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Post by sirjeremy on Feb 8, 2022 18:33:09 GMT
In the history of double acting nominations from the same film in the same category, most of the time the Oscar goes to someone else. Plemons has obviously been around much longer than Smit-McPhee and has worked with more people. Like Smit-McPhee he's in a much-admired film so do you think vote-splitting will hurt Smit-McPhee's chances, if you think vote-spltting exists? I don't know how influential and well-connected Dunst is but of course her support may be a factor, too.
I've been thinking for a while Kotsur will win and now I'm more confident.
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Post by stephen on Feb 8, 2022 18:35:56 GMT
It didn't hurt Kaluuya or Rockwell.
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Post by JangoB on Feb 8, 2022 18:37:17 GMT
I don't see how it could affect Koda Spekz at all.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 8, 2022 18:41:26 GMT
It didn't hurt Kaluuya or Rockwell. My very first thought. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 8, 2022 18:42:21 GMT
It didn't hurt Kaluuya or Rockwell. Yes, and arguably Plemons is a weaker candidate than either Harrelson or Stansfield. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Feb 8, 2022 18:44:21 GMT
No. But I think his biggest threat is Ciaran Hinds. I think he can get the " great, but undervalued veteran" win.
Shit, I was also right about the stupidity of campaigning Jaime Dornan in Supporting and how Hinds (as the esteemed veteran) would have a much bigger edge in that category. They should have taken the chance and campaigned Dornan in lead. He may still have missed, but I think he could have given a reasonable challenge to Bardem for the 5th spot.
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Post by finniussnrub on Feb 8, 2022 18:50:28 GMT
No. Although didn't anyone think Plemons was more than just fine here?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2022 18:52:56 GMT
No, I think it only works to bolster The Power of the Dog as the undisputed frontrunner. All four of its principal cast members being nominated means it has deep support from the Acting Branch, the largest branch of the Academy.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 8, 2022 18:56:13 GMT
I don’t think so. I can still see KSM losing but I don’t think it would be bc he split the vote with Plemons.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 8, 2022 20:05:37 GMT
No, all it means is that AMPAS liked Power of the Dog even more than we thought they would. Getting in for sound, editing, and production design where it was totally unexcepted just further proves that. Smit-McPhee has been steamrolling all season and nothing's gonna stop him now.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2022 18:38:38 GMT
I would agree with the vote-splitting theory if Plemons had been a strong contender, or even a predicted nominee, from the start, rather than a surprise inclusion. For that reason I'm not sure he will be able to build enough momentum to threaten Smit-McPhee's frontrunner status.
What his nomination shows, as many others pointed out, is that his film has support across the board.
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Post by hugobolso on Feb 9, 2022 18:40:34 GMT
Unfortunately under 30 year old male actors don't win oscar. There are very few exceptions.
It's like over 50 year old actresses wining oscars.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 9, 2022 23:02:13 GMT
In the history of double acting nominations from the same film in the same category, most of the time the Oscar goes to someone else. Plemons has obviously been around much longer than Smit-McPhee and has worked with more people. Like Smit-McPhee he's in a much-admired film so do you think vote-splitting will hurt Smit-McPhee's chances, if you think vote-spltting exists? I don't know how influential and well-connected Dunst is but of course her support may be a factor, too. I've been thinking for a while Kotsur will win and now I'm more confident. Fact check time:
DOUBLE NOMINEE and ONE OF THE NOMINEES WINS
Judas and the Black Messiah - Kaluuya
Three Billboards - Rockwell
The Helo - Spencer
The Fighter - Leo
Chicago - Zeta-Jones Bullets over Broadway - Wiest Kramer vs. Kramer - Streep Paper Moon - O'Neal Airport - Hayes Terms of Endearment - Nicholson Ordinary People - Hutton Julia - Roberts Godfather Part 2 - DeNiro (3 acting nominees) The Last Picture Show - Johnson
14 in supporting roles
Now the contrary:
Godfather Rocky Platoon Bugsy The Irishman Nashville The Color Purple Working Girl Enemies a Love Story Almost Famous Doubt Up in the Air The Favourite
13 times since the 1970s where the film with a double nominees didn't an Oscar in that category.
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Post by futuretrunks on Feb 10, 2022 0:22:31 GMT
I hope so!
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 10, 2022 1:24:30 GMT
No, all it means is that AMPAS liked Power of the Dog even more than we thought they would. Getting in for sound, editing, and production design where it was totally unexcepted just further proves that. Smit-McPhee has been steamrolling all season and nothing's gonna stop him now. That is precisely what happened. The Academy gave TPOTD a gigantic thumbs up, nominating it for 8 major Oscar nominations. Belfast and King Richard had the second most major Oscar nominations with 5. We will see what the Guilds say. |
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Post by sirjeremy on Feb 10, 2022 8:35:14 GMT
In the history of double acting nominations from the same film in the same category, most of the time the Oscar goes to someone else. Plemons has obviously been around much longer than Smit-McPhee and has worked with more people. Like Smit-McPhee he's in a much-admired film so do you think vote-splitting will hurt Smit-McPhee's chances, if you think vote-spltting exists? I don't know how influential and well-connected Dunst is but of course her support may be a factor, too. I've been thinking for a while Kotsur will win and now I'm more confident. Fact check time:
DOUBLE NOMINEE and ONE OF THE NOMINEES WINS
Judas and the Black Messiah - Kaluuya
Three Billboards - Rockwell
The Helo - Spencer
The Fighter - Leo
Chicago - Zeta-Jones Bullets over Broadway - Wiest Kramer vs. Kramer - Streep Paper Moon - O'Neal Airport - Hayes Terms of Endearment - Nicholson Ordinary People - Hutton Julia - Roberts Godfather Part 2 - DeNiro (3 acting nominees) The Last Picture Show - Johnson
14 in supporting roles
Now the contrary:
Godfather Rocky Platoon Bugsy The Irishman Nashville The Color Purple Working Girl Enemies a Love Story Almost Famous Doubt Up in the Air The Favourite
13 times since the 1970s where the film with a double nominees didn't an Oscar in that category.
You forgot about Tootsie, The Last Picture Show (Leachman and Burstyn), and Gosford Park but my point was about all decades and in all four acting categories. |
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