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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 15, 2022 12:12:57 GMT
SAG nominees: Ben Affleck, Bradley Cooper, Troy Kotsur, Jared Leto, Kodi Smit-McPhee
Only Kotsur and Smit-McPhee are nominated for the Oscar. Smit-McPhee leads the pack with the most best supporting actor trophies. He has 30 wins, including NY Film Critics, LA Film Critics, and the Globe. Kotsur has 6 critics circle wins, while Cooper has 4.
67% of SAG Best Supporting Actor winners have gone on to win the Oscar. That's 18 out of 27 times. The nine misses were in 2016 (Elba over Rylance), 2013 (Jones over non-SAG nominee Waltz), 2007 (Murphy over Arkin), 2006 (Giamatti over Clooney), 2003 (Walken over Cooper), 2002 (McKellen over Broadbent), 2001 (Finney over SAG Best Actor winner Del Toro), 1999 (Duvall over Coburn), and 1996 (Harris over Spacey).
What is your thought process here? Kotsur and Leto are the only nominees up for 2 SAG awards. Smit-McPhee has the Globe trophy.
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Post by JangoB on Feb 15, 2022 12:14:32 GMT
While I'm predicting Koda Spekz, I think Kotsur can absolutely win here too. Actually I can even picture a batshit win like Ben Affleck!
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 15, 2022 12:22:37 GMT
While I'm predicting Koda Spekz, I think Kotsur can absolutely win here too. Actually I can even picture a batshit win like Ben Affleck! I voted for Kotsur. The actors love to honor diversity. This is the category where a shake-up is primed for. And yes, I agree. Affleck winning here wouldn't be a surprise either. |
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Post by JangoB on Feb 15, 2022 12:28:08 GMT
While I'm predicting Koda Spekz, I think Kotsur can absolutely win here too. Actually I can even picture a batshit win like Ben Affleck! I voted for Kotsur. The actors love to honor diversity. This is the category where a shake-up is primed for. And yes, I agree. Affleck winning here wouldn't be a surprise either. Yeah, as far as honoring diversity is concerned, I think CODA can quite easily win Ensemble. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 17, 2022 12:49:07 GMT
I voted for Kotsur. The actors love to honor diversity. This is the category where a shake-up is primed for. And yes, I agree. Affleck winning here wouldn't be a surprise either. Yeah, as far as honoring diversity is concerned, I think CODA can quite easily win Ensemble. I think that's going to Belfast. But we'll get to cast later. Why do you think KSM is going to win over Kotsur? Is it because of the Globe win and winning those other big awards? Do you think being 25 years old hurts KSM here? |
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Post by JangoB on Feb 17, 2022 12:53:51 GMT
Yeah, as far as honoring diversity is concerned, I think CODA can quite easily win Ensemble. I think that's going to Belfast. But we'll get to cast later. Why do you think KSM is going to win over Kotsur? Is it because of the Globe win and winning those other big awards? Do you think being 25 years old hurts KSM here? While I do think that Kodi's age is a bit of a hindrance, I'm predicting him just because he seems like an overall Supporting Actor frontrunner this year. But it's SAG that can change all that. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2022 13:57:29 GMT
My guess would be Kotsur. SAG seems too populist of an awards body to fully embrace The Power of the Dog. We'll see.
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 17, 2022 14:06:23 GMT
I hope it's Kotsur but I think it'd be Smit-McPhee.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 17, 2022 16:04:55 GMT
Normally I'd say SAG wouldn't go for Power of the Dog but the movie has so much more support than anyone was predicting and Smit-McPhee is totally undeniable in it. I think he's going to steamroll SAG, Bafta and Oscar. it's crazy to me that only two of these nominees made the Oscar lineup  |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 17, 2022 16:19:10 GMT
so here's a fun fact: the last time only two supporting actor SAG nominees made the Oscar five was in 2015 (Elba, Shannon, Tremblay all missed) and it only happened two other times before that when the SAG awards were just kicking off in 1995 (Bacon, Branagh, Cheadle) and 1996 (Azaria, Lane, Taylor). So it's pretty rare but not unheard of.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 18, 2022 2:09:17 GMT
so here's a fun fact: the last time only two supporting actor SAG nominees made the Oscar five was in 2015 (Elba, Shannon, Tremblay all missed) and it only happened two other times before that when the SAG awards were just kicking off in 1995 (Bacon, Branagh, Cheadle) and 1996 (Azaria, Lane, Taylor). So it's pretty rare but not unheard of. Why do you think SAG and Oscar had radically different lists for Best Supporting Actor? |
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