Do SAG winners go 4/4 at the Oscars this year?

sterlingarcher86
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Do SAG winners go 4/4 at the Oscars this year? Feb 28, 2022 16:36:27 GMT via mobile

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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 28, 2022 16:36:27 GMT

This happens about 1/3 of the time. There are a couple weird years that can be thrown out like Winslet winning supporting for a The Reader and Del Toro winning lead for Traffic.

Only one of the races are locked up right now so it’s hard for me to say. I am currently predicting all 4 but there is a good chance I’m wrong about at least one of them.

flasuss Badass Posts: 1,844 Likes: 1,630	Do SAG winners go 4/4 at the Oscars this year? Feb 28, 2022 16:38:38 GMT via mobile mikediastavrone96, mhynson27, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by flasuss on Feb 28, 2022 16:38:38 GMT Probably not. Everyone but Debose feel like they could lose.

Pittsnogle_Goggins God Tier Posts: 7,275 Likes: 5,553	Do SAG winners go 4/4 at the Oscars this year? Feb 28, 2022 17:00:45 GMT morton and RiverleavesElmius like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 28, 2022 17:00:45 GMT Currently it’s what I’m predicting.

sirjeremy Full Member Posts: 659 Likes: 385	Do SAG winners go 4/4 at the Oscars this year? Feb 28, 2022 17:34:47 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by sirjeremy on Feb 28, 2022 17:34:47 GMT No, I still think Kidman is winning.

RiverleavesElmius
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Do SAG winners go 4/4 at the Oscars this year? Feb 28, 2022 19:28:16 GMT via mobile

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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Feb 28, 2022 19:28:16 GMT

Feb 28, 2022 17:34:47 GMT sirjeremy said:

No, I still think Kidman is winning.

BUAHAHAHAHAHAAAA!!! 🤣🤣

It'll be either Chastain or (what I'm currently predicting) a shocking Stewart upset that'll (blessedly) put a bit of a lit on all the precursor obsession & premature assumptions.

Through the darkness of future past
The magician longs to see
One chants out, between two worlds:
"Fire Walk with Me"

Ryan_MYeah Almighty Posts: 6,535 Likes: 4,752	Do SAG winners go 4/4 at the Oscars this year? Feb 28, 2022 21:01:29 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Ryan_MYeah on Feb 28, 2022 21:01:29 GMT Currently predicting Smith/Kidman (come at me)/Kotsur/DeBose
	they all wanna be u mmmmmmmmyeah - chunky_lover_68

Ryan_MYeah Almighty Posts: 6,535 Likes: 4,752	Do SAG winners go 4/4 at the Oscars this year? Feb 28, 2022 21:03:44 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Ryan_MYeah on Feb 28, 2022 21:03:44 GMT Also, watch Hinds win BAFTA, and turn this into 2007 when Swinton won
	they all wanna be u mmmmmmmmyeah - chunky_lover_68

finniussnrub
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Do SAG winners go 4/4 at the Oscars this year? Mar 1, 2022 11:19:58 GMT

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Post by finniussnrub on Mar 1, 2022 11:19:58 GMT

Usually 4/4 comes from full sweeps across what are seen as the major precursors (Globes, BAFTA, SAG) in general, which is only possibly for actor (where Smith VERY easily could lose BAFTA) and supporting actress. So an upset seems likely for at least one category if not two or maybe even three (though not too likely).

morton
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Do SAG winners go 4/4 at the Oscars this year? Mar 1, 2022 14:38:52 GMT

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Post by morton on Mar 1, 2022 14:38:52 GMT

Mar 1, 2022 11:19:58 GMT finniussnrub said:

Usually 4/4 comes from full sweeps across what are seen as the major precursors (Globes, BAFTA, SAG) in general, which is only possibly for actor (where Smith VERY easily could lose BAFTA) and supporting actress. So an upset seems likely for at least one category if not two or maybe even three (though not too likely).

True, but for some reason I feel they go 4 for 4.

Best Actor - I thought Smith might lose down the homestretch as Boseman did last year, but giving a great speech and seeing how much he’s well liked makes me think in the end he’ll go on to win now. It’s odd because I don’t feel like he’s overdue at all even though I think he can be a great actor, but I guess his timing was perfect in that Cumberbatch maybe in a stronger movie but isn’t really where awards have rallied around and the nature of his character.

Best Actress - Again having a great speech really benefitted Chastain as well as having a baity character and transforming herself to such a degree, and of course the fractured race. Three other nominees are former winners, two in films that are stronger but nothing like when McDormand won her second and third Oscars, and Stewart is in a film that I could see some voters turning off and not watching completely.

Best Supporting Actor - I think Smit-McPhee’s age will work against him. Voters are being more open, imo, or maybe it just seems that way in the past few years to younger male performances, but I think they’ll want to spread the vote, and POTD can win Adapted Screenplay, Director, and Picture as well as maybe Cinematography. Plus I really misjudged the love for CODA early on, but I think those that do love it will rally around Kotsur especially since he got to make a great speech too.

Kotsur also seems to be campaigning more. I do think that actors can win without campaigning, but I think it makes it more difficult for Smit-McPhee because he’s not well known, his young age, and unfortunately imo that Kotsur comes across as very likable. Not that performances don’t matter either, but I think it will be close, and any positive could make the difference in who ends up winning.

Best Supporting Actress - I thought maybe Negga might have a small chance to upset, but then we know what happened. Given how Negga and Balfe both missed, who I thought were her biggest competitors, I don’t see her losing especially with a role like Anita.

I guess Dench has a slight chance as the sentimental favorite perhaps, but since she’s been absent all season long and Belfast couldn’t even win SAG, I don’t see it happening at all.