hey, remember when people said "pacinoyes the Obama coalition is not lost!" yeah well...nah....... It's not Biden's Problem apparently - it's rather a Democratic Party Problem - - this article is kind of unreal in its details, depressing actually, and unthinkable just a couple years ago.....and this is from a site that isn't exactly Fox News either.....only 50% of Hispanic voters believe in abortion - and that's just in general, not with some restrictions..... Strong progressives clearly live in a different world than Hispanic and working class voters. In strong progressive world, views on abortion, gun control and January 6th fit neatly into an overarching set of sociocultural beliefs that are highly salient to them and increasingly drive the Democratic party’s priorities and rhetoric.
Hispanic and working class voters lack this overarching set of beliefs—in fact, don’t share many of them—and are much more concerned with the basics of their material lives. It should thus be no surprise that these voters are increasingly losing interest in the party of abortion, gun control and January 6th.theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/working-class-and-hispanic-voters?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webYou’d be shocked at how conservative and devoutly Christian Hispanics actually are
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