So what all will The Power of the Dog win?

I still think Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay.

I’m thinking the same, but at the same time… Dune’s picking up momentum in Cinematography. And as far as I know, nominees in the technical field are left blank (it’s the movies, but the recipients aren’t there), so it could favor either Dune or Dog.

Wegner has the BP frontrunner and would make an historic win, but Dune’s more flashy and Fraser himself is garnering a reputation. So I really don’t know

So what? The BAFTA didn't give Bong Director or Picture. BAFTA didn't give it to fellow Brit Tom Hooper for The King's Speech.

Still sticking with Picture, Director and Screenplay.

it only feels safe for picture/director. Screenplay, cinematography are toss-ups, score is a dark horse, Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee are unlikely. Doesn't feel right to say it wins only picture and director, which makes me wonder if something else swoops in for BP at the last minute like CODA if that ends up taking screenplay.

I'll go with Picture/Director/Screenplay

I think they'll default to the tech juggernaut for cinematography. They almost always go for the biggest and showiest choice and Dune being the VFX frontrunner helps Fraser too.

I think the PGA winner will be crucial here. Dog has all the nominations, but has consistently come up short with the Guilds, besides Director. A PGA win would grant them a 2nd big Guild victory. You're correct to point out how odd it would be that the Best Picture winner with 12 nominations would only win Picture and Director.

I’m probably overreacting to this past weekend’s results, but right now I’m thinking Campion gets the lone Director win and that’s it. CODA’s clearly just peaking right now (as voting is happening) that the momentum surge seems undeniable, not to mention we’ve seen this same narrative of the presumed frontrunner floundering at the finish line for not inspiring enough passion time and time again.

And tbh even if Dog wins PGA, that on its own won’t necessarily convince me. If CODA wins WGA, then it’s in the same position Parasite was — so it’s happened before. If CODA doesn’t win either this weekend, though, then maybe I’ll change my tune.

yeah I'm always pretty wary about BP frontrunners. They usually peak early and then get called overhyped and something else wins out. Moonlight over La La Land, Green Book over Roma, Parasite over 1917. The guilds, HFPA, Bafta goes one way and AMPAS comes through and changes the game at the last minute, and they can do that because they always get the last word. Nomadland was the only won that was undeniable all the way through and 2020/2021 was a particularly weak season.

I'm starting to get a sinking feeling that CODA might take BP with screenplay and supporting actor (the same wins Green Book) got. The more I think about it I'm coming around to the idea that Power of the Dog feels likeliest for BP and director and I don't think it'll win the big one with just those two wins from 12 nominations (if it wins cinematography and adapted screenplay on the night I'll change my tune but I'm betting against that rn). It might be another Roma situation. I think more people probably admire than love it.

maybe I'm reading too much into the honest ballot but their narrative is convincing.

The Graduate

I mean I really liked CODA but come on.. The Power of the Dog is genuinely the best film of the year, it would be so cool if it wins. Would be so deserved.