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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 9, 2022 12:30:30 GMT
SAG nominees: Javier Bardem, Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith, Denzel Washington
All five of the nominees were nominated at the Globes and Oscars for best actor. Garfield and Smith won the Globe for best actor. Cumberbatch leads the field with the most best actor awards. 25 trophies to be exact. Smith and Cumberbatch are the only nominees with a BAFTA nomination.
82% of SAG best actor winners went on to win an acting Oscar. Only five times has the SAG best actor winner failed to win an acting Oscar. You had Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind, Daniel Day-Lewis for Gangs of New York, Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Caribbean, Denzel Washington for Fences and last year with Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. In 2001, Benicio Del Toro didn't win best actor at the Oscars, but he did for supporting actor.
Who do you guys think will win at SAG? Does this SAG winner go on to win best actor at the Oscars? Does Smith get a competitive advantage because he's the only SAG best actor nominee with an Ensemble nomination?
Personally, I think Smith is the heavy favorite for both SAG and Oscar. This is the type of performance SAG and Oscar members love to honor. I watched the movie last week for the first time (Won a free digital copy of the movie) and can't see him not winning this award. It is that good.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 9, 2022 12:35:55 GMT
Smith is the clear favorite here (in BAFTA, it's Cumberbatch), but if he loses, it's game over for him, and Cumberbatch has a chance to take it. Power of the Dog getting 4 nominations for acting in the Academy (and three here) shows support among actors, and KR getting in ensemble is somewhat balanced by Ellis missing.
Actually, now that I think about it, only 2 SAG nominees in the supporting categories made the cut, certainly the first time that happened (actress was barely better, 3/5).
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Post by JangoB on Feb 9, 2022 12:37:48 GMT
Mr. Smithers
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 10, 2022 1:34:21 GMT
Smith is the clear favorite here ( in BAFTA, it's Cumberbatch), but if he loses, it's game over for him, and Cumberbatch has a chance to take it. Power of the Dog getting 4 nominations for acting in the Academy (and three here) shows support among actors, and KR getting in ensemble is somewhat balanced by Ellis missing. Actually, now that I think about it, only 2 SAG nominees in the supporting categories made the cut, certainly the first time that happened (actress was barely better, 3/5). Why is that? King Richard did extremely well at the BAFTAs this year -- nominated for actor, supporting actress, and original screenplay. The BAFTAs have rewarded Best Actor trophies to both British Actors and American Actors -- pretty evenly down the middle. in the last 21 years, 14 BAFTA Best Actor winners went on to win Best Actor at the Oscars. In the last 11 years, they had only one miss -- 2013. Dallas Buyers Club had screener problems.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 10, 2022 10:47:50 GMT
Smith is the clear favorite here ( in BAFTA, it's Cumberbatch), but if he loses, it's game over for him, and Cumberbatch has a chance to take it. Power of the Dog getting 4 nominations for acting in the Academy (and three here) shows support among actors, and KR getting in ensemble is somewhat balanced by Ellis missing. Actually, now that I think about it, only 2 SAG nominees in the supporting categories made the cut, certainly the first time that happened (actress was barely better, 3/5). Why is that? King Richard did extremely well at the BAFTAs this year -- nominated for actor, supporting actress, and original screenplay. The BAFTAs have rewarded Best Actor trophies to both British Actors and American Actors -- pretty evenly down the middle. in the last 21 years, 14 BAFTA Best Actor winners went on to win Best Actor at the Oscars. In the last 11 years, they had only one miss -- 2013. Dallas Buyers Club had screener problems.
Again, you put blind faith in statistics- and in a year where BAFTA went 0/5 on Best Actress, and one of them didn't even made the long list. Fact is undeniable that African-American actors rarely do well at BAFTAs, specially on stories about them, Smith and Ellis were clearly jury saves, and Cumberbatch is a very popular local actor that never won in the BP frontrunner, at this point is silly to bet against him there. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 10, 2022 12:10:13 GMT
Why is that? King Richard did extremely well at the BAFTAs this year -- nominated for actor, supporting actress, and original screenplay. The BAFTAs have rewarded Best Actor trophies to both British Actors and American Actors -- pretty evenly down the middle. in the last 21 years, 14 BAFTA Best Actor winners went on to win Best Actor at the Oscars. In the last 11 years, they had only one miss -- 2013. Dallas Buyers Club had screener problems.
Again, you put blind faith in statistics- and in a year where BAFTA went 0/5 on Best Actress, and one of them didn't even made the long list. Fact is undeniable that African-American actors rarely do well at BAFTAs, specially on stories about them, Smith and Ellis were clearly jury saves, and Cumberbatch is a very popular local actor that never won in the BP frontrunner, at this point is silly to bet against him there. It's not just statistics here, look at the fact King Richard got 3 major BAFTA nominations. The BAFTA jury clearly liked the film. Only four black actors won Best Actor at the Oscars. Two of them won the BAFTA. I agree that Cumberbatch has a better SHOT at winning the BAFTA than he does at the SAG awards. That's true. Home turf and the "at least one Brit needs to win" rule could apply. However, I wouldn't dismiss Smith winning at BAFTA. That's my issue with your commentary. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 10, 2022 12:16:21 GMT
The BAFTA jury doesn't vote for the main awards, the whole voting body does, and Cumberbatch has the undeniable advantage, since Smith was at best #3 and at worst he wouldn't be a nominee at all with the traditional voting system.
Jamie Foxx won BAFTA in a year he swept AND there was no British actor nominated. Whitaker won in a year he swept and for a movie BAFTA loved way more than Oscars, giving 3 prizes, about a famous real life person from the commonwealth. Smith doesn't have any of that, there's zero reason to bet on him.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 10, 2022 12:27:17 GMT
Again, you put blind faith in statistics- and in a year where BAFTA went 0/5 on Best Actress, and one of them didn't even made the long list. Fact is undeniable that African-American actors rarely do well at BAFTAs, specially on stories about them, Smith and Ellis were clearly jury saves, and Cumberbatch is a very popular local actor that never won in the BP frontrunner, at this point is silly to bet against him there. It's not just statistics here, look at the fact King Richard got 3 major BAFTA nominations. The BAFTA jury clearly liked the film. Only four black actors won Best Actor at the Oscars. Two of them won the BAFTA. I agree that Cumberbatch has a better SHOT at winning the BAFTA than he does at the SAG awards. That's true. Home turf and the "at least one Brit needs to win" rule could apply. However, I wouldn't dismiss Smith winning at BAFTA. That's my issue with your commentary. 2 of those 4 had a BAFTA BP nomination (Poitier '58, Ejiofor '13 (winner)) and 3 of those 4 eventually won Oscar anyway (Poitier won BAFTA in '58 earlier) - 1 had a Best British Film nomination (Last King of Scotland - win) - only Foxx won it without any BP nod in any way British or overall. Missing BP probably ended the upset hope of Smith here at BAFTA ....... I think he has a chance but it seems quite small ......BAFTA has always loved the movies more than the actors being "outside" the movies .......if you remove the "black" qualifier there are for more things that make it harder for Smith here |
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 10, 2022 12:40:33 GMT
The BAFTA jury doesn't vote for the main awards, the whole voting body does, and Cumberbatch has the undeniable advantage, since Smith was at best #3 and at worst he wouldn't be a nominee at all with the traditional voting system. Jamie Foxx won BAFTA in a year he swept AND there was no British actor nominated. Whitaker won in a year he swept and for a movie BAFTA loved way more than Oscars, giving 3 prizes, about a famous real life person from the commonwealth. Smith doesn't have any of that, there's zero reason to bet on him. I am not denying that Cumberbatch has the "leg-up in the competition". I am just think it is silly to dismiss Smith as a potential winner. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 10, 2022 12:55:55 GMT
So far, everybody thinks Smith is going to win SAG. Does anybody think it is going to go toward somebody else? Cumberbatch does have the most wins. Who knows what the Critics Choice awards will say.
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