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Post by JangoB on Dec 18, 2021 0:18:52 GMT
Updated:
1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. West Side Story
4. Licorice Pizza
5. Dune
6. Don't Look Up
7. CODA
8. King Richard
9. Nightmare Alley
10. Being the Ricardos
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2021 19:23:53 GMT
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Honestly have no idea about the other two...
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 27, 2021 19:37:18 GMT
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Feel pretty confident in the top 9. I think Nightmare Alley could miss because it totally flopped, but it’s a late release and Fox Searchlight.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2021 19:45:01 GMT
Feel pretty confident in the top 9. I think Nightmare Alley could miss because it totally flopped, but it’s a late release and Fox Searchlight. For me, I feel confident in a Top 8.  The final two slots could go any which way - C'mon C'mon, Nightmare Alley, Spencer, tick tick BOOM, The Tragedy of Macbeth, or perhaps one (or more) of the strong foreign language contenders. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 27, 2021 19:46:45 GMT
Unfortunately I’m thinking Macbeth is going to get the Inside Llewyn Davis +actor treatment so right now I’m going with…
Belfast
West Side Story
The Power of the Dog
King Richard
Dune
Licorice Pizza
Coda
Don’t Look Up
Tick Tick Boom
Nightmare Alley
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 27, 2021 22:24:09 GMT
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Spider-Man: No Way Home (NGNG)
tick, tick...Boom!
West Side Story
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 27, 2021 22:37:17 GMT
as of 12/27
1. The Power of the Dog
2. West Side Story
3. Belfast
4. Dune
5. Licorice Pizza
6. King Richard
7. CODA
8. Nightmare Alley
9. Tick Tick Boom
10. Don't Look Up
Have no idea who's in front so 1-3 placements are arbitrary at this point. I buy all of them as potential winners. Power of the Dog as the critical juggernaut, Belfast as the TIFF-winning crowdpleaser, West Side Story as a combination of those plus a healthy dose of political relevancy. It'll be interesting to see if the horrible box office numbers hurt WSS but my gut says no because the people who ARE seeing it are loving it.
I'm betting against Macbeth at this point, might just be too niche for the Academy outside of Denzel and a couple techs. Nightmare Alley's reviews ended up being better than expected and it's showy enough and people seem to like it enough for it to get in. For the 10th spot I'm thinking either Macbeth, Ricardos, or Don't Look Up but I'm sticking with Don't Look Up. Likely screenplay nominee and AMPAS eats up whatever shit McKay serves them, and I think the controversy might help it more than hurt it.
out:
Spencer
Gucci -- goes w/o saying
Last Duel
French Dispatch
C'mon C'mon
Cyrano
Passing
I'd be very surprised if any of these^ make it in
*possible spoilers*
The Lost Daughter -- GG-nominated director, likely nominations for screenplay and actress.
Drive My Car - dark horse contender for actor/director/screenplay
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 27, 2021 23:25:14 GMT
Just changed my vote from Nightmare to The Tragedy of Macbeth for that 10th spot.
1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Licorice Pizza
4. West Side Story
5. Dune
6. King Richard
7. CODA
8. tick, tick...Boom!
9. Don't Look Up
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth
My top 9 were all nominated at both the Globes and Critics Choice awards. Belfast gets my #1 spot because it won at Toronto. TPOTD #2 for already being the critics choice champ of the year. LP for winning NBR. WSS and Dune because they were nominated for Best Director at the Globes and Critics Choice awards. 6-9 can easily be interchangeable for me. Favoring King Richard first because of Will Smith's front-runner status.
TTOM fills in my 10th spot, if there is one. The way I look at it: TTOM is a late-bloomer. It's not yet widely seen. The more people see it, the more it'll rise into the conversations. AFI already honored it in their top 10. The reviews have been amazing.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 27, 2021 23:46:32 GMT
Updated:
1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. West Side Story
4. Licorice Pizza
5. Dune
6. Don't Look Up
7. CODA
8. King Richard
9. tick, tick... BOOM!
10. Nightmare Alley
Finally got on the tick-tick-train. Still keeping Nightmare Alley in...perhaps foolishly. But I'm not sure what to replace it with. It's crazy that del Toro's BP-followup with such a huge cast which could've been a nomination leader might end up with a couple of tech nods instead (or maybe even one - I can see it getting in only for Production Design in the worst-case scenario).
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 28, 2021 1:07:03 GMT
Question: Are they doing 10 nominees or up to 10 nominees?
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Post by JangoB on Dec 28, 2021 1:08:33 GMT
Question: Are they doing 10 nominees or up to 10 nominees? Full 10 this year. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 8, 2022 1:47:07 GMT
it's starting to feel wrong leaving out Lost Daughter. Globe nominee for director and a very likely nominee for adapted screenplay and best actress. Can't justify having it under NA anymore, a film that's on the outside for all the above-the-line categories and missed several tech shortlists where it should've shown more strength. If it was an undeniable tech juggernaut like Dune then it might be different but it's not looking that way.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 8, 2022 2:45:22 GMT
it's starting to feel wrong leaving out Lost Daughter. Globe nominee for director and a very likely nominee for adapted screenplay and best actress. Can't justify having it under NA anymore, a film that's on the outside for all the above-the-line categories and missed several tech shortlists where it should've shown more strength. If it was an undeniable tech juggernaut like Dune then it might be different but it's not looking that way. It's definitely ahead of NA, but I still don't see it getting in. The audience scores are dreadful, and Netflix isn't getting 4 films nommed here. |
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Post by JangoB on Jan 12, 2022 23:48:36 GMT
Updated:
1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. West Side Story
4. Licorice Pizza
5. Dune
6. Don't Look Up
7. CODA
8. King Richard
9. House of Gucci
10. tick, tick... BOOM!
Alt: Being the Ricardos
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