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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 10, 2022 20:03:57 GMT
Honestly thought Balfe was her toughest competition but she missed. Ellis missed SAG and I suppose Dunst isn’t impossible but I just don’t really seeing her winning for the third most acclaimed performance in her own movie.
Smit- McPhee is strong but I want to see what the industry thinks of Kotsur first.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Feb 10, 2022 20:06:03 GMT
I’d say she’s the only lock for acting this year
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Post by JangoB on Feb 10, 2022 20:06:51 GMT
Probably. But at this point I'm struggling to call any of them safe. Which is kinda weird (and cool) because we usually have at least one uber-predictable juggernaut. But yeah, she's the closest one to being safe.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 10, 2022 20:06:59 GMT
I’d say she’s the only lock for acting this year You are probably right I just don’t like using the term “lock” before SAG. |
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Feb 10, 2022 20:20:08 GMT
I’d say she’s the only lock for acting this year Agree.I just don't see who could beat her now Balfe is out. |
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Post by stephen on Feb 10, 2022 20:20:51 GMT
No one is locked, but she's got probably the clearest path.
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Post by pupdurcs on Feb 10, 2022 20:28:41 GMT
I think Debose is vulnerable to being upset, mainly from Dench. People are really underestimating the narrative of one of AMPAS most popular actresses losing her sight and facing forced retirement. This may be the last chance to reward her. And AACTA have already rubber stamped it as a performance a country's film Academy is willing to give the win. Whatever you think of her performance, Dench's narrative is real. And Debose is enough of an unknown to most AMPAS voters where that can also favor Dench.
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Post by countjohn on Feb 10, 2022 21:11:27 GMT
The two supporting categories are pretty close to locks. Kidman is the solid favorite in Actress with a mild upset threat from Colman. Actor is really the only one that feels like a tossup right now with Smith vs Cumberbatch.
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Post by sirjeremy on Feb 10, 2022 21:18:05 GMT
For now, yes. But watch out for Dunst.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 11, 2022 0:49:37 GMT
I'd say both Supporting categories have frontrunners that feel decently safe.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 11, 2022 0:58:55 GMT
Smit-McPhee is ever safer.
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Post by flasuss on Feb 11, 2022 3:21:38 GMT
Yes, but she's not locked by any means yet.
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Post by hugobolso on Feb 11, 2022 3:21:47 GMT
Yes, the whole thing is the seccond latina to win an Oscar after 60 years for the same role (itsnt truth technically Mercedes Ruehl and Lupita Nyongo are latinas).
Maybe they would award Dench, because aparentemente is her Swan song.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Feb 11, 2022 5:59:18 GMT
I think Debose is vulnerable to being upset, mainly from Dench. People are really underestimating the narrative of one of AMPAS most popular actresses losing her sight and facing forced retirement. This may be the last chance to reward her. And AACTA have already rubber stamped it as a performance a country's film Academy is willing to give the win. Whatever you think of her performance, Dench's narrative is real. And Debose is enough of an unknown to most AMPAS voters where that can also favor Dench. I’m not really buying that. Dench is indeed a treasure, and the world will be ever poorer when she does retire, but I’m not seeing the narrative of doing her justice, considering she already has one. That, and she was already competing with Balfe in her own film, who many people considered the superior performance. On top of that, the overdue card is already going to Will Smith in Actor. Dench is a legend, no doubt, but with the hype train DeBose is riding, I think the Oscar is hers to lose. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Feb 11, 2022 6:20:08 GMT
I think Debose is vulnerable to being upset, mainly from Dench. People are really underestimating the narrative of one of AMPAS most popular actresses losing her sight and facing forced retirement. This may be the last chance to reward her. And AACTA have already rubber stamped it as a performance a country's film Academy is willing to give the win. Whatever you think of her performance, Dench's narrative is real. And Debose is enough of an unknown to most AMPAS voters where that can also favor Dench. I’m not really buying that. Dench is indeed a treasure, and the world will be ever poorer when she does retire, but I’m not seeing the narrative of doing her justice, considering she already has one. That, and she was already competing with Balfe in her own film, who many people considered the superior performance. On top of that, the overdue card is already going to Will Smith in Actor. Dench is a legend, no doubt, but with the hype train DeBose is riding, I think the Oscar is hers to lose. When you've got 8 Oscar nominations, all of them achieved after the age of 64, then I suspect AMPAS members feel Dench career easily merits at least 2 Oscars. So I don't think a single supporting win 25 years ago is something that would hold them back from giving her another Oscar. It'd be a partially sentimental win that voters won't begrudge. A nice gold watch to give one of their legends a possible final goodbye. Balfe not being nominated helps Dench...it doesn't hurt her. She now has no internal competition. Yes, Debose is the favorite, and Will probably win. But I'm just providing a scenario where she can get upset by someone, so people aren't surprised if it does happen  |
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 11, 2022 8:21:51 GMT
I think Debose is vulnerable to being upset, mainly from Dench. People are really underestimating the narrative of one of AMPAS most popular actresses losing her sight and facing forced retirement. This may be the last chance to reward her. And AACTA have already rubber stamped it as a performance a country's film Academy is willing to give the win. Whatever you think of her performance, Dench's narrative is real. And Debose is enough of an unknown to most AMPAS voters where that can also favor Dench. I agree that Debose is the frontrunner but I too believe Dench is the strongest threat amongst the other nominees. The fact that Balfe was snubbed means all the Belfast fans would vote for her. |
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Post by DanQuixote on Feb 11, 2022 8:57:01 GMT
I don’t think anything’s a lock this year, except for like Dune in Visual Effects and Cruella in Costumes.
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Post by JangoB on Feb 11, 2022 10:24:32 GMT
I don’t think anything’s a lock this year, except for like Dune in Visual Effects and Cruella in Costumes. I wouldn't be that sure about Cruella (although I am predicting it to win too) - I think Dune and WSS have a very solid shot at winning Costumes. I think Campion in Director is the biggest lock after Dune's VFX. Then I'd go with Drive My Car in International Film. And then Campion in Adapted. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 11, 2022 10:30:19 GMT
I think Campion in Director is the biggest lock after Dune's VFX. Then I'd go with Drive My Car in International Film. And then Campion in Adapted. Yeah I don't think Campion and DMC have any challengers in these categories. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 17, 2022 16:26:55 GMT
Smit-McPhee is ever safer. I don’t think I agree. Mostly because I think Kotsur is stronger than Dunst. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 17, 2022 16:27:51 GMT
I don’t think anything’s a lock this year, except for like Dune in Visual Effects and Cruella in Costumes. I didn’t say anybody was a lock (something I would never say before SAG. Just that she is strongest. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 17, 2022 16:36:01 GMT
Yeah I def don’t think KSM is a lock at all.
Campion feels like the strongest front runner in general. For acting specific I’d say it’s Debose followed by Smith.
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