|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Jan 15, 2022 23:50:07 GMT
We sort of danced around these things in the SAG thread but just thought this would be a good place for our prognosticating specialists to size up these two.
I was thinking about this because HoG didn't release their weekend box office yet and I think when they do - if the global totals are included tomorrow this is going to be bearing down on 140 million + (maybe depending how it opened in South Korea / Japan?). I may be underestimating it - some markets haven't updated for weeks.
Now I think the race is more open than others do - I think Chastain could win SAG and Colman well, you know- so what do I know - but let's assume it's these 2.
1. Can Gaga win Oscar if she does not win SAG or BAFTA - or does she "need 1" - say she loses SAG but is nodded for a BAFTA - does she "need" Kidman to miss BAFTA then or doesn't it matter if Gaga doesn't win it? A Kidman SAG win and anybody else winning BAFTA (not Gaga) would finish Gaga off or no?
2. HoG is maybe more likely for a PGA nod than BtR and if it gets a PGA - which it might and I don't think BtR really can - HoG would be in for BP at the Oscars - what would Kidman need then - just Best Screenplay, or Bardem or a Picture nod - which is possible or could she win with only one of those 3 things? Does BP for Gaga's movie and not for Kidman's cost Kidman the win?
Does Gaga "need" to drag Leto in to win if both movies miss BP - since screenplay is not happening and she would lose any "BP advantage"? Does a BtR screenplay nod cancel out HoG BP nod for the Oscar and its an even playing foeld or does Picture trump everything?
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 15, 2022 23:57:45 GMT
Right now, I think I see more winner upside from Gaga.
Kidman's Globe win definitely shows some strength, but it also could easily be just them rewarding someone they clearly have a bias towards. SAG will be where Kidman stakes her claim as the frontrunner of the race. But House of Gucci's strength has been underestimated this entire season, and Gaga has been omnipresent. And her film is arguably the most financially successful of all of the contenders, and even though she's not playing as recognizable a figure as Lucille Ball, she's also doing a great deal of ACTING that appeals very much to industry voters, and she's coming off of a true star-making performance just a couple of years ago.
If I were a betting man, I'd say Gaga takes the SAG and neither takes BAFTA.
|
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Jan 16, 2022 0:22:06 GMT
I think HOG is getting really to pull a BR. Meaning, it will start hitting guild after guild. Remember when BR did that and people were like...huh. Well, everyone prepare yourself for that to happen with HOG.
I give Gaga the edge right now. HOG will more than likely receive the BP nod so that means more people will see the movie. However, it boils down to if the actors will be snobs about this whole thing. If they still see Gaga as some pop star, then they may not vote for her.
So both Gaga and Kidman are playing real people. The edge goes to Kidman only because we are dealing with a beloved icon.
Gaga will be in a bp nod. Doubtful Kidman will be so Gaga gets the edge there.
So the tiebreaker will be peer-based.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 16, 2022 0:25:39 GMT
I think Gaga needs to win SAG at least.
|
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Jan 16, 2022 0:28:00 GMT
I think Gaga needs to win SAG at least. Right, it will need to be peer-based. That is what it will boil down to. Do the actors want to give it to her. Is there a bias? If not, then she has the edge because she is the movie. |
|
|
|
Post by countjohn on Jan 16, 2022 1:15:25 GMT
Well Gaga definitely needs some kind of precursor win you would think. Although it still feels like we're in a transitional period in terms of precursors with the decreased clout of the Globes and whatever the hell the BAFTAS think they're doing. SAG might be starting to be the most important one these days, at least it's the only one where there's no "well but....." angle.
House of Gucci picking up a BP nod (which is not going to happen for Ricardos) would be a pretty major advantage for Gaga. Don't think Leto/Bardem matter that much.
Wouldn't count out Coleman either.
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 16, 2022 1:32:09 GMT
Well Gaga definitely needs some kind of precursor win you would think. Although it still feels like we're in a transitional period in terms of precursors with the decreased clout of the Globes and whatever the hell the BAFTAS think they're doing. SAG might be starting to be the most important one these days, at least it's the only one where there's no "well but....." angle. House of Gucci picking up a BP nod (which is not going to happen for Ricardos) would be a pretty major advantage for Gaga. Don't think Leto/Bardem matter that much. Wouldn't count out Coleman either. . Her performance isn't as loud and showy or "transformative" as the others', but she is at the peak of her popularity, and there have been a few comparisons drawn to Glenda Jackson that I think are reasonable indeed. I think The Lost Daughter could very well overperform in the end with nominations depending on how BAFTA swings. And if she wins BAFTA in a split race (i.e. if someone that isn't Kidman wins SAG), then I'd probably favor her. Momentum is key at the final hurdle. |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Jan 16, 2022 2:01:23 GMT
Who wins the BAFTA?
Previous winners:
2020 - McDormand
2019 - Zellwegger
2018 - Colman
2017 - McDormand
2016 - Stone
2015 - Larson
2014 - Moore
2013 - Blanchett
2012 - Riva
2011 - Streep
2010 - Portman
|
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Jan 16, 2022 2:03:59 GMT
I think Gaga needs to win SAG at least. It will probably be Colman at BAFTA, but I’m hoping there’s a shocker with Kidman winning SAG where I think she’s more likely but Gaga winning BAFTA. If Gaga lost both, I don’t think she could recover even if her film is the only one nominated for Best Picture. I think over time precursors will get to a point where someone in leading wins without either one, but I don’t think this year will be it. Kidman may just win both SAG and BAFTA, in which case I would assume she would just win the Oscar. However, if loses BAFTA to either Colman or someone else, I’m going to assume that the BAFTA winner will win. |
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 824
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Jan 16, 2022 2:15:36 GMT
I think Gaga needs to win SAG at least. It will probably be Colman at BAFTA, but I’m hoping there’s a shocker with Kidman winning SAG where I think she’s more likely but Gaga winning BAFTA. If Gaga lost both, I don’t think she could recover even if her film is the only one nominated for Best Picture. I think over time precursors will get to a point where someone in leading wins without either one, but I don’t think this year will be it. Kidman may just win both SAG and BAFTA, in which case I would assume she would just win the Oscar. However, if loses BAFTA to either Colman or someone else, I’m going to assume that the BAFTA winner will win. Why Colman at BAFTA - because of the British factor? That didn't help her last year. She lost to Youn Yuh-jung. And the Father was a stronger contender than The Lost Daughter.
Ricardos and Gucci had strong showings with the BAFTA short list. And Kidman has won BAFTA before.
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 16, 2022 2:26:37 GMT
It will probably be Colman at BAFTA, but I’m hoping there’s a shocker with Kidman winning SAG where I think she’s more likely but Gaga winning BAFTA. If Gaga lost both, I don’t think she could recover even if her film is the only one nominated for Best Picture. I think over time precursors will get to a point where someone in leading wins without either one, but I don’t think this year will be it. Kidman may just win both SAG and BAFTA, in which case I would assume she would just win the Oscar. However, if loses BAFTA to either Colman or someone else, I’m going to assume that the BAFTA winner will win. Why Colman at BAFTA - because of the British factor? That didn't help her last year. She lost to Youn Yuh-jung. And the Father was a stronger contender than The Lost Daughter.
Ricardos and Gucci had strong showings with the BAFTA short list. And Kidman has won BAFTA before.
Colman wasn't nominated last year with BAFTA, so she technically didn't "lose" to Youn there. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2022 2:32:59 GMT
Let’s wait and see who actually gets nominated at BAFTA.
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 824
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Jan 16, 2022 3:07:15 GMT
Why Colman at BAFTA - because of the British factor? That didn't help her last year. She lost to Youn Yuh-jung. And the Father was a stronger contender than The Lost Daughter.
Ricardos and Gucci had strong showings with the BAFTA short list. And Kidman has won BAFTA before.
Colman wasn't nominated last year with BAFTA, so she technically didn't "lose" to Youn there. The point is that the British factor didn't help Colman last year.
My question: Why are people here automatically predicting that Colman will win BAFTA for The Lost Daughter? Yet she was snubbed last year for a higher profile film?
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 16, 2022 3:16:43 GMT
Colman wasn't nominated last year with BAFTA, so she technically didn't "lose" to Youn there. The point is that the British factor didn't help Colman last year.
My question: Why are people here automatically predicting that Colman will win BAFTA for The Lost Daughter? Yet she was snubbed last year for a higher profile film?
Because of the way BAFTA's nomination system is set up, the hurdle is actually to get nominated. Only two of the actual Oscar nominees got in last year in Supporting Actress (and Actress, too). The passion was with Youn and Bakalova more than it was with Colman, and the nominating jury decided to throw their weight and support to films and performances that they felt deserved more attention and also fulfilled their new criteria. If Colman gets nominated with BAFTA, she's a deadly threat because she's won four times there. They love her. She just has to make it past the jury phase. |
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 824
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Jan 16, 2022 3:39:13 GMT
The point is that the British factor didn't help Colman last year.
My question: Why are people here automatically predicting that Colman will win BAFTA for The Lost Daughter? Yet she was snubbed last year for a higher profile film?
Because of the way BAFTA's nomination system is set up, the hurdle is actually to get nominated. Only two of the actual Oscar nominees got in last year in Supporting Actress (and Actress, too). The passion was with Youn and Bakalova more than it was with Colman, and the nominating jury decided to throw their weight and support to films and performances that they felt deserved more attention and also fulfilled their new criteria. If Colman gets nominated with BAFTA, she's a deadly threat because she's won four times there. They love her. She just has to make it past the jury phase. But we are not at that point yet - so how can someone like MORTON automatically assumed she will win BAFTA. She may very well get snubbed again.
|
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Jan 16, 2022 4:29:22 GMT
Because of the way BAFTA's nomination system is set up, the hurdle is actually to get nominated. Only two of the actual Oscar nominees got in last year in Supporting Actress (and Actress, too). The passion was with Youn and Bakalova more than it was with Colman, and the nominating jury decided to throw their weight and support to films and performances that they felt deserved more attention and also fulfilled their new criteria. If Colman gets nominated with BAFTA, she's a deadly threat because she's won four times there. They love her. She just has to make it past the jury phase. But we are not at that point yet - so how can someone like MORTON automatically assumed she will win BAFTA. She may very well get snubbed again.
MORTON - please respond don't just hide behind Stephen.
Of course I don’t know that Colman will even be top 2, but TLD did very well on the longlists, and she’s a favorite there. Plus I don’t see Kidman sweeping yet, and even though House of Gucci and The Eyes of Tammy Faye both did well on long lists as did Being the Ricardos, I think Kidman, Gaga and Chastain being in biopics with mixed reviews could possibly split the vote. I usually don’t think there is such a thing, but if things are really close and there’s not someone that’s undeniable, which may not be obvious until the Oscars are over like with McDormand last year when many were predicting Davis, Mulligan, and even Day, things could be so close that just being a beloved 4 time winner and being the person in the best reviewed film that might be the only one nominated for Best British Film could be enough of an edge. At least I think it will be. Of course she could miss, but I think she’s in the top 2 and either Kidman or Gaga will be the other person, and then after that I think she’ll just go onto win because she’ll have home field advantage and Kidman and Gaga’s films weren’t as well received by critics as The Lost Daughter has been. |
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 824
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Jan 16, 2022 5:29:13 GMT
But we are not at that point yet - so how can someone like MORTON automatically assumed she will win BAFTA. She may very well get snubbed again.
MORTON - please respond don't just hide behind Stephen.
Of course I don’t know that Colman will even be top 2, but TLD did very well on the longlists, and she’s a favorite there. Plus I don’t see Kidman sweeping yet, and even though House of Gucci and The Eyes of Tammy Faye both did well on long lists as did Being the Ricardos, I think Kidman, Gaga and Chastain being in biopics with mixed reviews could possibly split the vote. I usually don’t think there is such a thing, but if things are really close and there’s not someone that’s undeniable, which may not be obvious until the Oscars are over like with McDormand last year when many were predicting Davis, Mulligan, and even Day, things could be so close that just being a beloved 4 time winner and being the person in the best reviewed film that might be the only one nominated for Best British Film could be enough of an edge. At least I think it will be. Of course she could miss, but I think she’s in the top 2 and either Kidman or Gaga will be the other person, and then after that I think she’ll just go onto win because she’ll have home field advantage and Kidman and Gaga’s films weren’t as well received by critics as The Lost Daughter has been. Why don't we wait until the BAFTA nods come out and we know who the players are - especially after Colman was snubbed last year for a more high profile film. Her having the home field advantage didn't help her.
At this point, there's only been 1 industry precursor with the Globe. Let's see what happens with SAG, BFCA.
|
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Jan 16, 2022 14:40:25 GMT
One of the little wrinkles here if you believe the race is between these 2 - and I like I said I don't yet - is that Kidman did the commercial for going back to the theaters and Gaga actually is the one who got people back to the theaters.  For me it is a good test of Kidman's real industry strength - we always talk about her "respect in the industry" (none of you work in the industry so, maybe we should cool that stuff, thanx) - but her appeal always went across other bodies while being (I guess?) undernodded at the big show. A Kidman wins seems to me is far more about her than seeing Gaga as a "mere singer" - I think that it's hard to see her as a singer when she didn't sing, acted opposite THAT cast (and she acted with all of them) and no other singer could have delivered that box office in an R rated movie. To me if Kidman wins and it really comes down to her and Gaga .........it's more of a "you deserve 2" win and we don't care what they did....now I don't think she deserves 2 but that's a different story from the race.......I mean like I said, I think Chastain maybe could steal SAG so what do I know  |
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 16, 2022 15:29:34 GMT
My wife has seen neither performance so I just asked her based on her opinion of the 2 actresses who’d she rather see win. She winced and asked me for a 3rd option.
|
|
|
|
Post by michael128 on Jan 20, 2022 22:28:32 GMT
Well Gaga definitely needs some kind of precursor win you would think. Although it still feels like we're in a transitional period in terms of precursors with the decreased clout of the Globes and whatever the hell the BAFTAS think they're doing. SAG might be starting to be the most important one these days, at least it's the only one where there's no "well but....." angle. House of Gucci picking up a BP nod (which is not going to happen for Ricardos) would be a pretty major advantage for Gaga. Don't think Leto/Bardem matter that much. Wouldn't count out Coleman either. isn't the "well but....." the addition of AFTRA? hasn't that greatly reduced the crossover with Oscar voters? |
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Jan 21, 2022 9:56:50 GMT
Well Gaga definitely needs some kind of precursor win you would think. Although it still feels like we're in a transitional period in terms of precursors with the decreased clout of the Globes and whatever the hell the BAFTAS think they're doing. SAG might be starting to be the most important one these days, at least it's the only one where there's no "well but....." angle. House of Gucci picking up a BP nod (which is not going to happen for Ricardos) would be a pretty major advantage for Gaga. Don't think Leto/Bardem matter that much. Wouldn't count out Coleman either. isn't the "well but....." the addition of AFTRA? hasn't that greatly reduced the crossover with Oscar voters? If anything, AFTRA should be in support of Gaga. |
|
