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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 24, 2022 2:32:25 GMT
Affleck now has GG and SAG nominations for this performance which has to mean something. Not to muscle into Brother Fease's territory, but I did some research and it's quite uncommon for supporting actors to get nominated for both of those without getting an Oscar nomination (less uncommon for supporting ladies interestingly). Only happened a couple times since SAG started handing out prizes in '94.
2020 - Leto, The Little Things 2018 - Chalamet, Beautiful Boy 2015 - Shannon, 99 Homes AND Elba, Beasts of No Nation 2013 - Brühl, Rush 2002 - Quaid, Far from Heaven
*also happened in 2001 with Christensen (Life as a House) but HFPA nominated six perfs that year so no way of knowing if he was in their top 5.
and a couple more times in the 90s.
Is Affleck going to join these rare perfs that nabbed both GG and SAG nobs while ultimately being snubbed? What works against him is that this year's SA race is really messy with 8 legitimate contenders for five spots so there's a chance he doesn't make it through that. But then again, of the five contenders (Leto/Affleck/Cooper/Dornan/Faist) angling for those remaining two spots assuming Smit-McPhee/Kotsur/Hinds are safe, Affleck is the only one to have both GG and SAG nominations. So what do we think?
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Post by ibbi on Jan 24, 2022 2:58:24 GMT
Probably not, but he should! He's better than all the contenders I've seen, give or take Hinds.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 24, 2022 14:30:00 GMT
I don’t think there will be enough passion for him to get in being the sole nom from his movie. I like both his performances this year though and think he’s got enough good will back on his side that I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a nom in the near future though.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 25, 2022 3:11:31 GMT
If we go by my crazy formula here, we have the following contenders:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee - Won the Globe. Nominated at Critics Choice and SAG. 2. Troy Kotsur - Nominated at Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG.
3. Ben Affleck - Nominated at Globes and SAG. 3. Jared Leto - Nominated at Critics Choice and SAG. 3. Ciaran Hinds & Jamie Dornan - Nominated at Globes and Critics Choice. 7. JK Simmons - Nominated at Critics Choice. 7. Bradley Cooper - Nominated at SAG.
Affleck's stock is very high right now. This is probably his best chance of getting nominated for an acting Oscar. The category being very fluid works in his advantage. Besides KSM and Kotsur, it's the wild wild west. The problem for me is the lack of strong buzz for his film. Whenever I think of Affleck and The Tender Bar, I immediately think of Jared Leto and The Little Things.
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Post by futuretrunks on Jan 25, 2022 3:19:41 GMT
I doubt it. Feels like a film nobody has seen.
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