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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 29, 2022 13:41:12 GMT
Belfast
CODA Don't Look Up
Dune King Richard Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog tick, tick...Boom!
West Side Story
All of these nominated for best picture at AFI, Globes, Critics Choice and PGA. Belfast, Dune, LP, TPOTD, and WSS were nominated at the DGAs. KR and DLU got nominated for a WGA, SAGE, and ACE. CODA was nominated for SAGE and the WGA. TTB! was nominated for the WGA and ACE.
Do you believe any of those nine best picture contenders will not get nominated for Best Picture?
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 29, 2022 13:44:05 GMT
tick, tick... BOOM! is not a lock, but getting PGA was a big boost. Theoretically, Being The Ricardos should be ahead of it, with the Best Actress frontrunner and likely nominations in Actor and Screenplay.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 29, 2022 14:05:53 GMT
tick, tick...Boom! ...........and BtR are not locks atm the others are though from PGA .....PGA often tosses 1 or 2 curveballs that miss Oscar - the possible curveballs from Oscar make it fun
Depends how those 2 do in some other awards - if Garfield can steal SAG - and I'd say he's #2 at SAG actually - TTB would be a lot more likely to be in........if Gaga can steal SAG - and she's also #2 there imo - HoG could maybe leapfrog BtR (doubt it but BtR is product so you never know)........Kidman wins, she drags her picture even with Bardem missing (possible) ..........Washington who's probably 4th on paper is always a threat at SAG to win and his movie has the crafts and pedigree to drag it into picture.......his problem is he won SAG for Fences........he shouldn't have.......it's like "fate" ruined his own narrative ......I bet he'd love to give that SAG back to get a career one this year and improve his narrative because he was never beating Affleck in '16
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 29, 2022 14:15:47 GMT
Agree with the two above, TTB is by no means a lock.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 29, 2022 14:16:11 GMT
tick, tick...Boom! ...........and BtR are not locks atm the others are though from PGA .....PGA often tosses 1 or 2 curveballs that miss Oscar - the possible curveballs from Oscar make it fun Depends how those 2 do in some other awards - if Garfield can steal SAG - and I'd say he's #2 at SAG actually - TTB would be a lot more likely to be in........if Gaga can steal SAG - and she's also #2 there imo - HoG could maybe leapfrog BtR (doubt it but BtR is product so you never know)........Kidman wins, she drags her picture even with Bardem missing (possible) ..........Washington who's probably 4th on paper is always a threat at SAG to win and his movie has the crafts and pedigree to drag it into picture.......his problem is he won SAG for Fences........he shouldn't have.......it's like "fate" ruined his own narrative ......I bet he'd love to give that SAG back to get a career one this year and improve his narrative because he was never beating Affleck in '16 I didn't mention Being the Ricardos in the original list.
TTB! is the most vulnerable to missing, but I think it is going to get nominated. Garfield's buzz is way too strong for the film to miss Best Picture.
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Jan 29, 2022 15:07:30 GMT
TTB is not a lock but I'm predicting it. Ricardos will probably nab the tenth spot, though I wouldn't entirely count out Nightmare Alley or Tragedy of Macbeth yet.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 29, 2022 15:22:04 GMT
TTB is not a lock but I'm predicting it. Ricardos will probably nab the tenth spot, though I wouldn't entirely count out Nightmare Alley or Tragedy of Macbeth yet. Martin Scorsese recently wrote an op-ed for the LA times, urging people to watch Nightmare Alley and insists it's a masterpiece. I wonder if that's going to boost its chances of getting nominated. |
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Jan 29, 2022 15:39:18 GMT
TTB is not a lock but I'm predicting it. Ricardos will probably nab the tenth spot, though I wouldn't entirely count out Nightmare Alley or Tragedy of Macbeth yet. Martin Scorsese recently wrote an op-ed for the LA times, urging people to watch Nightmare Alley and insists it's a masterpiece. I wonder if that's going to boost its chances of getting nominated. I was surprised by how much I loved Alley (easily my favorite del Toro in years) and would be very happy to see it sneak in. Props to Marty for throwing it some much-needed goodwill |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 29, 2022 16:28:58 GMT
Washington who's probably 4th on paper is always a threat at SAG to win and his movie has the crafts and pedigree to drag it into picture.......his problem is he won SAG for Fences........he shouldn't have.......it's like "fate" ruined his own narrative ......I bet he'd love to give that SAG back to get a career one this year and improve his narrative because he was never beating Affleck in '16 Denzel won SAG for the right film. He not only directed it, but won a Tony for it and has a history with August Wilson. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 29, 2022 16:52:34 GMT
Washington who's probably 4th on paper is always a threat at SAG to win and his movie has the crafts and pedigree to drag it into picture.......his problem is he won SAG for Fences........he shouldn't have.......it's like "fate" ruined his own narrative ......I bet he'd love to give that SAG back to get a career one this year and improve his narrative because he was never beating Affleck in '16 Denzel won SAG for the right film. He not only directed it, but won a Tony for it and has a history with August Wilson. Ok, but that's not the point ..........the point is it was his only "big precursor" against Affleck and gave the illlusion that he had a chance to win the Oscar which he did not once he missed a BAFTA nod.........he was done. If he DIDN'T win that SAG for that role he'd be due now and winning SAG would build a narrative for his 3rd Oscar this year which he never had for Fences since Affleck won everything else......... Fate screwed Denzel Washington actually ........ Side note: I saw him on stage in Fences - I think I'm the only one here who saw him in that role ....... |
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 29, 2022 16:55:11 GMT
I hated Fences and I hated Denzel in Fences, he'd have been a much more deserving winner for Macbeth.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 29, 2022 17:01:59 GMT
I hated Fences and I hated Denzel in Fences, he'd have been a much more deserving winner for Macbeth. That was the point. Troy wasn't suppose to be a likable character, and you were suppose to dislike it. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 29, 2022 17:11:06 GMT
I hated Fences and I hated Denzel in Fences, he'd have been a much more deserving winner for Macbeth. There's a great discussion to be had on this issue because I totally agree or at least agree that he'd be a much more "logical" winner this year - although he's not my personal win (I have him 4th or 5th atm, Cumby/Rex/Phoenix/Washington & Smith........ haven't seen Dinklage) His character disappears in the end of Fences........he already had a Tony for Fences ..........VERY few actors win a BA Tony & Oscar for the same part - like you have to go way back to find it happening (Scofield etc) ........and to win a 3rd Oscar for Fences was a non-starter anyway since Affleck (deservedly imo) swept everything. But TToM he goes across the whole film, acts opposite an "equal", for a great director, pulls off something he never has - AND no one has that SAG on lock in 2021 ........I don't see how anybody can reasonably argue his winning SAG was "a good thing" for Denzel Washington - it was a bad thing ........because it's one of the reasons he won't win the Oscar this year either .......if Affleck is going to sweep them all anyway what difference did SAG '16 matter except for people to wrongly get their hopes up? He had no chance in 2016, maybe you could be fooled with his SAG and had a little daylight - but no BAFTA nod killed him that year........other years it didn't matter but that year .........it was everything to him |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 29, 2022 17:17:38 GMT
I've been predicting Tick Tick Boom for a while now but it's at the back of the list so a miss is certainly possible. Looking at this group it is shocking how many of them feel like locks.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 29, 2022 17:19:02 GMT
All discussions on this board will eventually lead to Denzel Washington.
Anyways I’m personally predicting all 9 but “lock” is far too strong of a word. Of course TTB! is most vulnerable followed probably by DLU. Both movies will probably be strong contenders in only one additional above the line category.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 29, 2022 17:24:01 GMT
All discussions on this board will eventually lead to Denzel Washington.
Well, in this case it ties into the thread topic since his picture is borderline a BP nominee like TTB (and HoG & BtR on the actress side) so the lead performance winning a remaining precursor majorly affects that potential BP group......
This isn't a year where the fringe films are certain "ins" without a precursor except TTB and BtR maybe- they just aren't strong enough. to be locks.....
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 29, 2022 17:26:00 GMT
I hated Fences and I hated Denzel in Fences, he'd have been a much more deserving winner for Macbeth. There's a great discussion to be had on this issue because I totally agree or at least agree that he'd be a much more "logical" winner this year - although he's not my personal win (I have him 4th or 5th atm, Cumby/Rex/Phoenix/Washington & Smith........ haven't seen Dinklage) His character disappears in the end of Fences........he already had a Tony for Fences ..........VERY few actors win a BA Tony & Oscar for the same part - like you have to go way back to find it happening (Scofield etc) ........and to win a 3rd Oscar for Fences was a non-starter anyway since Affleck (deservedly imo) swept everything. But TToM he goes across the whole film, acts opposite an "equal", for a great director, pulls off something he never has - AND no one has that SAG on lock in 2021 ........I don't see how anybody can reasonably argue his winning SAG was "a good thing" for Denzel Washington - it was a bad thing ........because it's one of the reasons he won't win the Oscar this year either .......if Affleck is going to sweep them all anyway what difference did SAG '16 matter except for people to wrongly get their hopes up? He had no chance in 2016, maybe you could be fooled with his SAG and had a little daylight - but no BAFTA nod killed him that year........other years it didn't matter but that year .........it was everything to him Yeah, I'm glad Affleck won that year. In general, I find myself strongly at odds with the awards the Academy has given to great actors for the wrong performances, their constant catching up makes everything seem wrong even when they want to do the right thing, and Kidman this year will be just another case of it.
Anyway, if there's one film I'd truly love to see kicked out of this list of presumed locks is Don't Look Up.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 29, 2022 17:37:34 GMT
Denzel won SAG for the right film. He not only directed it, but won a Tony for it and has a history with August Wilson. Ok, but that's not the point ..........the point is it was his only "big precursor" against Affleck and gave the illlusion that he had a chance to win the Oscar which he did not once he missed a BAFTA nod.........he was done. If he DIDN'T win that SAG for that role he'd be due now and winning SAG would build a narrative for his 3rd Oscar this year which he never had for Fences since Affleck won everything else......... Fate screwed Denzel Washington actually ........ Side note: I saw him on stage in Fences - I think I'm the only one here who saw him in that role ....... Denzel's narrative would even be tougher now - against an A-list actor who has never won and whose film, King Richard, has performed better at SAG and with the industry, guilds, BAFTA long list - than TTOM. |
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 29, 2022 17:40:41 GMT
tick, tick... BOOM! is not a lock, but getting PGA was a big boost. Theoretically, Being The Ricardos should be ahead of it, with the Best Actress frontrunner and likely nominations in Actor and Screenplay. In what world is Bardem "likely"?? SAG was a fluke, he's fighting for the 5th slot as much as the other 2 or 3 guys. And TTB is waaay ahead of BTR. Waaay more passion with fans & even the industry. Theoretically, I'd put "Surprise Nominee" way ahead of Bardem. 😄 |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 29, 2022 17:48:24 GMT
All discussions on this board will eventually lead to Denzel Washington.Well, in this case it ties into the thread topic since his picture is borderline a BP nominee like TTB ( and HoG & BtR on the actress side) so the lead performance winning a remaining precursor majorly affects that potential BP group...... This isn't a year where the fringe films are certain "ins" without a precursor except TTB and BtR maybe- they just aren't strong enough. to be locks..... Oh there is always an excuse when this happens but the conversation, like here, becomes so disproportionately about him regardless of how tenuously related to the topic he is. This doesn’t happen, at least not consistently, with any other actor and almost always by the same three people. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 29, 2022 17:50:36 GMT
There's a great discussion to be had on this issue because I totally agree or at least agree that he'd be a much more "logical" winner this year - although he's not my personal win (I have him 4th or 5th atm, Cumby/Rex/Phoenix/Washington & Smith........ haven't seen Dinklage) His character disappears in the end of Fences........he already had a Tony for Fences ..........VERY few actors win a BA Tony & Oscar for the same part - like you have to go way back to find it happening (Scofield etc) ........and to win a 3rd Oscar for Fences was a non-starter anyway since Affleck (deservedly imo) swept everything. But TToM he goes across the whole film, acts opposite an "equal", for a great director, pulls off something he never has - AND no one has that SAG on lock in 2021 ........I don't see how anybody can reasonably argue his winning SAG was "a good thing" for Denzel Washington - it was a bad thing ........because it's one of the reasons he won't win the Oscar this year either .......if Affleck is going to sweep them all anyway what difference did SAG '16 matter except for people to wrongly get their hopes up? He had no chance in 2016, maybe you could be fooled with his SAG and had a little daylight - but no BAFTA nod killed him that year........other years it didn't matter but that year .........it was everything to him Yeah, I'm glad Affleck won that year. In general, I find myself strongly at odds with the awards the Academy has given to great actors for the wrong performances, their constant catching up makes everything seem wrong even when they want to do the right thing, and Kidman this year will be just another case of it.
Anyway, if there's one film I'd truly love to see kicked out of this list of presumed locks is Don't Look Up.
Yeah, I don't want to see DLU in the Best Picture line-up. Don't get me wrong, I liked it. But many parts of the film were poorly executed and a bit tiring. |
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