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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 4, 2022 2:45:03 GMT
Normally I would spread this out more, but BAFTA had to nominate films today rather than earlier in the week.
Lady Gaga and Nicole Kidman are locks. Gaga was nominated for the four major best actress nominations and won the NY film critics award. Nicole Kidman was nominated at SAG and won the Globe for Best Actress in a Drama.
Here are your other contenders:
Jessica Chastain & Olivia Colman - Globe, Critics Choice, SAG
Alana Haim - Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA
Kristen Stewart - Globe, Critics Choice
Jennifer Hudson - SAG
Emilia Jones, Tessa Thompson, Renata Reinsve, Joanna Scanlan - BAFTA.
Rachel Ziegler - Won NBR and Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical.
Penelope Cruz - Won LA and NSFC.
Marion Cotillard, Jennifer Lawrence, Emma Stone - Globe (Comedy/Musical) nominee.
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morton
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Post by morton on Feb 4, 2022 3:05:26 GMT
I think Colman is still in. I thought she might have a small chance of winning before BAFTA because she surprisingly made SAG because after Stewart missed SAG, no one really made sense to me as a winner, but she should have made BAFTA if she was winning this year.
Then Haim who I had ruled out, but Licorice Pizza is doing very well, and there’s usually at least one first time nominee, and I think she has a better shot than Stewart, Jones, and Zegler.
For the final spot, I’m still going with Cruz. I don’t know about missing the BAFTA long list, but she won the Volpu Cup and two of the trifecta, and is a precious winner with SPC behind her. Plus I suspect there will be at least one surprise in this category.
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Post by quetee on Feb 4, 2022 5:52:19 GMT
Something cray cray is gonna happen here. I can see either the Coda girl getting in here or the little boy getting in best actor.
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Post by JangoB on Feb 4, 2022 8:17:53 GMT
I'm feeling Chastain, Colman and Stewart. Hoping for Haim though!
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 4, 2022 9:02:15 GMT
I think on paper EVERY one of the potential 5 nominees including Gaga and Kidman could be snubbed - every one of them  Chastain I think gets support people think is Kidman's - I think her performance generates more actor respect (and is better btw) and is in surface ways like Kidman's too...........and I think she could actually win SAG though Gaga has that ensemble nod which is a big plus for her............ Still Chastain is in.....I'm guessing Colman gets in and Lost Daughter has a big, surprising, overperforming day is my guess ........I think Licorice Pizza gets slapped here where the thing everyone loves about the movie (Haim) is inexplicably squeezed out I think anybody could be 5 just like anybody could miss.......I think it's Cruz......... BUT Reinsve is where all the energy is atm and she has 0 votes so far from MAR because we love our own narratives when sometimes we're just too close to see it I guess ...... Haim, Stewart could swipe #5 ........it's that log-jammed and tight....... |
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 4, 2022 9:07:36 GMT
Colman, Haim and Chastain
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 4, 2022 9:39:54 GMT
I think Chastain misses. She missed so many times in the 10s that I am inclined to believe that they just don't love her all that much. For now I say it's Colman, Haim, and Stewart.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Feb 4, 2022 11:14:52 GMT
Haim, Colman and Thompson. But I think Lawrence, Stewart and Cruz could be spoilers.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 4, 2022 11:53:15 GMT
Colman making SAG and Globes and missing AACTA and BAFTA is one of the weirdest things.
I say Haim is in, she was probably Top 2 at BAFTA and the movie is doing very well, plus she fits the profile of the young actress we all thought Zegler was.
I think Colman is in but in a shaky fourth place. After that, I'd say Chastain because she still has the acclaim and a decent critical run.
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akittystang
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Post by akittystang on Feb 4, 2022 13:03:49 GMT
As long as Stewart and Chastain make it I'll be happy.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2022 13:51:34 GMT
Again, nothing has changed for me...
Chastain
Colman
Gaga
Kidman
Stewart
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Post by stephen on Feb 4, 2022 13:56:31 GMT
Chastain and Colman still feel pretty secure for me. That fifth slot is where things are in flux. Stewart could still theoretically swing back and take it, but I'm starting to get a funny tickle about Haim and Reinsve. The former has a film that is surging at the perfect time, and the latter feels like the quintessential international performance that gets enough passion votes to break in. I know people are saying that Cruz is likelier because she's a big name and all, but I think Reinsve is likelier.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 4, 2022 16:35:29 GMT
At this point, only Gaga and Kidman have a chance of winning.
The other 3 will basically be filler slots. Colman and Stewart took huge hits by missing BAFTA, where they should have favored. Same with Garfield in Actor.
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