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Post by stephen on Apr 26, 2021 13:25:18 GMT
1. Do not doubt Sony Picture Classics. They know what they are doing.
2. BAFTA is officially a more effective prognosticator than SAG, especially after the SAG-AFTRA expansion.
3. If you're going to be structuring your ceremony around a moment, maybe have a peek at the envelope to make sure your big moment isn't going to blow up in your face?
Feel free to add your own.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Apr 26, 2021 13:39:11 GMT
- In the case of a fractured acting race, go with the strongest film in contention
- Never hire Soderbergh as producer again
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Apr 26, 2021 13:39:15 GMT
Not showing Oscar clips is dumb AF.
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morton
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Post by morton on Apr 26, 2021 13:49:55 GMT
Narrative really doesn’t mean anything anymore for acting awards. With Best Picture I think it does in a way, or at least sometimes can like Green Book being a populist choice after Moonlight’s win or Spotlight being a safe choice yet important choice,, but there’s so many choices that they have more freedom as to what kind of statement they want to make with the biggest award of the night. And of course knowing this still won’t stop me from overthinking things next awards season lol.
Also it’s a good bet that there will be at least one repeat winner for one of the four acting awards. So maybe good for Denzel since at least on paper I think he has the best shot even if Shakespeare isn’t in favor with award voters. Or maybe Christian Bale; although, I think they’ll have cooled on Russell. Or maybe someone from Don’t Look Up, except I heard Streep might have the best chance, and every year I get burnt predicting her early on, so I’m not doing it this year. Finally since it was his birthday yesterday, maybe Pacino for House of Gucci. I’m sure there’s a bunch I’m missing, but off the top of my head, I think these actors have the best chances of winning again.
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Post by stabcaesar on Apr 26, 2021 13:57:44 GMT
When a film peaks late in the season and is overwhelmingly positively received by critics, the industry, and audience alike, expect it to overperform. Yes I'm referring to The Father.
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Post by bob-coppola on Apr 26, 2021 14:03:02 GMT
Being in a strong movie and/or winning BAFTA > narrative.
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Post by Miles Morales on Apr 26, 2021 14:04:57 GMT
The Academy still isn't comfortable with complete Netflix domination
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Post by TerryMontana on Apr 26, 2021 14:16:56 GMT
Always end the ceremony on BP!
ALWAYS!!!
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Post by bob-coppola on Apr 26, 2021 14:31:24 GMT
Unless you have a juggernaut hit like Shallow or the LLL songs nominated, don't even bother having the Original Songs performed in the telecast. Didn't miss them at all.
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Post by wilcinema on Apr 26, 2021 15:00:34 GMT
Not really related to this season, but I've said it other times. Let the branches vote for the techs, to me it's the only way for those awards to make sense.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 26, 2021 15:08:34 GMT
4. I'm no longer a fan of Steven Soderbergh.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 26, 2021 15:19:25 GMT
I’ve been thinking about The Father’s campaign. I think the late release hurt it on nominations and precursors but helped it with wins. Something very similar actually happened with Django Unchained. Both filmed missed director and DGA and were assumed to not be top 5 films but won two major awards on Oscar night.
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Post by countjohn on Apr 26, 2021 15:41:26 GMT
The BAFTAS weird race quota rules sort of unwittingly showed us who the real front runners were. Since a bunch of people who clearly had no shot got nominated the contenders who got nominated should have been considered the frontrunners. That was absolutely the case with McDormand vs Mulligan/Davis.
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Post by DeepArcher on Apr 26, 2021 16:03:55 GMT
Let chaos reign. Soderbergh is  |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 26, 2021 16:39:51 GMT
The Academy doesn't give a damn how many Oscars you have or when did you win them if they really like your work. Two, three, four, doesn't matter anymore.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 26, 2021 16:53:26 GMT
5. That James Franco and Anne Hathaway could do a better job than Steven Soderbergh.
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Post by mrimpossible on Apr 26, 2021 16:54:02 GMT
We underestimated Frances McDormand too much this season. Really the only argument against her was that she won 2 Oscars before.
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Post by quetee on Apr 26, 2021 17:00:17 GMT
The Academy still isn't comfortable with complete Netflix domination That and they seem to greenlight movies people like rather than love. |
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Post by stephen on Apr 26, 2021 17:01:14 GMT
5. That James Franco and Anne Hathaway could do a better job than Steven Soderbergh. They really, really couldn't. Don't get me wrong, this ceremony went south in the last half-hour, but the Franco/Hathaway ceremony was grueling. |
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Post by wilcinema on Apr 26, 2021 17:06:19 GMT
We underestimated Frances McDormand too much this season. Really the only argument against her was that she won 2 Oscars before. True, and it is consistent with what we've seen recently. Many thought they wouldn't give Mahershala Ali a second Oscar so soon but they did because they liked him and his performance. Many thought that Denzel would win his third after winning at SAG but they just liked Casey Affleck more. And of course, it is consistent with the Close vs Colman race or the Bong vs Mendes race. They vote for what they like, regardless of narratives. Though I maintain that this year's extended season helped Hopkins, because it really felt like Boseman had peaked too early at some point (hence the Indie Spirit win for Riz Ahmed). |
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Post by quetee on Apr 26, 2021 17:37:02 GMT
We underestimated Frances McDormand too much this season. Really the only argument against her was that she won 2 Oscars before. Everybody thought this. Only one expert at Gold Derby called her win. |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Apr 26, 2021 17:40:58 GMT
Wait until the televised precursors and do not take critics awards too seriously.
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Post by stephen on Apr 26, 2021 17:58:47 GMT
Wait until the televised precursors and do not take critics awards too seriously. To be fair, McDormand was a huge critical favorite (she was either first or second in terms of critics' prizes along with Mulligan; I gave up counting), and I think if she hadn't won her second so recently, she would've been taken far more seriously seeing as she was the lead of the overwhelming BP frontrunner. |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Apr 26, 2021 18:02:27 GMT
To be fair, McDormand was a huge critical favorite (she was either first or second in terms of critics' prizes along with Mulligan; I gave up counting), and I think if she hadn't won her second so recently, she would've been taken far more seriously seeing as she was the lead of the overwhelming BP frontrunner. True, but even a broken clock is right twice a day. Of course, none of this is to suggest that critics are or should even try to shape or predict the Oscar race. I like all awards shows being their own things and voting for what they actually like. It's just that I have just always felt like critics awards are given more credit than they are due on how much they impact the Oscars. |
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Post by quetee on Apr 26, 2021 18:03:03 GMT
To be fair, McDormand was a huge critical favorite (she was either first or second in terms of critics' prizes along with Mulligan; I gave up counting), and I think if she hadn't won her second so recently, she would've been taken far more seriously seeing as she was the lead of the overwhelming BP frontrunner. True, but even a broken clock is right twice a day. Of course, none of this is to suggest that critics are or should even try to shape or predict the Oscar race. I like all awards shows being their own things and voting for what they actually like. It's just that I have just always felt like critics awards are given more credit than they are due on how much they impact the Oscars. They put people on the map. |
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