Post by JangoB on Feb 3, 2022 23:13:56 GMT
Well, folks, all the major nominations have been announced so now it's only a matter of time until we see what's nominated for an Oscar. So let's post our final predictions!
These are not ranked:
That's about it for me. I'm not doing the Documentary or the Short categories because I simply don't know much about them this year due to lack of interest. But yeah, here are my final predictions. Share yours!
These are not ranked:
BEST PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Drive My Car
Being the Ricardos
alt: tick, tick...BOOM!
Fuck it, I'm going with Drive My Car here. I dunno, somehow tick, tick...BOOM! never quite felt right to me here while Drive My Car seems to be something that could surprise. At least I got that feeling when the CEO of AMPAS said that they got the largest number of ballots ever from 82 countries.
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Drive My Car
Being the Ricardos
alt: tick, tick...BOOM!
Fuck it, I'm going with Drive My Car here. I dunno, somehow tick, tick...BOOM! never quite felt right to me here while Drive My Car seems to be something that could surprise. At least I got that feeling when the CEO of AMPAS said that they got the largest number of ballots ever from 82 countries.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
alt: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
As sad as I am to leave Spielberg out...I guess it's what's gonna happen. The industry seems to have shown us that WSS is more of a Bridge of Spies than a Lincoln. Of course there's still hope due to that DGA nomination but I just don't know who else could be eliminated. Branagh seems to be going strong and his case is not quite like McDonagh's or Farrelly's - he does everything to make sure that his movie seems 'directed' as opposed to those. A Spielberg snub would not be in the same league either as his achievement is among the flashiest of the season. I just think that they take Spielberg for granted these days and I guess it'll take a truly undeniable movie for him to be nominated again. But I'm praying to the movie gods to see him here on Tuesday.
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
alt: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
As sad as I am to leave Spielberg out...I guess it's what's gonna happen. The industry seems to have shown us that WSS is more of a Bridge of Spies than a Lincoln. Of course there's still hope due to that DGA nomination but I just don't know who else could be eliminated. Branagh seems to be going strong and his case is not quite like McDonagh's or Farrelly's - he does everything to make sure that his movie seems 'directed' as opposed to those. A Spielberg snub would not be in the same league either as his achievement is among the flashiest of the season. I just think that they take Spielberg for granted these days and I guess it'll take a truly undeniable movie for him to be nominated again. But I'm praying to the movie gods to see him here on Tuesday.
BEST ACTOR
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick...BOOM!
alt: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up
Sticking with Bardem here. Although a Leo nomination wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. Not sure who else can be here though...maybe this category is open to some weird surprise? Could Mahershala Ali randomly pop up here or something?
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick...BOOM!
alt: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up
Sticking with Bardem here. Although a Leo nomination wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. Not sure who else can be here though...maybe this category is open to some weird surprise? Could Mahershala Ali randomly pop up here or something?
BEST ACTRESS
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
alt: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
I still believe that Stewart's intense campaign will pay off. I think the Academy membership can support her even though her nomination is hanging by a thread. And, like with Spielberg, I'm just not brave enough to actually predict Haim here only to be disappointed on Tuesday. So I'll just be hoping to see her here. And of course it's gonna be somebody boring like Jennifer Hudson or something
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
alt: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
I still believe that Stewart's intense campaign will pay off. I think the Academy membership can support her even though her nomination is hanging by a thread. And, like with Spielberg, I'm just not brave enough to actually predict Haim here only to be disappointed on Tuesday. So I'll just be hoping to see her here. And of course it's gonna be somebody boring like Jennifer Hudson or something
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
alt: Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
I think there's a chance of a Plemons coattal nomination but otherwise I'm struggling to predict anyone else other than these five. Yes, there's Ben Affleck but I dunno, it seems like an invisible movie. Unless there's some hard behind-the-scenes campaigning going on.
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
alt: Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
I think there's a chance of a Plemons coattal nomination but otherwise I'm struggling to predict anyone else other than these five. Yes, there's Ben Affleck but I dunno, it seems like an invisible movie. Unless there's some hard behind-the-scenes campaigning going on.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ruth Negga, Passing
alt: Judi Dench, Belfast
Seems like a set five...but maybe Dame Judi will steal the voters' hearts with a brief performance yet again?
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ruth Negga, Passing
alt: Judi Dench, Belfast
Seems like a set five...but maybe Dame Judi will steal the voters' hearts with a brief performance yet again?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast
Don't Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Being the Ricardos
alt: The French Dispatch
Gonna go boring here. I can absolutely see Dispatch over King Richard here but other than that I don't have any options (Mike Mills doesn't seem to be a factor here this year...unfortunately).
Belfast
Don't Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Being the Ricardos
alt: The French Dispatch
Gonna go boring here. I can absolutely see Dispatch over King Richard here but other than that I don't have any options (Mike Mills doesn't seem to be a factor here this year...unfortunately).
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Drive My Car
The Lost Daughter
alt: West Side Story
I think there's still a very strong chance of a Tony Kushner nomination but this season has let me down in regards to WSS so I'm in pessimist mode regarding its chances now. So I'm not predicting him. Although a sci-fi adaptation also seems like a weird nominee here. But I guess they'll appreciate the task of adapting it itself. And as far as WSS is concerned, a lot of them will probably just think that it's the same script as before...which of course it isn't. And musicals aren't exactly a favorite of the writers branch anyway.
CODA
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Drive My Car
The Lost Daughter
alt: West Side Story
I think there's still a very strong chance of a Tony Kushner nomination but this season has let me down in regards to WSS so I'm in pessimist mode regarding its chances now. So I'm not predicting him. Although a sci-fi adaptation also seems like a weird nominee here. But I guess they'll appreciate the task of adapting it itself. And as far as WSS is concerned, a lot of them will probably just think that it's the same script as before...which of course it isn't. And musicals aren't exactly a favorite of the writers branch anyway.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
alt: Belfast
The Belfast BAFTA snub gave me hope that the Oscars will follow suit. It's simply hard for me to imagine the AMPAS cinematographers will go for something as creaky as Belfast. And it's even harder for me to see them snubbing the type of work that's featured in WSS. But the lack of both ASC and BAFTA sure makes it a risky prediction.
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
alt: Belfast
The Belfast BAFTA snub gave me hope that the Oscars will follow suit. It's simply hard for me to imagine the AMPAS cinematographers will go for something as creaky as Belfast. And it's even harder for me to see them snubbing the type of work that's featured in WSS. But the lack of both ASC and BAFTA sure makes it a risky prediction.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
West Side Story
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
Cyrano
alt: The Tragedy of Macbeth
They seem to love Sarah Greenwood enough for Cyrano to get in here. The other four seem rock solid to me. Maybe the artistic choices of Macbeth can push it in here but I think Cyrano aligns more with Academy's tastes.
Dune
West Side Story
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
Cyrano
alt: The Tragedy of Macbeth
They seem to love Sarah Greenwood enough for Cyrano to get in here. The other four seem rock solid to me. Maybe the artistic choices of Macbeth can push it in here but I think Cyrano aligns more with Academy's tastes.
BEST EDITING
Belfast
Don't Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
alt: West Side Story
The ACE + BAFTA combo for Bond does sound tempting but Casino Royale and, more importantly, Skyfall had the same nominations too but missed the Oscar lineup. So I'm going with the prestige sports movie (assuming the other four will be here too). It's still bewildering to me that WSS keeps getting snubbed because it's such a flashy achievement...so I'm keeping it as an alternate pick because I'm hoping for AMPAS to maybe see the light. The Power of the Dog kinda seems like a Roma-type snub to me - too gradual in its pace and elliptical in its narrative.
Belfast
Don't Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
alt: West Side Story
The ACE + BAFTA combo for Bond does sound tempting but Casino Royale and, more importantly, Skyfall had the same nominations too but missed the Oscar lineup. So I'm going with the prestige sports movie (assuming the other four will be here too). It's still bewildering to me that WSS keeps getting snubbed because it's such a flashy achievement...so I'm keeping it as an alternate pick because I'm hoping for AMPAS to maybe see the light. The Power of the Dog kinda seems like a Roma-type snub to me - too gradual in its pace and elliptical in its narrative.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don't Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The French Dispatch
Encanto
alt: Spencer
Not predicting double Greenwood anymore due to Spencer seeming pretty much dead season-wise but it's very difficult for me to come up with another alternate pick. I'm actually kinda doubtful about Encanto as well due to the songs really overwhelming the score but I just don't know what else to predict.
Don't Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The French Dispatch
Encanto
alt: Spencer
Not predicting double Greenwood anymore due to Spencer seeming pretty much dead season-wise but it's very difficult for me to come up with another alternate pick. I'm actually kinda doubtful about Encanto as well due to the songs really overwhelming the score but I just don't know what else to predict.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
'Down to Joy', Belfast
'Just Look Up', Don't Look Up
'No Time to Die', No Time to Die
'Dos Oruguitas', Encanto
'Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)', Respect
alt: 'Be Alive', King Richard
Still not quite feeling Beyonce here but I can see tons of combinations happening. Including Diane Warren, of course!
'Down to Joy', Belfast
'Just Look Up', Don't Look Up
'No Time to Die', No Time to Die
'Dos Oruguitas', Encanto
'Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)', Respect
alt: 'Be Alive', King Richard
Still not quite feeling Beyonce here but I can see tons of combinations happening. Including Diane Warren, of course!
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Dune
West Side Story
Cyrano
Cruella
Nightmare Alley
alt: House of Gucci
Feels weird not to predict Janty Yates and her incredible work but the double design nominations for Cyrano just seem to make sense to me. If they'll snub Jacqueline Durran for Spencer, they have a chance to nominate her for that one.
Dune
West Side Story
Cyrano
Cruella
Nightmare Alley
alt: House of Gucci
Feels weird not to predict Janty Yates and her incredible work but the double design nominations for Cyrano just seem to make sense to me. If they'll snub Jacqueline Durran for Spencer, they have a chance to nominate her for that one.
BEST SOUND
Belfast
Dune
West Side Story
No Time to Die
A Quiet Place Part II
alt: The Power of the Dog
Quite tough to pick the eventual five but I settled with these. The Power of the Dog seems like a Chicago 7/The Irishman type of a deal when CAS nominates a quieter prestige contender which the AMPAS then snubs. But I can see pretty much any movie from the shortlist happen here.
Belfast
Dune
West Side Story
No Time to Die
A Quiet Place Part II
alt: The Power of the Dog
Quite tough to pick the eventual five but I settled with these. The Power of the Dog seems like a Chicago 7/The Irishman type of a deal when CAS nominates a quieter prestige contender which the AMPAS then snubs. But I can see pretty much any movie from the shortlist happen here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Free Guy
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Godzilla vs. Kong
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
alt: The Matrix Resurrections
Feels weird not to have Bond here but this branch is all about abundant CGI effects and Bond is more of a practical deal. Its guild strength sure does sound promising though so maybe it'll appear here. But I'm going with the more obviously VFX-heavy movies.
Dune
Free Guy
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Godzilla vs. Kong
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
alt: The Matrix Resurrections
Feels weird not to have Bond here but this branch is all about abundant CGI effects and Bond is more of a practical deal. Its guild strength sure does sound promising though so maybe it'll appear here. But I'm going with the more obviously VFX-heavy movies.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Dune
House of Gucci
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Coming 2 America
Cruella
alt: Cyrano
Maybe I should stick with Cyrano over Coming 2 America...but hey, why not risk it? It's not that much of a risk anyway - Coming 2 America is among the flashier contenders here.
Dune
House of Gucci
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Coming 2 America
Cruella
alt: Cyrano
Maybe I should stick with Cyrano over Coming 2 America...but hey, why not risk it? It's not that much of a risk anyway - Coming 2 America is among the flashier contenders here.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Flee
The Worst Person in the World
A Hero
Drive My Car
The Hand of God
alt: Compartment #6
Seems fairly straightforward. But maybe they'll throw in some wild card. I'm not gonna go adventurous with my predictions though.
Flee
The Worst Person in the World
A Hero
Drive My Car
The Hand of God
alt: Compartment #6
Seems fairly straightforward. But maybe they'll throw in some wild card. I'm not gonna go adventurous with my predictions though.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Flee
Encanto
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
alt: Belle
Don't have to much to say. I suppose Raya is the vulnerable one here.
Flee
Encanto
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
alt: Belle
Don't have to much to say. I suppose Raya is the vulnerable one here.
That's about it for me. I'm not doing the Documentary or the Short categories because I simply don't know much about them this year due to lack of interest. But yeah, here are my final predictions. Share yours!
