Who gets remaining three Best Actor spots?

Nothing's changed for me. Garfield, Washington and DiCaprio.

DiCaprio's BAFTA nom is a bit strange considering it makes little sense as a jury pick, and equally little sense as a top 2 vote. Not sure what to make of it. If he were snubbed, I'd have pegged his Oscar nom chances at 2%, but now it has to be at like 40% or so.

Washington,  Garfield and Bardem.

First two are obvious. No explanation s neccesary. With Bardem, Being The Ricardos feels like it's likely to be much stronger with AMPAS than it is with the Brits, especially based on Guild performance. Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz 's story is uniquely Hollywood and American. They are much bigger icons in  the States and in Hollywood. and I feel like that will give Bardem the slight edge for the 5th spot.

Well 1X nominated white youngish males often miss Gyllenhaal, Hawke (not that young) etc.......but I say Garfield wasn't hurt that much today - winning was always a stretch - so he's in. He's 3rd or maybe dropped to 4th......could miss, but I don't see it.

DiCaprio may be 4th or gulp 3rd - I can not believe I'm saying that but DLU has a higher upside with the Academy than BAFTA and it had a great day at BAFTA.......

Washington is 5th and throughout this year has been 4th prior to this DiCaprio surge....... Denzel is in for the same reason he's not winning (and never was) - he gives a movie star turn - identifiable, in his past history but not enough to "transform" - not enough to win a 3rd......he's been overrated as a "lock" nominee all year........BUT if Garfield misses he is helped the most since again he brings his gravitas with him......will be interesting to see what TToM does Oscar morning - there is a Shakespeare bias, you've seen it, no one really passionately supports the movie........but its peers might.

Prior to the BAFTA I would have said Cage as a NGNG pick but that was always a stretch and now seems willingly wrong if I stick with that so ......would love it if it was Rex who is my #2 but ......well that's my heart messing with my head......again .......

Washington has NEVER needed BAFTA.  Him being nominated there or not has zero bearing on his standing in the OSCAR race (especially since he was always going to be a Jury save if he got in. So a random selection of 7 to 10 people deciding not  to nod him means zilch to his standing in the race with voters).He hit all the precursors he needs. If anything,  I actually think his regularly scheduled snub there helps his chances of potentially being a surprise winner at SAG. Seen a few actors on social media express surprise and disgust at his snub:




It's worth putting a few bucks on Denzel winning SAG  in light of BAFTA  being BAFTA  with him . Still a couple weeks of voting left.


I think all this shows is Denzel is probably at least 3rd, and always has been. If Garfield can't even get the support of the British block,  which should have been guaranteed,  he's not a strong as people thought and likely is not ahead.
of Denzel. I think he can make it in, but a snub wouldn't surprise me, and I have him behind Denzel.

5th spot is likely between Bardem and DiCaprio (his SAG miss was huge and the fact that he's won nothing and won't win anything is too big to ignore. He'd be pure filler. Couldn't even get in AACTA). I already said why I think Bardem might edge it, but there is a scenario where Garifield misses and DiCaprio and Bardem both get in. Could be tight between  those 3.

Garfield, Denzel, and DiCaprio.

To me the Bardem nomination and the DiCaprio snub at SAG is just a fluke, and it's the SAG members just being petty against him.

Yeah, I don't see the snub as SAG being petty against DiCaprio, but it is still a very weird miss for him, especially if he winds up getting the Oscar nomination.

Yeah..........Maybe "petty" isn't exactly right  - though I get what you meant obviously - but "fluke" possibly is the exact right word.

You can say he got swallowed up in the Ensemble SAG nod.....you can say his missing is not as significant as has been made out (this year) - given his comedic role and the size of the cast and the now apparent strength of the picture you can say his position improved dramatically in the last 24 hours too.......... 

Could he miss.......yes..........aside from Smith and Cumby .......there are no locks in BA aside from those 2 guys (not even Garfield........not even Washington)..........but I think you reasonably could call DiCap 3rd and say the picture is not performing as well  as we expect - love it or hate it -  now without an acting nom.

That's the rebuttal to that "but he missed SAG" argument.........it is eyebrow raising but not a dealbreaker especially when BtR looks visibly weaker than it did on SAG nomination morning and DLU looks infinitely stronger........

I’m not brave enough now to go with someone other than Bardem or DiCaprio, but I do think those #1 votes could mean there’s a surprise for the last spot on Tuesday.

Of course some years it seems like it will go that way, but performances like Robert Duvall in The Judge or Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook somehow get enough #1 votes, but then in other years we get pleasant surprises like Marion Cotillard getting in for Two Days, One Night or huge shocks like Marina de Tavira being nominated despite not getting in anywhere else not even at any regionals I believe. 

I think Garfield is safe and then is likely 2 out of Washington, DiCaprio, and Bardem. I’ll still hold out delusional hope for a Cage passion nom but don’t think it’ll actually happen.