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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2021 14:17:41 GMT
What do your current predictions look like?
Cruella, Jenny Beavan
Dune, Bob Morgan and Jacqueline West
House of Gucci, Janty Yates
Nightmare Alley, Luis Sequeira
Spencer, Jacqueline Durran
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Post by stephen on Aug 27, 2021 14:30:24 GMT
Those are currently my predicted five as well, but I am expecting The Last Duel could do some damage here.
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 27, 2021 14:30:59 GMT
Honestly, never really think about the tech categories this far out.
Those look good though.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2021 14:34:58 GMT
Those are currently my predicted five as well, but I am expecting The Last Duel could do some damage here. Yes, I was wondering about the possibility of double nominations for Janty Yates, à la Sandy Powell in 2015. Totally different films/designs, just like her banner year.  |
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Post by JangoB on Aug 27, 2021 14:39:48 GMT
Love to think about the tech categories this far out!
Plenty of proper contenders this year so this is tough...
- Cruella
- Spencer
- Nightmare Alley
- House of Gucci
- West Side Story
These are the ones I'm feeling as of now but at the same time I can absolutely imagine The French Dispatch here, as well as another Janty Yates with The Last Duel.
Totally seeing a Dune nomination too but I'll wait a little bit before committing to predicting it because I do feel that it may be a bit too unshowy/colorless for AMPAS... If the movie becomes a Fury Road-like success then it can absoluely snatch that nod though.
There's also Cyrano which is bound to be quite pretty in that regard and then who knows what tapestry of costumes will Mark Bridges bring to PTA's 70s.
I'm not entirely confident in my West Side Story prediction but from the looks of it the movie is gonna be very colorful and there're plenty of people to dress there so even if it fails to become a BP nominee I can see it getting quite a few technical nominations including this one. But if I were to replace it, I'd probably say The French Dispatch is next in line.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2021 14:43:47 GMT
JangoB - I'm thinking Mitchell Travers for The Eyes of Tammy Faye may be a contender, as well. 
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Post by JangoB on Aug 27, 2021 14:46:16 GMT
JangoB - I'm thinking Mitchell Travers for The Eyes of Tammy Faye may be a contender, as well. Hmm, I think definitely for a Costume Designers Guild nomination (I guess they'll put it in contemporary?) but the field seems a bit too stacked for him to sneak in the AMPAS five. That movie is such a mystery to me as far as its award chances go. Like, will the international members even care about it and its story? |
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Post by stephen on Aug 27, 2021 14:47:27 GMT
Those are currently my predicted five as well, but I am expecting The Last Duel could do some damage here. Yes, I was wondering about the possibility of double nominations for Janty Yates, à la Sandy Powell in 2015. Totally different films/designs, just like her banner year. I think it's very possible. I do expect The Last Duel to do well with the techs (and likely will be in the #2 spot behind Dune for a lot of my predictions this far out), but the question is, what would it muscle out here? Gucci is about the fashion industry so you'd have to expect that would overcome the contemporary bias. Ditto Cruella. Dune has the sci-fi element to it that usually does well here and Nightmare Alley is an old-school noir piece that I can see doing very well. I imagine Spencer is most vulnerable of the five but I also can't really see it missing, either. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2021 14:59:00 GMT
stephen - I feel like Cruella here is the closest thing we have to a lock across all categories this early on.
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Post by stephen on Aug 27, 2021 15:01:02 GMT
stephen - I feel like Cruella here is the closest thing we have to a lock across all categories this early on. There are no locks in August, and the year is packed (I can easily list five other contenders off the top of my head that I can see as solid players). But I do agree that it's in, and it's going the Cinderella in 2015 route. |
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Post by JangoB on Aug 27, 2021 15:08:19 GMT
Yes, I was wondering about the possibility of double nominations for Janty Yates, à la Sandy Powell in 2015. Totally different films/designs, just like her banner year. I think it's very possible. I do expect The Last Duel to do well with the techs (and likely will be in the #2 spot behind Dune for a lot of my predictions this far out), but the question is, what would it muscle out here? Gucci is about the fashion industry so you'd have to expect that would overcome the contemporary bias. Ditto Cruella. Dune has the sci-fi element to it that usually does well here and Nightmare Alley is an old-school noir piece that I can see doing very well. I imagine Spencer is most vulnerable of the five but I also can't really see it missing, either. Does it though? I feel that sci-fi is actually a genre that the AMPAS costume branch tends to overlook. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 27, 2021 16:13:03 GMT
 these can be hard to predict because lately there've been some really odd picks but Cruella and House of Gucci definitely feel like frontrunners. I think Spencer is a good pick for Durran's name recognition certainly. Last Duel could get in but medieval costumes seem to be hit or miss. I see these as the seemingly strongest contenders:CruellaDuneThe French Dispatch (never underestimate Milena Canonero) House of GucciThe Last DuelNightmare AlleySpencerWest Side Storynext in line, maybe: Coming 2 America - I can dream  The Electrical Life of Louis Wain - might be like The Aeronauts where no one watches it and it just gets entirely overlooked but Michael O'Connor does have clout Eternals - probably just for CDG awards but you never know Respect - never know with showbiz biopics in this category--couldda sworn the Billie Holliday was getting in last year The Tragedy of Macbeth - maybe? Zophres does tend to sneak in does that about cover it? Maybe Passing? Power of the Dog as a coattails nod if they love it? Eyes of Tammy Faye? Oscar-standby Mark Bridges for the new PTA? |
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Post by speeders on Aug 27, 2021 16:33:42 GMT
Cruella
Nightmare Alley
Spencer
The Last Duel
Dune
HM:
The French Dispatch
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
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Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Aug 28, 2021 14:24:32 GMT
In terms of likelihood-
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
Spencer
The French Dispatch
Dune
Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
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Post by DanQuixote on Aug 31, 2021 20:21:21 GMT
01. Spencer
02. Cruella
03. House of Gucci
04. The French Dispatch
05. Nightmare Alley
06. Dune
07. The Last Duel
08. Cyrano
09. West Side Story
10. The Power of the Dog
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 9, 2021 19:37:40 GMT
Cyrano could potentially be a powerhouse. I know it's based on the stage musical so you never know how big the scope is gonna be with projects like that, but this line from Ehrlich's review caught my eye: Hundreds of lavishly costumed extras you say? Massimo Cantini Parrini is coming for round 2  |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2021 16:56:53 GMT
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Post by stephen on Nov 5, 2021 17:01:56 GMT
Not a whole lot has really shifted here for me. The Last Duel absolutely deserves the nod and I think it'll get in at places like BAFTA, but so far I still feel good about the five I predicted back in August.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 5, 2021 22:27:41 GMT
so right now I'm going with:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Spencer
House of Gucci
with Nightmare Alley, Last Duel, French Dispatch and West Side Story in tow. Part of me wonders if Last Duel cancels out Tragedy of Macbeth (or vice versa?) and there's only room for one medieval costume drama at the table. But this is such a stacked category this year. Definitely going to be surprises.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 6, 2021 0:39:30 GMT
Updated:
- Cruella
- Nightmare Alley
- Spencer
- House of Gucci
- Dune
I kinda think that the first three should be easy nominations, Gucci will probably get in because it's a goddamn Gucci movie (although I can see Janty Yates missing for both Ridley projects, as unfortunate as that would be), and I've finally started to predict Dune because the work is indeed there and it's probably gonna get into pretty much all of the tech categories by default.
With that said, the pool of contenders is insane this year. We also have stuff like West Side Story, Cyrano, The Last Duel, Macbeth, The French Dispatch which would make a formidable (and actually rather believable) top 5 as well. I want to predict West Side Story here but the competition is just too tough and probably a touch flashier. It'd be my predicted #6 as of now.
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Post by cheesecake on Nov 6, 2021 4:44:10 GMT
Shame Soho isn't in the conversation -- the costumes were such a standout.
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