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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 19, 2022 18:24:33 GMT
The nominees: Belfast, CODA, Don't Look Up, House of Gucci, King Richard
None of the Golden Globe Best Motion winners made the SAG Ensemble cut. No Encanto, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story, or Drive My Car. Belfast is the only movie nominated for the DGA and BAFTA Best Film award.
Unlike the PGA and DGA award, SAG Ensemble has been a pretty unreliable precursor. Only 46% of SAG Ensemble winners have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. That's a 12 out of 26 accuracy. 8 of those 12 winners also won the PGA and DGA. Best Picture winners Shakespeare In Love, Crash, Spotlight, and Parasite won the SAG Ensemble without winning the DGA and PGA award.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 19, 2022 18:28:03 GMT
CODA.
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Post by JangoB on Feb 19, 2022 18:40:06 GMT
I ain't got a clue. I'll go boring with Belfast but I can just as easily see CODA or King Richard take this too (lol, watch it be DLU now).
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morton
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Post by morton on Feb 19, 2022 18:49:40 GMT
This year feels strange because I could see all of the films winning.
Belfast - Early frontrunner, TIFF winner, but both guys missed.
CODA - Underdog success story that has built up a loyal following since Sundance, but Marlin missed which is odd because she’s a veteran especially in television who was campaigning a lot.
Don’t Look Up - Has the biggest and most known cast which can sometimes translate to winning this award, but didn’t get any individual nominations.
House of Gucci - Only film to max out on its nominations, but was the only one of the nominees to miss a Best Picture nomination.
King Richard - Smith should win this easily, and it did very well Oscar morning, but Ellis missing is still a big head scratcher.
I just threw House of Gucci a vote because at the time, it didn’t have any, Probably not because it’s not a heart puller like Belfast, CODA, or King Richard, and it doesn’t quite have the biggest stars like Don’t Look Up, but I’m going back to the fact that it maxed out its nominations. It’s also very difficult to try to compare the amount of viewers that have watched it versus the films that are on a streaming service, but that may also be a factor since it was the only one to do well at the box office. In hindsight, I don’t think King Richard would have. Don’t Look Up might have because of Leo, but if it went up against No Way Home, I could also see it being another film hurt by the pandemic since people just aren’t going as much to the movies as they used to.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 19, 2022 19:28:23 GMT
I voted Belfast, but it's wide open.
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Post by stephen on Feb 19, 2022 20:32:42 GMT
CODA feels exactly the sort of thing they'd reward here, especially if Kotsur misses out to Kodi and they have a way to have their cake and eat it, too.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 20, 2022 2:18:24 GMT
King Richard!!!
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 20, 2022 21:50:59 GMT
The fact that Ellis missed indicates it was almost certainly #5 |
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Post by franklin on Feb 21, 2022 0:05:09 GMT
Belfast
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 21, 2022 3:30:04 GMT
The fact that Ellis missed indicates it was almost certainly #5 I don’t think SAG really works that way. Parasite and Black Panther had no individual nominations. Ruffalo missed for Spotlight. Power of the Dog and Shape of Water had three of their cast nominated and missed all together. I think there are two major reasons for the difference. 1. A relatively small group voted for the nominees and the whole votes for the winners 2. Some members clearly just vote for Ensemble as if it’s a Best Picture award |
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