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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 14, 2021 0:33:54 GMT
Let me know what you think. I'll explain in detail for all.
1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog 3. Licorice Pizza
4. West Side Story 5. Dune 6. Don't Look Up 7. King Richard
8. CODA 9. tick, tick...Boom! 10. Nightmare Alley 11. Cyrano
My #1 and #2 are inches apart from each other. Both films scored picture, director, screenplay, and multiple acting nominations from both the Globes and Critics Choice. Fun fact: No film has won best picture without a Globe screenplay nomination since Million Dollar Baby back in 2004. I am only giving Belfast the slight edge due to Toronto Film Festival Best Picture win.
Licorice Pizza falls to #3 because it won the NBR best picture award AND scored best picture/screenplay nominations from the Globes and Critics Choice.
West Side Story and Dune are next on my list. Both scored picture and director honors at the Globes and Critics Choice awards, and scored an adapted screenplay nomination from the Critics Choice awards. Currently I am leaning WSS because it scored acting nominations.
Don't Look Up did receive a best picture nominations from the Globes and Critics Choice, and the important Globe screenplay nomination. However, the reviews for the film are relatively mixed, around 55% on Rotten Tomatoes.
King Richard, CODA, and tick tick Boom! are off to a great start. But no Golden Globe screenplay nomination or directing nominations from either the Globes or Critics Choice are going to be problematic.
For that 10th spot, it's a close call between Nightmare Alley and Cyrano. I am leaning Nightmare because of the del Toro directing nomination.
Potential future risers could be Being the Ricardos (screenplay, actor, actress, supporting actor recognition), The Tragedy of Macbeth (Washington's Best Actor buzz, AFI honors), The Lost Daughter (directing, screenplay, actress recognition), and Drive My Car (directing, acting).
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Post by michael128 on Dec 14, 2021 2:23:25 GMT
did you factor in the best original song potential for KR's chances?
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 14, 2021 7:30:55 GMT
Pretty solid. I think WSS is Top 2/3 and I have Macbeth instead of Nightmare Alley, but other than that, pretty much what I have.
Actually, also don't even have Cyrano in my Top 15.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 14, 2021 12:11:21 GMT
Pretty solid. I think WSS is Top 2/3 and I have Macbeth instead of Nightmare Alley, but other than that, pretty much what I have. Actually, also don't even have Cyrano in my Top 15. Without a Globe screenplay nomination or a major win (NBR, NY, LA, NSFC, Toronto), I cannot logically put it higher than 4. As for the TTOM, yeah, I can see it becoming the next American Sniper or Judas and the Black Messiah, the late bloomer contender. We will see what happens. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 14, 2021 12:23:38 GMT
Pretty solid. I think WSS is Top 2/3 and I have Macbeth instead of Nightmare Alley, but other than that, pretty much what I have. Actually, also don't even have Cyrano in my Top 15. Without a Globe screenplay nomination or a major win (NBR, NY, LA, NSFC, Toronto), I cannot logically put it higher than 4. As for the TTOM, yeah, I can see it becoming the next American Sniper or Judas and the Black Messiah, the late bloomer contender. We will see what happens. I mean LA and NSFC haven't happened yet, and missing Screenplay at the Globe's doesn't really matter much when they combine the categories and are always going to gravitate toward people like Sorkin and McKay. It's still definitely getting the Screenplay nod at the Oscars, and even if by some very strange turn of events it missed, you can still be a Top 3 contender without getting a Screenplay nod. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 14, 2021 22:11:41 GMT
Without a Globe screenplay nomination or a major win (NBR, NY, LA, NSFC, Toronto), I cannot logically put it higher than 4. As for the TTOM, yeah, I can see it becoming the next American Sniper or Judas and the Black Messiah, the late bloomer contender. We will see what happens. I mean LA and NSFC haven't happened yet, and missing Screenplay at the Globe's doesn't really matter much when they combine the categories and are always going to gravitate toward people like Sorkin and McKay. It's still definitely getting the Screenplay nod at the Oscars, and even if by some very strange turn of events it missed, you can still be a Top 3 contender without getting a Screenplay nod. We will see. This is just my initial best picture power rankings. Any film has the ability to move up and down the chart. Keep in mind, I have no qualms with dramatic shifts in my power rankings. I need to see more from WSS before I put it above LP, TPOTD, and Belfast. Lack of a screenplay nomination at the Globe is a bad sign -- hasn't happened in about 17 years. Once the Guilds get doled out, my best picture algorithm kicks in. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 14, 2021 22:14:47 GMT
These are not gut predictions by the way.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 15, 2021 0:26:55 GMT
These are not gut predictions by the way. Correct. All very scientific.I have watched the Oscars since 1997 (high school for me), and researched every single Oscar season. So I pretty much know the common beats here. WWS being #4 seems very fair to me.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 16, 2021 1:04:11 GMT
your statistical rundowns every season are always so interesting
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 19, 2021 23:59:45 GMT
Do you feel the Golden Globes precursor will hold the same weight this year considering the controversy over the last year and the fact it won’t be a televised ceremony? It feels like a year where you can throw all the stats out the window around their noms.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 20, 2021 2:02:10 GMT
Do you feel the Golden Globes precursor will hold the same weight this year considering the controversy over the last year and the fact it won’t be a televised ceremony? It feels like a year where you can throw all the stats out the window around their noms. The short answer is no. The principle here is "like-mindedness" and Academy/Guild members knowing who and what's been nominated. The Globes are still going to influence on what films the Academy should "like" and what DVDs they should watch. |
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