Don't Look up (Nominations + Wins)

1. Currently there is only one stand-out in the Supprting Actor race and that is : Kodee-Smith McPhee. [He was my win too before watching DLU]

2. No one else (excluding Rylance for now) comes close. There is just no other stand-out in anyway, no narrative, no overdues, no great transformations, no nothings. Plenty are good enough for nominations, say JK Simmons or Jesse Plemons, but none are win material. 

3. Now let's focus on McPhee: Young actor. Practically a new-comer as far as the Academy is concerned. Performance and role requirement: too understated. Both these are generally big no-nos for the Academy when we are talking actors (compared to actresses). Academy would be probably like "McPhee who??? He can be better down the road." Lol they gave DiCaprio this treatment for so long and he was never even a who???

4.  Now what's another trend the Academy has recently shown for Actors esp. in the Supporting Actor category? They fall in love with certain character actors and they don't mind rewarding them again even all too soon. They did that with Waltz a decade ago, and very recently with Mahershala.

5. Now let's focus on Rylance the actor (not the performance, for now): Everyone is in love with this actor. Great prestigious actor; hugely respected and admired by nearly everone. Already won once in this category. He's hitting all the checkmarks for the trend I note in point 4.

6. Now Rylance the performance: It's a transformation for Rylance in the following ways: He's a British, period piece actor. He's kinda like Cumberbatch in this regard; you expect certain kinda performance from both of them with an added, distinct British stamp.

But, in DLU he's playing a persona so far from his usual character work, it's like a 180 degrees from it. Even Cumberbatch cannot lay claim to such a transformation, whose character maybe Western but it's still pretty much in his wheelhouse. Rylance is doing something totally unexpected of him. He's clearly based it on the current megalo-techno-lords and he has nailed it. He's found the sweet 'just that crazy' line between the self-centeredness and humanity-savior mojo of these real-life characters. And he is not relying on any tics, gimmicks, or hyper gestures or whatever sometimes actors fall back on (my own favorite Bale is often guilty of such). But not Rylance. He is appropriately understated and channeling the craziness behind the eyes thing in an entirely different way that you usually see. It's so suprising, and even partly perceived as some of you are calling it, bonkers, may be because it's so far removed from what one would expect from a presitigious, British, period piece actor... That's how I'm seeing the critique. 

7. Anwyas, the performance didn't hit any false notes with me personally and based on all of the above points, I'm predicting him for the win. I could be totally wrong of course. Maybe some other suprise contender will spring up yet and catch their fancy. Maybe they will warm to McPhee's brilliant understatedness way more to Rylance's 180 degree from his usual character work. Who knows for sure. But he blew me away and I think there's a good enouch chance he will blow the Academy away too. 

This is the sort of in-depth analysis of the race I like to see. I do agree with a lot of it, that Rylance holds enough respect and he is the showiest supporting role in the film (and is easily the one getting the most analysis, good and bad) that if anyone does net any sort of momentum here, it would likely be him. And the film is peaking at the perfect time, and the category is ripe for that surge to break him into the conversation in a big way.

I don't know if I can yet feature him winning (he has to get nominated first), but I think you are correct that none of the presumptive nominees fit the general bill of a winner. Smit-McPhee skews much younger and more reserved a performance than they usually go for here (not that he's undeserving; I think he'd be a phenomenal choice but an unorthodox one for Best Supporting Actor). Hinds has the veteran angle but the role itself kinda felt like it lacked the real oomph that we usually see in winners. Dornan actually had the more fleshed-out arc of the duo but I feel like he's not securing individual momentum. Kotsur is someone I can absolutely see winning, but just as easily see him getting snubbed, too. It depends on how CODA overall does. And then there's Jared Leto, who I actually think is kind of in the same boat Rylance is in (previous Oscar-winner in a role that is extremely broad and has drawn a lot of attention positively and negatively, likely has a strong co-star who can break into a leading category, in a film that will likely play better with the industry than the critics).

Regardless of what people here might think of his performance, good or bad, the fact remains is that the discourse around Don't Look Up is starting to look very favorable in the industry. It could hit anywhere from 3-10 nominations at this stage, and honestly, with the way the wind is blowing, timing might be on its side.

Just realized that this is the third consecutive film with which McKay has hijacked awards season...