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Post by countjohn on Jan 28, 2022 6:24:14 GMT
McKay getting in over PTA would have been truly vomit inducing so good thing the DGA has some semblance of taste.
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 28, 2022 9:13:18 GMT
I think this is our Oscar five. Coen or Hamaguchi (PLEASE) could sub out Branagh, but I doubt it. I really don't get where all of this Hamaguchi support is coming from. I know Drive My Car is a big critical favorite and I know that the Academy's been predisposed to nominating an international director lately, but citing established names as Vinterberg, Bong and even Pawlikowski and expecting that Hamaguchi will automatically follow suit just because his film is the perceived international feature frontrunner does feel a bit specious to me. Plus there are just so many major names fighting for dominance as well that I find it hard to think that any of the DGA five are that vulnerable now. Anderson, who was arguably the most snubbable due to his somewhat spotty history with the guild, got in. Branagh could wind up getting McDonagh/Farrelly/Sorkin'd, but there is a more visual flair to Belfast than any of those guys brought to their films. Campion's the frontrunner, Villeneuve the closest challenger (there's a lot I want to talk about in regards to Dune, the Oscars, and what the expectations are for the sequel as far as awards go), and Spielberg is Spielberg -- actually, I would say at this stage, it's actually Spielberg who is most vulnerable of the five due to his film missing lay-up guilds like ACE and ASC, whereas the other films hit pretty much everywhere they needed to or were expected. But I just see everyone on Film Twitter and pundits talking about "who will Hamaguchi replace at the Oscars," and I just don't see it happening. But hey, I ate a fair bit of crow today on Ridley, so what do I know? I agree that people on Twitter are way too confident he’s getting nominated. One thing in its favour is that it’s had a very strong critics run, even amongst more ‘basic’ critics associations. I think he’s a contender, but again I don’t think he’s happening. |
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 28, 2022 10:03:30 GMT
It’s just that this branch is extremely receptive to international arthouse films, and Drive My Car is the most acclaimed of the year in that regard. I also think he’ll safely cruise to a BAFTA nod, which might not mean much formally as the category will be fully picked by a jury, but it would still be significant.
I don’t see Guillermo as a viable option anymore. I could potentially see Maggie Gyllenhall, but it’s a very far fetched possibility. Otherwise it’s either Hamaguchi or Coen. I don’t really believe Sorrentino can get in unless The Hand of God wildly overperforms at BAFTA.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 28, 2022 12:59:54 GMT
Hamaguchi at least has genuine passion from people - maybe it's small or manufactured to some degree but it isn't fake.........I'm not sure I even see Coen as 6th or 7th......I see him further back........like far further back actually atm I mean - he's an Academy favorite - so maybe ........I've been wrong before - but I said this months ago I don't see any passion for TToM - lots of respect, but not much passion that I see ( Ellen Barkin aside) and never have. If I told you that movie - with that pedigee in front and behind the camera - would be at 93% RT and high 80s metacritic and Washington would be almost shut out of critics prizes entirely ('cept Toronto), McDormand IS shut out and Coen would be shut out at this stage too.......I am thinking everybody would have told me I'm nuts. A24 had 2 years to build an arc for this movie and not only have they dropped the ball they've dropped it all over the place - they haven't built any discernible arc for Washington - which is pretty easy to do and they've still mucked it up - he's what 4th of likely nominees atm (?) - and TToM will likely miss for Fran and Hunter - and Hunter is a built "attention getting" performance like Cooper to get in ........ Maybe A24 is bribing the right people and it over performs on Oscar morning - but evidence is needed pretty urgently tbh - they have been awful not just their big gun with this movie but with sidelining others - Phoenix - a genuinely top 3 of the year level performance in 2021 - along with Cumby and Rex and The Humans - which they couldn't get anyone to care about and is 93% on RT ......  TToM missing PGA, DGA, WGA to me was a waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay worse day imo than HoG missing those same guilds.......HoG at least can walk around the room with its 150 million+ bucks - and pray for a Supporting actor and BP Oscar nod (starting to doubt it) above the line to go with (maybe) Gaga. If TToM delivers just 3 Oscar nods for THIS good a movie (an ~ 8 / 10 - maybe Denzel's best movie ever - he doesn't exactly have a lot of "8's" you know what I mean?) in THIS wishy washy year.........people should lose their jobs there really....
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Post by franklin on Jan 28, 2022 16:19:57 GMT
As i said, get ready for McKay to surprise and get over PTA or Branagh at the Oscars
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Archie
Based
Eraserhead son or Inland Empire daughter?
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Post by Archie on Jan 28, 2022 16:25:36 GMT
As i said, get ready for McKay to surprise and get over PTA or Branagh at the Oscars You'd really like that, wouldn't you? |
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 28, 2022 18:29:57 GMT
I really think McKay would’ve shown up at DGA if he was getting that Director nomination.
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Post by stephen on Jan 28, 2022 18:40:41 GMT
I really think McKay would’ve shown up at DGA if he was getting that Director nomination. Yeah, DGA loves 'em some McKay, so the fact that he didn't make it here doesn't bode well. It is conceivable he could get in at the final hurdle, but man, I feel like the Don't Look Up discourse was as hot as it ever was during guild voting, and the fact it missed individual acting nods and DGA just makes me feel that maybe, just maybe, we dodged a bullet. |
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havok2
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Post by havok2 on Feb 3, 2022 21:25:50 GMT
Spielberg getting shafted is so predictable especially now with Hamaguchi making it to BAFTA. this is so fucking easy guys
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