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Post by quetee on Jul 12, 2021 23:58:29 GMT
Last month:
Added:
The Whale The Power of The Dog In The Heights
Dropped:
Three Thousand Years of Longing (pushed to 2022) Last Night in Soho
Winner: (TIE) Don't Look Up AND The French Dispatch
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Good God
Badass
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Post by Good God on Jul 13, 2021 0:22:52 GMT
Considering the response for The French Dispatch that came out today, I feel like it's a solid bet for a lower tier Best Picture nomination but I don't really see it as a contender to win. Movies that I see as having the most potential to win are (in no particular order):
Don't Look Up: Timely subject matter, a hot director, and the most prestigious cast of the year are the positives. Negatives include the tone of the movie (a dark comedy/satire) and the potential for critics to be rough on the movie.
Canterbury Glass: I didn't plan on mentioning this at all because of the O. Russell factor, but we know so little about it that I can't rule it out yet. Positives are David O. Russell's track record, a stacked cast, and the fact that it seems to be a period drama. Negatives include David O. Russell's past indiscretions (to say the least) which could come back to haunt him.
House of Gucci: One of the most buzzy titles of the year, the positives include a legendary filmmaker, juicy subject matter, and a respected cast. Negatives include Scott being inconsistent, the accents and the makeup and the prosthetics which could go wrong, and the potential messiness that could come with all the breaking of the 4th wall and talking to the audience stuff that they're going to be entrusting Gaga with.
Nightmare Alley: Coming from great pedigree, the positives include the Academy Award-winning director, the wonderful cast, and great subject matter. Negatives are that it's film noir, which is not exactly a favorite genre for the Academy, and that del Toro just won (though that seems to be becoming less and less of a factor for the Oscars).
West Wide Story: A remake of a previous Best Picture winner, this will be a historic win if it happens for many reasons. Positives include the most beloved director of the modern era, the self-evidently prestigious material, and the diverse cast. Negatives include the unfavorable comparisons to the original that will inevitably happen, the lack of telecasted Globes for the "Musical" push, and the potential "cancellation" of the movie's lead.
The Power of the Dog: Jane Campion hasn't been welcomed at the Oscars for a while now, but this has all the makings of a return. Positives include the respect that Campion still commands, a cast full of actors seen as underappreciated or underrated, and material that's been called special by pretty much everyone that has read it (with comparisons being made to There Will Be Blood, among others). Negatives include that it may not necessarily be Netflix's biggest priority and that it runs the risk of flying under the radar.
I think Netflix has as good a chance this year as it has had since Roma. But there is always the potential for something we're not seriously considering to come in and surprise us all, which seems to be happening increasingly often these days.
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morton
Based
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Post by morton on Jul 13, 2021 0:27:12 GMT
Sticking with House of Gucci still. ETA: Good God pretty much echoed my thoughts on films could see winning although I would include The Tragedy of Macbeth and King Richard too; although they both have cons too. I don’t know I think if House of Gucci works, it’s going to be a tremendous crowd pleaser and do very well at the box office, and I think that’s going to be very important this year.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 13, 2021 0:42:54 GMT
Yeah, already hopping off the French Dispatch train.
Fuck it, I'll go with Gucci too.
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Post by stephen on Jul 13, 2021 1:47:27 GMT
Voting Dune to get it back on the board.
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Post by Mattsby on Jul 13, 2021 1:57:41 GMT
After the mite of last year I think we're gonna see a stargazing Academy... Gucci my current pick, and they love a true story, a lot to talk about...... Nightmare Alley could be the stylish stunner....... w/ Don't Look Up as the safe pick? ....Is the David O Russell coming out this year?
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 13, 2021 2:00:01 GMT
In the Heights I guess. I'm sticking with it for now.
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Post by quetee on Jul 13, 2021 2:05:06 GMT
What do you guys think of Belfast? That sounds like a Toronto audience award winner.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jul 13, 2021 2:22:00 GMT
What do you guys think of Belfast? That sounds like a Toronto audience award winner. It does feel like a potential audience award winner. Not sure how it works though this year with digital screenings still happening, but if still works basically the same, I could see it winning. Not sure about winning BP though just because it feels like something that would have won under Miramax or would have been like the runner up, but I’m not sure it’s something that would win now. Of course, I would have thought the same about Green Book at this point in the year too, so if it’s a big crowdpleaser, that’s all it may need.
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Post by Martin Stett on Jul 13, 2021 2:35:19 GMT
I'm gonna jump off Gucci while everyone else jumps on, because being hip isn't cool.
I'm choosing The Power of the Dog.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 13, 2021 2:54:16 GMT
In the Heights I guess. I'm sticking with it for now. It always surprises me when you decide to troll. Gotta keep a bit of spice on the boards I guess.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jul 13, 2021 4:15:58 GMT
The Tragedy Of Macbeth should be a major option (especially considering some of the options on the poll, which clearly have zero chance of winning BP).
Fran is just coming off the back of a Best Picture winner (which she also produced) with Nomadland and is also a producer on Macbeth , Denzel is the current (sight unseen) predicted Best Actor winner with a lot of prognasticators and Joel Coen obviously has a big track record in the Best Picture Category as a previous winner and multiple nominee .
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 13, 2021 5:01:54 GMT
In the Heights I guess. I'm sticking with it for now. It always surprises me when you decide to troll. Gotta keep a bit of spice on the boards I guess. Not trolling. Heights feels like just as much a potential winner as any of the rest of these.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 13, 2021 5:04:42 GMT
It always surprises me when you decide to troll. Gotta keep a bit of spice on the boards I guess. Not trolling. Heights feels like just as much a potential winner as any of the rest of these. Couldn't disagree more, but only time will tell I guess.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jul 13, 2021 5:10:03 GMT
It always surprises me when you decide to troll. Gotta keep a bit of spice on the boards I guess. Not trolling. Heights feels like just as much a potential winner as any of the rest of these. Well I wouldn't go quite that far, but things like Cry Macho and The Tender Bar seem really out of step with times. Maybe 10 years ago they 'd feel like big players, but Eastwood and Clooney have lost so much of their clout with the Academy and cultural cache with critics. A typical Wes Anderson quirkfest is not winning BP no matter how many arthouse lovers cream over it. Ridley Scott isn't reliable, yet some people think one of his films could be the frontrunner. We'll definitely need things to become clearer.
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Post by quetee on Jul 13, 2021 5:10:05 GMT
The Tragedy Of Macbeth should be a major option (especially considering some of the options on the poll, which clearly have zero chance of winning BP). Fran is just coming off the back of a Best Picture winner (which she also produced) with Nomadland and is also a producer on Macbeth , Denzel is the current (sight unseen) predicted Best Actor winner with a lot of prognasticators and Joel Coen obviously has a big track record in the Best Picture Category as a previous winner and multiple nominee . Yeah, I wouldn't bet against her at this point. She has that Russell Crowe vibe vibe right now where in the early 2000's he found himself in bp nods year after year.
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Post by quetee on Jul 13, 2021 5:12:43 GMT
Not trolling. Heights feels like just as much a potential winner as any of the rest of these. Well I wouldn't go that far, but things like Cry Macho and The Tender Bar seem really out of step with times. Maybe 10 years ago they 'd feel like players, but Eastwood and Clooney have lost so much of their clout with the Academy and with critics. A typical Wes Anderson quickest is not winning BP no matter how many arthouse lovers cream over it. Ridley Scott isn't reliable, yet some people think one of his film's could be the frontrunner. We'll definitely need things to become clearer. The French Dispatch winning the poll last month was beyond out of touch especially since we saw the trailer.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jul 13, 2021 5:32:11 GMT
Well I wouldn't go that far, but things like Cry Macho and The Tender Bar seem really out of step with times. Maybe 10 years ago they 'd feel like players, but Eastwood and Clooney have lost so much of their clout with the Academy and with critics. A typical Wes Anderson quickest is not winning BP no matter how many arthouse lovers cream over it. Ridley Scott isn't reliable, yet some people think one of his film's could be the frontrunner. We'll definitely need things to become clearer. The French Dispatch winning the poll last month was beyond out of touch especially since we saw the trailer. Anderson would probably have to go a little bit more conventional to ever win BP, imho. He obviously has a fanbase within the Academy that admire the production design/elements and quirky nature of his films, but I feel the idiosyncratic nature of his films that make him stand out also hinder him when it comes to getting that broader consensus needed to win BP. Like you say, I can't understand anyone pegging The French Dispatch as a potential BP winner after seeing the trailer. It's typical Anderson. It can certainly win Oscars (costume, production design etc), but BP...could never see it.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 13, 2021 8:21:26 GMT
Hmmmmmmm - I think the reason people picked The French Dispatch is because it was obviously good sight unseen which is almost never the case that you can ever say that - a famous auteur with a visual flair and distinctive style - he delivered exactly as expected ..........sitting at 100% RT atm btw....... Having said that.......this is a year of commercial old fashioned MOVIE movies, not a year of a non-US film or crapping in a bucket (I liked it a lot but ...)...this is a year of a commercial movie and movie stars because the movies are dead without that.........so: House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley.....something everybody will actually see for once......now they just need to be good The Power of the Dog is the spoilfnck here - the book feels like a great movie that hasn't exactly been done yet ........ I'll go Gucci .........as Kanye said : What's that jacket, Margiela?
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Post by DanQuixote on Jul 13, 2021 10:02:32 GMT
Fuck it, going with A Hero.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jul 13, 2021 12:38:06 GMT
Don't Look Up, and House of Gucci feel like obvious picks on paper, but I agree Macbeth could be a sneaky surprise. Joel Coen is an academy favorite, and from all accounts, it sounds like it's an incredible new level of heights for him. Only time will tell, I suppose.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 13, 2021 12:50:44 GMT
I'd vote for CODA but the reviews are not very promising.
Dunno... Gucci? Or Don't Look Up. I don't see any of the remakes winning.
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Post by franklin on Jul 13, 2021 13:09:21 GMT
Don't Look Up. A dark political satire in the vein of Dr.Strangelove and Network?? Unless McKay completely screws up the material, i'd say Academy voters will eat it up.
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Post by quetee on Jul 13, 2021 20:23:15 GMT
Hmmmmmmm - I think the reason people picked The French Dispatch is because it was obviously good sight unseen which is almost never the case that you can ever say that - a famous auteur with a visual flair and distinctive style - he delivered exactly as expected ..........sitting at 100% RT atm btw....... Having said that.......this is a year of commercial old fashioned MOVIE movies, not a year of a non-US film or crapping in a bucket (I liked it a lot but ...)...this is a year of a commercial movie and movie stars because the movies are dead without that.........so: House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley.....something everybody will actually see for once......now they just need to be good The Power of the Dog is the spoilfnck here - the book feels like a great movie that hasn't exactly been done yet ........ I'll go Gucci .........as Kanye said : What's that jacket, Margiela? What do you mean unseen? The trailer was the biggest hint ever that it wasn't going to win BP.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 13, 2021 20:56:21 GMT
Hmmmmmmm - I think the reason people picked The French Dispatch is because it was obviously good sight unseen which is almost never the case that you can ever say that - a famous auteur with a visual flair and distinctive style - he delivered exactly as expected ..........sitting at 100% RT atm btw....... Having said that.......this is a year of commercial old fashioned MOVIE movies, not a year of a non-US film or crapping in a bucket (I liked it a lot but ...)...this is a year of a commercial movie and movie stars because the movies are dead without that.........so: House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley.....something everybody will actually see for once......now they just need to be good The Power of the Dog is the spoilfnck here - the book feels like a great movie that hasn't exactly been done yet ........ I'll go Gucci .........as Kanye said : What's that jacket, Margiela? What do you mean unseen? The trailer was the biggest hint ever that it wasn't going to win BP. Not to me..........sight unseen means exactly that - not "seeing the trailer" but "seeing the movie" - of all the films we have not had screenings for his at least you knew was going to be good - because he's never directed anything bad, he was making a film in his style and executing it........ymmv None of the other movies on that list are like that ^ ..........so that's why people voted for it........it's comfort food as a pick because he couldn't fnck it up........he didn't fnck it up (95% RT now)........but like I said a big movie will win........nothing small, quirky or niche imo
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