Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2022 18:49:18 GMT
There are still about 4 weeks to go, but for now, who do you feel are secure for the Oscar nominations?
ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Will Smith, King Richard
ACTRESS
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Would you add or subtract anyone?
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 3, 2022 22:16:17 GMT
Just like last years thread, I’m much looser with the term ‘lock’ than you.
I have all the people you have plus; Garfield, Washington, Colman, Gaga, Kotsur and Dornan.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2022 22:19:03 GMT
Just like last years thread, I’m much looser with the term ‘lock’ than you. I have all the people you have plus; Garfield, Washington, Colman, Gaga, Kotsur and Dornan. Why Gaga? I feel that she’s in fifth place at the moment. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 3, 2022 22:24:37 GMT
Just like last years thread, I’m much looser with the term ‘lock’ than you. I have all the people you have plus; Garfield, Washington, Colman, Gaga, Kotsur and Dornan. Why Gaga? I feel that she’s in fifth place at the moment. Box office success, NY win, previous winner. It definitely isn’t a strong argument or anything but it’s a) just a gut feeling and b) her nearest competition have even more weaknesses than her. The problem with predicting both Kidman and Chastain is that they have a very similar trajectory and are competing for the same vote. At least Gaga feels different to those two. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 3, 2022 23:00:27 GMT
Just like last years thread, I’m much looser with the term ‘lock’ than you. I have all the people you have plus; Garfield, Washington, Colman, Gaga, Kotsur and Dornan. Why Gaga? I feel that she’s in fifth place at the moment. Gaga's film is performing very well financially, and in this era of COVID wreaking havoc on the film industry, a non-MCU adult film doing well at the box office would be something for the industry to celebrate. It's also why I think people are vastly underrating it as an overall contender; I think it's definitely still in play for Picture, Supporting Actor, potentially Adapted Screenplay, and a few techs. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2022 23:50:06 GMT
Why Gaga? I feel that she’s in fifth place at the moment. Gaga's film is performing very well financially, and in this era of COVID wreaking havoc on the film industry, a non-MCU adult film doing well at the box office would be something for the industry to celebrate. It's also why I think people are vastly underrating it as an overall contender; I think it's definitely still in play for Picture, Supporting Actor, potentially Adapted Screenplay, and a few techs. But would you call her a lock? |
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Post by stephen on Jan 3, 2022 23:56:49 GMT
Gaga's film is performing very well financially, and in this era of COVID wreaking havoc on the film industry, a non-MCU adult film doing well at the box office would be something for the industry to celebrate. It's also why I think people are vastly underrating it as an overall contender; I think it's definitely still in play for Picture, Supporting Actor, potentially Adapted Screenplay, and a few techs. But would you call her a lock? I'm not really one to use the term "lock" these days because we've seen surefire picks miss out for one reason or another at the final hurdle, but I am currently predicting Gaga to be in the top five, and I would say she's hovering around third right now in terms of who I would qualify as "safe." |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 4, 2022 0:44:51 GMT
Very, very hard to do this before SAG.
Smith
Cumby
Denzel
Stewart
Kidman
Hinds
Kodi Smit-McPhee
Balfe
Dunst
That doesn't mean I think someone outside this list will miss, just that at this stage those people have the combination of role and/or movie and/or fame that makes them lose a nomination virtually impossible.
Meanwhile, someone like De Bose, Ellis, Kotsur, or even Judi Dench, depending on how the season goes might not even make it if their movie under-performs and/or they under-perform in the awards, but may also not only be nominated, but even win depending on how the season goes. Not unlike someone like Youn last year at this stage was by no means a certain nominee, but entered the Oscar night as favorite and won.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 4, 2022 1:22:01 GMT
Just like last years thread, I’m much looser with the term ‘lock’ than you. I have all the people you have plus; Garfield, Washington, Colman, Gaga, Kotsur and Dornan. Why Gaga? I feel that she’s in fifth place at the moment. But why is she in 5th place? She's hit every major precursor that matters. Won the NYFCC. And she played against type. She did not do a Star Is Born, Part 2. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 4, 2022 1:30:37 GMT
Why Gaga? I feel that she’s in fifth place at the moment. But why is she in 5th place? She's hit every major precursor that matters. Won the NYFCC. And she played against type. She did not do a Star Is Born, Part 2. Agreed. I can’t imagine Colman is ahead of her, and maybe not Chastain. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 4, 2022 1:59:46 GMT
Very, very hard to do this before SAG. Smith Cumby Denzel Stewart Kidman Hinds Kodi Smit-McPhee Balfe Dunst That doesn't mean I think someone outside this list will miss, just that at this stage those people have the combination of role and/or movie and/or fame that makes them lose a nomination virtually impossible. Meanwhile, someone like De Bose, Ellis, Kotsur, or even Judi Dench, depending on how the season goes might not even make it if their movie under-performs and/or they under-perform in the awards, but may also not only be nominated, but even win depending on how the season goes. Not unlike someone like Youn last year at this stage was by no means a certain nominee, but entered the Oscar night as favorite and won. You think Kidman is Top 2?? What’s the feeling behind that? |
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 4, 2022 6:47:11 GMT
Actor:
Cumberbatch
Smith
Garfield
Actress:
Stewart
Colman
Supporting Actor:
Hinds
Smit-McPhee
Supporting Actress:
Balfe
DeBose
Dunst
Ellis
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 4, 2022 15:36:45 GMT
Very, very hard to do this before SAG. Smith Cumby Denzel Stewart Kidman Hinds Kodi Smit-McPhee Balfe Dunst That doesn't mean I think someone outside this list will miss, just that at this stage those people have the combination of role and/or movie and/or fame that makes them lose a nomination virtually impossible. Meanwhile, someone like De Bose, Ellis, Kotsur, or even Judi Dench, depending on how the season goes might not even make it if their movie under-performs and/or they under-perform in the awards, but may also not only be nominated, but even win depending on how the season goes. Not unlike someone like Youn last year at this stage was by no means a certain nominee, but entered the Oscar night as favorite and won. You think Kidman is Top 2?? What’s the feeling behind that? Kidman has a combination that makes her too big to miss, I think: playing a very famous and beloved real-life person in a movie about the entertainment industry, written and directed by arguably the most prestigious writer in Hollywood, that comes right after his movie got a BP nom, it's probably the biggest name in the race in her category, and got good reviews after being written off a joke when cast. Plus, her movie is really Amazon's biggest chance of getting somewhere. |
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 4, 2022 19:43:05 GMT
I’m very strict when it comes to calling contenders “locks”. I think Benedict Cumberbatch and Will Smith are the only ones I’d feel 100% comfortable with calling locks.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 4, 2022 21:00:11 GMT
Actor:
Will Smith
Benedict Cumberbatch
Actress:
Kristen Stewart
Supporting Actor:
None
Supporting Actress:
None
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