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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 28, 2021 1:24:09 GMT
All seem like they could pull it off
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Post by stephen on Nov 28, 2021 1:26:31 GMT
Belfast feels like it's guaranteed at least one, and House of Gucci feels almost equally likely. I don't think either winds up getting double-nodded at the final five, though.
Licorice Pizza, I'm beginning to think it misses this category entirely despite the Cooper praise, and Alana Haim becomes its big acting push, but she winds up missing at the final hurdle due to her relative anonymity. (If she does get in, though, I think you might see the winds shift in favor of a PTA win because a Haim nomination would show passion for the overall movie.)
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 28, 2021 1:36:25 GMT
Belfast is probably the most likely, but while I still have it winning Best Picture, it just feels like a very weak frontrunner. Obviously we still have a long ways to go before things return to normal, but I feel like Belfast hasn’t made a blip with regular movie goers. Perhaps it will be like last year again, but I feel like the crowd pleasing narrative might not work if crowds aren’t there for it.
Anyhow I just ended up throwing House of Gucci a vote. I could see it not getting any above the line nominations, but at least the first weekend seems good, and it’s something that from anecdotal evidence, people actually know about. I still SAG will love it. That doesn’t necessarily translate to the Oscars of course, but with Pacino having a comeback with The Irishman and being a legend and Leto coming close last year and being a former winner, I think that they can both get in especially with King Richard looking weak as well which sadly means Bernthal is probably out.
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Post by pupdurcs on Nov 28, 2021 1:39:14 GMT
House Of Gucci is 2 points off a Rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes. Can't see that happening at all. Ridley Scott is not seen as an "actors director" that can score double acting nods for the same category in a film with such mediocre/barely passing reviews. And Leto is far more praised than the other Supporting actors and sucking all of the oxygen from them in that conversation. Pacino feels more like hopedicting because he's loved on this board. Still, he might show up at the Globes or something as they love starfucking and legends, and he fits the bill. But do the Globes even matter this year?
Belfast is very likely.
Liquorice Pizza....whom would get a another supporting nod? I thought Cooper Hoffman was lead , and no one is talking about him there. No one is talking about Sean Penn or Safadie either in Supporting. The only hope in Supporting Actor by a country mile is Bradley Cooper. So this is a huge no.
The Power Of The Dog feels more likely than any of these except Belfast to score double Supporting Actor nods, with Smit-McPhee a seeming lock and Jessie Plemons having a decent shot
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Post by finniussnrub on Nov 28, 2021 1:49:21 GMT
Only really see Belfast doing it, and it has a legit chance given how scattered the category appears at the time being.
Gucci I think will be either Leto or Pacino (or neither) not both, and that will be quickly decided by SAG nominating one or the other.
Licorice Pizza sounds like Cooper or bust in the category, though given Hoffman and Haim both have more difficult roads, it may help him if he can become the sole acting rep for a film, if that film is destined to be a major contender.
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Nov 28, 2021 1:52:40 GMT
Belfast by far. Hinds is likely in, and Dornan has a strong shot since he's campaigning like a mad man in a weak category. Pacino in HoG is a pipe dream, and so is anyone other than Cooper in LP.
My hot take is that House of Gucci will be completely blanked on Oscar morning, and that Leto is getting snubbed after getting SAG/GG.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 28, 2021 2:03:35 GMT
Belfast by far. Hinds is likely in, and Dornan has a strong shot since he's campaigning like a mad man in a weak category. Pacino in HoG is a pipe dream, and so is anyone other than Cooper in LP. My hot take is that House of Gucci will be completely blanked on Oscar morning, and that Leto is getting snubbed after getting SAG/GG. I don’t think there is any way House of Gucci misses costumes. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 28, 2021 2:25:10 GMT
Even though I think it’s the least likely I really think Licorice Pizza is a dark horse to over perform with noms and could totally see both Cooper and Penn getting noms and everyone just being “wtf nobody saw that coming” on nomination morning. People are still way too safe with predictions (which is understandable) and act like out of left field stuff doesn’t happen every year.
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Post by stephen on Nov 28, 2021 2:28:24 GMT
Even though I think it’s the least likely I really think Licorice Pizza is a dark horse to over perform with noms and could totally see both Cooper and Penn getting noms and everyone just being “wtf nobody saw that coming” on nomination morning. People are still way too safe with predictions (which is understandable) and act like out of left field stuff doesn’t happen every year. The field is wide-open, agreed, but even people hard in the tank for Licorice Pizza have agreed that all of the supporting performances in it are briefer than what usually get recognized. It's not out of the question, but it is unlikely. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Nov 28, 2021 2:34:47 GMT
There are way too many supporting actor options out there to give Sean Penn a nomination for a short performance nobody is talking about, alongside Bradley Cooper. Even if they love the film.Left field stuff happens, but not that leftfield. Penn is #61 on the GoldDerby Experts odds and predictions list. There are literally 55 + actors they could find right now to nominate over him.
When I think of somewhat more credible leftfield possibilities, it's something like Ben Affleck getting a surprise supporting nod for The Last Duel, because there was some passion in some circles for his performance. Or I dunno, maybe Brody or Chalamet from The French Dispatch.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 28, 2021 3:21:40 GMT
Yeah, Belfast with the only real shot. Honestly, I think there's an argument that Don't Look Up is more likely than Gucci and the PTA.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 28, 2021 3:22:42 GMT
Even though I think it’s the least likely I really think Licorice Pizza is a dark horse to over perform with noms and could totally see both Cooper and Penn getting noms and everyone just being “wtf nobody saw that coming” on nomination morning. People are still way too safe with predictions (which is understandable) and act like out of left field stuff doesn’t happen every year. Doesn't mean you have to go and predict King Richard for BP just to spice things up  |
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Post by futuretrunks on Nov 28, 2021 3:29:49 GMT
Belfast, by far. Licorice Pizza has no chance, and Gucci is Leto or bust in supporting actor. Pacino has some nice moments, but it's not substantial enough. Leto makes you laugh almost every time he's on screen.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 28, 2021 11:33:41 GMT
Belfast by far. Hinds is likely in, and Dornan has a strong shot since he's campaigning like a mad man in a weak category. Pacino in HoG is a pipe dream, and so is anyone other than Cooper in LP. My hot take is that House of Gucci will be completely blanked on Oscar morning, and that Leto is getting snubbed after getting SAG/GG. I don’t think there is any way House of Gucci misses costumes. I actually think that's very possible. This year this category is just so damn stacked. For instance a lineup like this - Spencer, Dune, Cruella, West Side Story, Nightmare Alley - doesn't seem that unlikely to me at all. Although it'd be a shame if Janty Yates missed in such a strong year for her (even if I haven't seen either film yet  ). As far as the OP question goes - I think it's definitely Belfast. If AMPAS is generous to it, it can realistically get both double Supporting Actor and Actress nominations. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 28, 2021 14:31:18 GMT
Yeah, Belfast with the only real shot. Honestly, I think there's an argument that Don't Look Up is more likely than Gucci and the PTA. I forgot about Don’t Look Up in that regard. Suppose it should be on this poll too. Oh well, doubt it would put a dent in the Belfast total. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 28, 2021 14:31:34 GMT
Even though I think it’s the least likely I really think Licorice Pizza is a dark horse to over perform with noms and could totally see both Cooper and Penn getting noms and everyone just being “wtf nobody saw that coming” on nomination morning. People are still way too safe with predictions (which is understandable) and act like out of left field stuff doesn’t happen every year. Doesn't mean you have to go and predict King Richard for BP just to spice things up iswis |
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