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Post by Brother Fease on Apr 22, 2021 1:42:55 GMT
Experts - 12 for Davis, 9 for Mulligan, 5 for Day, and 2 for McDormand
There seems to be a push toward Davis.
Why the push toward Davis?
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 22, 2021 2:04:26 GMT
I'm pretty sure nearly all these "specialists" were treating her as a lock for The Help...
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Apr 22, 2021 2:31:13 GMT
You can't really argue against any of Davis, Day, and Mulligan this year, I think. All of them have got a decent shot. With that said, I'd probably rank them (in order of likelihood of winning):
1. Day
2. Mulligan
3. Davis
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Post by mrimpossible on Apr 22, 2021 3:20:20 GMT
Davis won SAG which is extremely important especially in a split year like this.
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Post by Brother Fease on Apr 22, 2021 10:38:27 GMT
Davis won SAG which is extremely important especially in a split year like this. All four actresses have a strong case.
Day - Won the Globe and plays a real-life person. The Best Actress winner hasn't lost the globe since 2002.
Davis - Won the SAG, plays a real-life person, and does the gain weight/fat suit deal. SAG's current accuracy is 20 out of 26 (77%), if you count Kate Winslet for The Reader.
McDormand - Won the BAFTA. The Oscar Best Actress winner and the BAFTA winner have matched for the last seven years. She's also won the most best actress trophies this season and attached to the most likely best picture winner.
Mulligan - Won the Critics Choice, which has the least accuracy measurements. But she's in a Best Picture nominee, never won before, and won almost the same amount of best actress trophies as McDormand.
So I get the recent push toward Davis: Won the SAG and the performance screams Oscar.
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Post by wallsofjericho on Apr 22, 2021 13:25:01 GMT
At this point, with the exception of Kirby, I wouldn't be surprised who wins.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Apr 22, 2021 13:32:30 GMT
I’ll be so disappointed if Davis wins. It would make such a poor Lead Actress win when you look at the competition.
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morton
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Post by morton on Apr 22, 2021 13:42:32 GMT
Experts - 12 for Davis, 9 for Mulligan, 5 for Day, and 2 for McDormand
There seems to be a push toward Davis.
Why the push toward Davis?
I think it’s because she’s been very visible during phase II of voting, and I think that might be enough in this weird year. Mulligan is probably next because she did SNL and appeared at some guild awards, but I’ve seen Davis a lot over the past two weeks compared to the other four nominees. |
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Post by bob-coppola on Apr 22, 2021 15:20:23 GMT
I've been feeling more McDormand these past weeks, but anything could happen.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 22, 2021 15:49:01 GMT
SAG. That’s why.
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Post by countjohn on Apr 22, 2021 17:20:04 GMT
I'm still saying Davis but this is just a really weird year for actress. Normally I'd say a UK actress like Mulligan not getting BAFTA would be a death blow but given the weird race quota rules they have this year (all the nominees having their ethnicity in parenthesis next to their name on the wikipedia page is not great optics  ) not sure how big of a precursor it is anymore. Davis just has the biggest confluence of factors, though. The Academy obviously likes her and the role is less edgy than Mulligan's. She's probably more overdue for a second than Mulligan is for a first. |
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Apr 22, 2021 17:30:29 GMT
Well keeping it simple, she's Viola Davis. She's well liked and respected and doesn't have a lead actress win. Predicating her, when there is and actual race here, seems sensible enough.
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Post by stephen on Apr 22, 2021 17:42:05 GMT
In such a fractured year, they are just opting to go with the SAG winner, who happens to be one of the most well-respected actresses alive who so many people think is owed a leading trophy, especially as the BAFTA winner has already won twice and is not campaigning.
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Apr 22, 2021 17:56:06 GMT
Nah, they were also predicting Glenn Close to win for The Wife two years ago (they even had Gaga ahead of Colman in the predictions) and look what happened... They're as much in the dark as we are, if not more.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Apr 22, 2021 19:56:43 GMT
Sticking with Andra Day. Clearly the best imo and she only needs like 25% of the votes to win... if it's really a 4-way race like we think it is. It's also the most "Oscar!" role by faaar.
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Post by stephen on Apr 22, 2021 19:58:13 GMT
Nah, they were also predicting Glenn Close to win for The Wife two years ago (they even had Gaga ahead of Colman in the predictions) and look what happened... They're as much in the dark as we are, if not more. Indeed. Oscar prognosticators don't have any more insight into the race than we do; they may get "tea" from secret ballots or conversations they have with "voters", but they're as wrong as they are right. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 22, 2021 20:15:26 GMT
probably more overdue for a second than Mulligan is for a first. Hell no. Mulligan was robbed of a win because people thought Sandra Bullock was nice. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Apr 22, 2021 21:13:21 GMT
Sticking with Andra Day. Clearly the best imo and she only needs like 25% of the votes to win... if it's really a 4-way race like we think it is. It's also the most "Oscar!" role by faaar. I have looked at 16 of these secret ballots, and it's literally even steven. I suspect we're going to see a tie to be honest, much like in 1969, where Streisand and Hepburn tied.
As for Day, I think she missed out on the SAG and BAFTA because voters didn't see the movie on time.
You're 100% correct that the performance does scream Oscar.
Real-life person? Check. Drug addict? Check. Lots of heart-stringing, big moments? Check. The performer goes outside of their comfort zone? Check. It's her first performance.
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Apr 22, 2021 21:28:49 GMT
Sticking with Andra Day. Clearly the best imo and she only needs like 25% of the votes to win... if it's really a 4-way race like we think it is. It's also the most "Oscar!" role by faaar. Even in the light of our most recent winner, it would make a lot of sense. Both her and Zellweger played a real-life person, both did their own singing, they're their film's sole nomination (ok, not really in case of Zellweger, but Actress + Makeup doesn't amount to much. Day's film could have had that nomination too). But I'm still holding out hopes for Mulligan, a remarkable actress who's been delivering consistently great work since 2009 (An Education, Never Let Me Go, Drive, Shame, Inside Llewyn Davis, Suffragette, Wildlife, and now Promising Young Woman). She has had perhaps the best reviews, the Academy seems to have liked her film a lot, she's a second time nominee... I feel that it's either her or Day. I can't see the Academy wanting to award a previous winner, not when performances of Mulligan's and Day's caliber are also in contention. |
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Apr 22, 2021 23:27:19 GMT
Whatever way this goes, isn't it great that it is such a race. I'd love Day to win, I'd be more than pleased with Mulligan or Kirby (not happening) . Supporting as I think she is, this might be my favourite Davis performance, so I could just about tolerate her winning. Unfortunately I still haven't seen McDormand, but somehow I suspect I will be on board with her work when I see it.
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Post by cheesecake on Apr 23, 2021 0:46:09 GMT
I love spice in the race until it's THIS year and in THIS category.  I've prepared myself to be gutted when Mulligan loses.  |
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Apr 23, 2021 1:08:59 GMT
As crazy and wide open as this race is, I think in the end it's just Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis battling it out and it's very close. McDormand is a dark horse in 3rd place with a slight chance of winning. Andra Day is in 4th place with a very low chance of winning. And we all know poor Kirby is 5th (but if she were to win that would be the glorious cherry on top of this bonkers race).
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Post by dadsburgers on Apr 23, 2021 1:59:01 GMT
How close does the race have to be for them to call it a tie? Have the rules changed since the last time it happened in this category in the 60s? I believe there was a tie in a sound category about 10 years ago. Is there any chance of a three-way tie? |
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) not sure how big of a precursor it is anymore. Davis just has the biggest confluence of factors, though. The Academy obviously likes her and the role is less edgy than Mulligan's. She's probably more overdue for a second than Mulligan is for a first. 
I've prepared myself to be gutted when Mulligan loses. 
