September Poll: What Will Win Best Picture?

Just randomly voted so I could see the results, and what a surprise, the troll votes are already here.

If 'FUN' was their mindset (which like was discussed in another thread, the Academy as a whole doesn't really going into voting with any kind of consensus mindset), I think they'd be much more likely to go with Don't Look Up. Or go with something a bit smaller and not as fun, but still a big crowdpleaser like Belfast or King Richard.

Also, I'd call 96% on RT and 90 on MC pretty damn rapturous. 

I’m dropping The Power of the Dog too as it feels like the typical Netflix festival film that wins one big award (Roma, Marriage Story), or comes close to it, but doesn’t go farther than that despite being praised as one of the best films of the year and having a ton of nominations.

Right now I’m debating between Belfast and Licorice Pizza as the former is about how entertainment like movies helps people through tough times, and the latter seems like the type of film about the industry or at least connected to it that the Oscars end up loving (The Artist, Birdman), or at least liking enough to give it a ton of nominations (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood).

Belfast feels like it would have won a decade ago or so, but now I don’t know. Of course, Green Book winning wasn’t so long ago, and I could see things swinging back the other way to more “traditional” fare after something like Nomadland won. Plus, I could see it reaching the magic number of three wins (Batra or Dench, Original Screenplay, Picture).

With Licorice Pizza, I think it could win Original Screenplay and maybe I guess Cooper in Supporting Actor, but I feel like I usually overestimate it being PTA’s year to finally win. I think LP will definitely have its fans, but at the moment I guess I’ll go with Belfast because I know more about it so far, and it feels like a feel good/fun film that I’ve been predicting to win since this year started because of how awful the last year and half or so has been.

I've no fcking clue. I'll stick with the McKay prediction for now but I'd be ecstatic if PTA made something so crowd-pleasing to actually snatch this thing.

Yeah I get where you're coming from. I'm actually not predicting it for the win right now, just think it is still in the hunt, and definitely has a better shot than Gucci.

Hmmm........We can 100% scratch off imo Macbeth, The Last Duel, In The Heights, Dune, French Dispatch - not saying anything about how good they are (haven't seen 'em or any of these) but those 5 ain't "winning" BP.......come on.......

The Power of the Dog is the BIG problem here in assessing the race - this is a rapturously praised movie - anybody who dissed it is on the wrong side of the argument, AND history ........AND they're on the wrong-side of the Academy too - it's getting nodded for a whole lot of things - BUT this movie apparently is NOT the book which I think could hurt it.

The reviews suggest Campion made a movie that is against "anti-gay" thinking......that's noble, and it is in the book, and that's nice, it's not the full extent of the great book though......I think it's out because it's too narrow in its focus from what I read - it's "too narrow" I'm guessing.

House of Gucci I don't think is diverse enough, noble enough, safe enough from people who are gonna call it an exercise in an accent-wtfery trainwreck that I personally don't think will be righteous enough to fight institutional r-r-r-r-r-racism, or the Patriarchy, or Fat-phobia, or be pro-Trans-athletes enough or whatever the fnck is on the minds of you wacky kids these days for things that a mere "movie" should solve.

It seriously could be the movie of the year - for the rest of the world though - especially when everybody forgets about Scott's The Last Duel which should be around 4:30 today or something - I know I've already forgotten about it - remember when people said HoG would "interfere" with The Last Duel's Oscar chances?

HoG is (by far) the bigger deal ........but a BP winner......? There are more likely picks than that one .....not impossible, but not the safe pick......

Nightmare Alley - Sort of the safer pick than HoG (big studio pic, star studded for grow-ups) but I just think it's too dark to win BP .......this year......

Don't Look Up - ........entirely possible....

trendy......timely.....except Jennifer Lawrence being in it and this board for some reason thinks the worlds highest paid movie actress just being in it and not getting an Oscar nomination (or some other such BS) means "anything" - it doesn't - she's fine, her career is fine, this is getting a ton of nods even if J-Law is literally yawning on screen and Adam McKay directed it in a deeply meta-way for us to enjoy! .........only downsides I see are it's length and Netflix curse if that still exists.

I'm really thinking Belfast tbh - check out the virtue signalling on its RT page - and how noble critics think they are by praising it, it has the comfort of simple nostalgia - ("Nostalgia is a symptom of a dying culture" - Grant Hart of Husker Du)

Damn right.

Side note : If you want "Nostalgia" so bad - listen to Husker Du's New Day Rising - rather than watching fncking Belfast - just sayin'

Also, it's winning the TIFF audience award right? ..........and I don't even know that it's actually AT TIFF ..........and it may win that anyway

Otherwise........I'm going DLU from the list ........for the mere presence of Jennifer Lawrence

Agreed. Maybe you should just remove the obvious troll picks like In the Heights to avoid something like Black is King last year. 

Belfast.

Well, here's hoping my Belfast/TIFF prediction happens. Haha.

Why the split prediction? It's not like Kenneth is in Tom McCarthy's position. He is a well-respected actor/director. Even scored a directing nod before. Granted, if PTA gets some traction then that's whom I would want to win but the jury is still out on his pic.

Might as well keep sticking with Don’t Look Up.

The lack of Belfast, King Richard, and Licorice Pizza in this poll is weird.