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Post by JangoB on Oct 24, 2021 13:03:11 GMT
That is the question.
Do you think Dune will be nominated for Best Picture? Or will it follow the BR2049 route and snatch nothing more than the techs? Discuss.
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Post by stephen on Oct 24, 2021 13:05:23 GMT
I think it's getting the Fury Road treatment: Picture, Director, all the techs. The question is whether it can wangle Adapted Screenplay as well.
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Post by JangoB on Oct 24, 2021 13:18:34 GMT
I think it's getting the Fury Road treatment: Picture, Director, all the techs. The question is whether it can wangle Adapted Screenplay as well. I really don't know how to vote in me own poll. On the one hand, I can absolutely see it nominated for BP and BD alongside the obvious tech nominations, but on the other hand, it's also very easy for me to see a situation where it doesn't reach the top categories. I don't think the movie's got quite the level of enthusiasm to it that Fury Road of the LOTR movies had. But at the same time it's still a pretty big deal. Villeneuve's getting a lot of praise for his undertaking so I guess that'll help it. Plus the fact that there're gonna be 10 BP slots secured this year. I'll vote yes for BP at this point in time but I gotta be honest: when I came out of the theatre, it didn't strike me as a BP nominee at all. Then again, I had the same feeling about The Martian and look how that turned out. |
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Post by stephen on Oct 24, 2021 13:32:40 GMT
I think it's getting the Fury Road treatment: Picture, Director, all the techs. The question is whether it can wangle Adapted Screenplay as well. I really don't know how to vote in me own poll. On the one hand, I can absolutely see it nominated for BP and BD alongside the obvious tech nominations, but on the other hand, it's also very easy for me to see a situation where it doesn't reach the top categories. I don't think the movie's got quite the level of enthusiasm to it that Fury Road of the LOTR movies had. But at the same time it's still a pretty big deal. Villeneuve's getting a lot of praise for his undertaking so I guess that'll help it. Plus the fact that there're gonna be 10 BP slots secured this year. I'll vote yes for BP at this point in time but I gotta be honest: when I came out of the theatre, it didn't strike me as a BP nominee at all. Then again, I had the same feeling about The Martian and look how that turned out. It's the hard ten-nominee rule that makes me favor it more than anything. But with that said, the film is doing solid box-office right now, and if it maintains that track, it could very much be seen as a film that helped bring the theatrical experience back from the COVID doldrums, and I can see that narrative really favoring Villeneuve, who really is the biggest talking point of the film in a way reminiscent of Miller in 2015. And considering how DGA capitulated in the end to allow Dune to be eligible for its awards, I think that's really one to watch as far as industry prizes go (in Best Director; I'm not at all confident that it can win Picture but I think Director is still very much on the table). |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 24, 2021 14:42:18 GMT
Really not sure. It's a crowded year and a month ago I wouldn't even entertain the idea. Famously unreliable gut instinct still says no but everyone seems to be predicting it so...  |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 24, 2021 14:57:57 GMT
I honestly think it’s going to get the Interstellar/Bade Runner treatment. Maybe with 10 nominees it sneaks in BP but right now I don’t think so.
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Post by DanQuixote on Oct 24, 2021 15:52:11 GMT
Picture (because of the ten slots) and basically all the techs.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Oct 24, 2021 16:34:45 GMT
In, but closer to #10 than to #1
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 24, 2021 16:56:51 GMT
I really don't know how to vote in me own poll. On the one hand, I can absolutely see it nominated for BP and BD alongside the obvious tech nominations, but on the other hand, it's also very easy for me to see a situation where it doesn't reach the top categories. I don't think the movie's got quite the level of enthusiasm to it that Fury Road of the LOTR movies had. But at the same time it's still a pretty big deal. Villeneuve's getting a lot of praise for his undertaking so I guess that'll help it. Plus the fact that there're gonna be 10 BP slots secured this year. I'll vote yes for BP at this point in time but I gotta be honest: when I came out of the theatre, it didn't strike me as a BP nominee at all. Then again, I had the same feeling about The Martian and look how that turned out. It's the hard ten-nominee rule that makes me favor it more than anything. But with that said, the film is doing solid box-office right now, and if it maintains that track, it could very much be seen as a film that helped bring the theatrical experience back from the COVID doldrums, and I can see that narrative really favoring Villeneuve, who really is the biggest talking point of the film in a way reminiscent of Miller in 2015. And considering how DGA capitulated in the end to allow Dune to be eligible for its awards, I think that's really one to watch as far as industry prizes go (in Best Director; I'm not at all confident that it can win Picture but I think Director is still very much on the table). Yes, I agree with many on here that I think it will get in BP because there are 10 slots, but I feel it’s closer to #10 than #1. Before early screenings, I thought it had the chance to win BP and BD, but even though it’s doing well both critically and commercially, critically I think it needed more to be in serious contention for BP. It seemed for the casual viewer, many thought of it as incomplete. Maybe the sequel can win, but I don’t think Dune will. There’s still the genre bias, and unfortunately I don’t think the right conditions happened for it to be a serious threat. Anyhow I do think it could still win BD because I’m not sure I see Kenneth Branagh winning even if he’s nominated and Belfast wins BP, and they can always give Campion Adapted Screenplay. Unfortunately TLD bombed, so now Scott’s even slimmer chance all depends on House of Gucci, so it’s definitely possible he’s not even nominated. I guess it could be one of the late releases, but I don’t think it will be a former winner, and I don’t think McKay will go that far even if he’s nominated again. |
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Post by countjohn on Oct 24, 2021 18:36:09 GMT
It's going to cleanup with techs but I really don't see BP/BD happening. I think the Academy is just going to see it as a well made sci-fi adventure movie. Even before MeToo the feminism angle was a huge part of the narrative for Fury Road, The Martian had the "OMG SCIENCE" angle and Scott's a living legend which doesn't hurt a movie trying to slip into the back end of a BP lineup. There just isn't anything like that here. BR 2049 and Interstellar were much more superficially "heady" films than this is and still didn't get any big nods. It's just tough for sci-fi with the Academy. As I said before I think most voters will see this as a well made adventure film without any kind of "genre transcending angle" and not the kind of thing that needs a BP nod.
And since someone brought it up this isn't even on the same planet as LOTR in terms of being a cultural phenomenon so there's just no comparison to make there. That's like saying your garden variety YA puppy love movie is going to win BP because Titanic did.
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Post by JangoB on Oct 24, 2021 18:59:13 GMT
It's going to cleanup with techs but I really don't see BP/BD happening. I think the Academy is just going to see it as a well made sci-fi adventure movie. Even before MeToo the feminism angle was a huge part of the narrative for Fury Road, The Martian had the "OMG SCIENCE" angle and Scott's a living legend which doesn't hurt a movie trying to slip into the back end of a BP lineup. There just isn't anything like that here. BR 2049 and Interstellar were much more superficially "heady" films than this is and still didn't get any big nods. It's just tough for sci-fi with the Academy. As I said before I think most voters will see this as a well made adventure film without any kind of "genre transcending angle" and not the kind of thing that needs a BP nod. And since someone brought it up this isn't even on the same planet as LOTR in terms of being a cultural phenomenon so there's just no comparison to make there. That's like saying your garden variety YA puppy love movie is going to win BP because Titanic did. That's where I was when I exited the theatre but there's so much hoopla around it that I've become convinced that sneaking in a field of locked 10 nominees is quite possible. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Oct 24, 2021 20:39:28 GMT
With 10 guaranteed spots I think it gets in.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 24, 2021 22:18:53 GMT
For the people who don't think it will make it, what 10 films do you think are above it??
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Post by futuretrunks on Oct 24, 2021 22:51:14 GMT
In. I think the director's branch will be impressed too.
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Post by doddgerhardt on Oct 25, 2021 4:23:28 GMT
I think in a year of 10, it’s in. It’s done well enough that I don’t think it will be considered a disappointment. At the same time it hasn’t done so well that the Academy will think themselves above it. Villeneuve is well respected enough. It’s generally well liked it. It will get plenty of technically nominations and even win a few. I think it’s also possible Villeneuve could even win. Though it won’t win BP.
Could I still see it getting snubbed in BP? Yea it won’t be to everyone’s tastes.
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Oct 25, 2021 13:17:32 GMT
Nope... but given the mediocrity of films now nominated I wouldn't be surprised.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Oct 27, 2021 15:13:48 GMT
I’ll add that I can see Dune not winning much| as voters may wait to reward part 2 instead. In fact I wouldn’t even be that surprised if Denis missed Director completely this go round. I also can see it losing cinematography to Macbeth.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 28, 2022 17:00:10 GMT
Congrats to Dune on a freaking stellar guild run - it hit everything, didn't it? (yeah, yeah, I know it only got SAG Stunts but a SAG nod is still a SAG nod!)
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Post by Miles Morales on Jan 28, 2022 17:36:16 GMT
I already had strong belief that it would score a BP nomination back in October, and after its fantastic guilds run, there's literally no way that Dune misses a Picture nomination now - it's the Fury Road of the year.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 28, 2022 18:29:53 GMT
I’m glad I was wrong. I’m naturally a pessimist when it comes to the Academy.
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Post by michael128 on Jan 28, 2022 19:38:14 GMT
I think the next one will win BP. Final prediction.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 28, 2022 22:20:36 GMT
Dune is currently #3 on my best picture power rankings. So far, its hit most of the right chords here. AFI, Globe, and Critics Choice Best Picture nominations. The Guilds nominated it for PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE (unlike WSS), and scored technical guilds across-the-board. Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing looks like its best chance for major wins. I wouldn't discount Best Director either. Its only negatives is no SAG Ensemble nomination AND nobody in the cast is getting any acting attention.
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