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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 2, 2022 14:58:00 GMT
King Richard is 7th on my best picture power rankings. Will Smith is being projected as the next Best Actor winner. Since 2010, all of the best actor winners were attached to a best picture nominee. Overall, we saw the following actors winning Best Actor without a Best Picture nomination: Jeff Bridges (2009), Forest Whittaker (2006), Denzel Washington (2001), Nicolas Cage (1995), Tom Hanks (1993), and Jeremy Irons (1990). That's six in the last 30 years.
Here are the current awards attention for the film:
BEST PICTURE - AFI Top Ten honors. Globe and Critics Choice nominee. BEST ACTOR - NBR winner. Globe and Critics Choice nominee. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Aunjanue Ellis) - NBR winner. Globe and Critics Choice nominee. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Critics Choice nominee. BEST SONG - Globe and Critics Choice nominee.
That's five categories. The Satellite awards did nominate Reinaldo Marcus Green for best director and Pamela Martin for best film editing. I will include those two in the poll.
Do you think Smith is going to win Best Actor? How about winning Best Picture? Conventional thinking says it's Belfast vs. The Power of the Dog.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 2, 2022 15:28:25 GMT
I have it for Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and Somg.
I think it’s completely done for Best Picture now. There was a brief time where it seemed like a crowdpleaser that could surprise over Belfast and The Power of the Dog, but then the numbers for it’s first few weeks came out. People just don’t really care even with a Smith in it, and it being about two famous superstar athletes.
As for other wins I guess I’ll stick with Smith in Actor; although I’m not entirely sure why now. I know he became the early frontrunner, but King Richard was nowhere near the success of The Blind Side, and it’s not like he’s super due even if he’s been nominated twice before. I don’t think him being a box office draw is enough of a narrative especially when Cumberbatch is right there picking up more critics awards in a much stronger movie. I know that the expectation was that Cumberbatch would do well with the critics and that it would switch over to Smith during the televised awards which admittedly could still happen, but I feel like Smith has underperformed at many places where they are more friendly to “basic” choices. Plus I’m not sure why BAFTA would go with him when Cumberbatch is right there when at least to me Boseman seemed like a bigger lock and still lost BAFTA and then the Oscar. Still maybe this was just one of those races that was done super early, and Smith will just sweep like expected.
Of course if that doesn’t happen, and Smith wins until BAFTA, I actually think Ellis could win. I do have DeBose as my pick in Supporting Actress, but if she misses SAG due to screener issues, I could see Ellis winning and then going onto win everything else because I think it’s going to be a very close category no matter who wins, and I’ve seen Ellis singled out more and she’s been nominated and won more.
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Post by countjohn on Jan 2, 2022 15:40:49 GMT
I'll say BP, actor, sup. actress, screenplay, editing, and song.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 2, 2022 15:51:01 GMT
Do you think Smith is going to win Best Actor? How about winning Best Picture? Conventional thinking says it's Belfast vs. The Power of the Dog.
I picked the same 5 nods but Editing is possible too. I dont think it can win BP now - it doesn't have that heat to it - but I certainly have it above everything except Belfast, PoTD, WSS I guess? I do think Smith will win GG, SAG and CC and if so I think he wins Oscar - I think it's pretty obvious I'mCumbyDammit will win BAFTA ......but if Cumby steals any or 2 of those 3 ^ or someone ELSE wins BAFTA - a narrative forms for it's a "wide open field now"....... I've said this a lot before - but the reason Smith is the favorite (still) - despite giving cringe interviews that don't help him (at all) - is his movie allows him to do everything an actor can do in a single role.......no other of the "big" BA contenders can say that really - maybe Cumby - but not to that same extent - (I haven't seen Dinklage yet)......that matters a whole lot - I made a joke once that Smith is doing everything in his movie except the on-set catering 
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 2, 2022 16:08:32 GMT
I'll say BP, actor, sup. actress, screenplay, editing, and song. Same |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 2, 2022 16:24:45 GMT
Will Smith is this year's Matthew McConaughey. The big movie star who play against type in a smaller pic. MM was not the critics favorite. Chiwetel Ejiofor was for Best Picture 12 Years A Slave. MM won BFCA, GG, SAG and wasn't even nominated for BAFTA, which went to Ejiofor.
In the last few years, the critics favorite for Best Actor usually have not gone on to win the Oscar.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 2, 2022 16:47:21 GMT
Will Smith is this year's Matthew McConaughey. The big movie star who play against type in a smaller pic. MM was not the critics favorite. Chiwetel Ejiofor was for Best Picture 12 Years A Slave. MM won BFCA, GG, SAG and wasn't even nominated for BAFTA, which went to Ejiofor.
In the last few years, the critics favorite for Best Actor usually have not gone on to win the Oscar.
I agree with your commentary here. TPOTD is winning the most picture, director, adapted screenplay, actor, and supporting actor trophies, but that doesn't actually translate into being the favorite to win. Brokeback Mountain, The Social Network, Boyhood, and Roma dominated in the critics circle awards, but lost for Best Picture. Another good example would be Michael Keaton for Birdman. The critics loved the performance the most, the Academy and Brits went for Eddie Redmayne. |
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Post by JangoB on Jan 2, 2022 20:37:12 GMT
I'm thinking four:
- Picture
- Actor
- Supporting Actress
- Original Screenplay
Hopedicting that they'll snub that horrendous song.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 2, 2022 20:59:52 GMT
Picture
Actor
Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay
Song (unfortunately)
It's a safe bet for all of these. Bernthal I don't see happening, editing and director are possible but longshots. As for wins, I'm still not sure if Smith is the frontrunner but if he doesn't win I think the film goes home empty-handed.
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 2, 2022 21:44:42 GMT
I like the song!
Picture
Actor *
Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay
Song
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 3, 2022 0:05:04 GMT
I like the song!
Picture Actor * Supporting Actress Original Screenplay Song Me too.
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