|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Apr 18, 2021 1:22:06 GMT
Among the major Guilds, we have the following:
The Father, Mank, The Sound of Metal - No wins. Judas and the Black Messiah - SAG (Supporting Actor) Minari - SAG (Supporting Actress)
Nomadland - PGA, DGA Promising Young Woman - WGA The Trial of the Chicago 7 - SAG (Ensemble), ACE (Drama)
Most major Guild wins typically wins here. The exceptions were Three Billboards (Discount individual acting, The Shape of Water won the most), La La Land, The Big Short (The 3rd was ACE in Comedy/Musical), Traffic (Gladiator had 2 wins, Traffic had 3), and Apollo 13.
I have never seen a Best Picture winner with zero or only one win in the PGA and SAG era.
If Nomadland wins, it'll be the first film to win the BAFTA Best Film and the Oscar Best Picture since 12 Years a Slave in 2014.
I am wondering if anybody is picking something besides Nomadland. Personally I am going with Nomadland here.
|
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 18, 2021 1:31:34 GMT
I’m obviously predicting Nomadland but people shouldn’t pretend some crazy shit can’t happen. It happens in some category every year and everybody seems to forget that the next year. (Or they pretend it wasn’t surprising)
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Apr 18, 2021 1:41:04 GMT
I’m obviously predicting Nomadland but people shouldn’t pretend some crazy shit can’t happen. It happens in some category every year and everybody seems to forget that the next year. (Or they pretend it wasn’t surprising) Promising Young Woman or Chicago 7 still have a shot at winning. Just imagine if The Father won. |
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Apr 18, 2021 1:59:58 GMT
I’m predicting it at this point but still think there’s an outside chance it loses.
|
|
flasuss
Badass
Posts: 1,844 
Likes: 1,630
|
Post by flasuss on Apr 18, 2021 2:06:35 GMT
I’m obviously predicting Nomadland but people shouldn’t pretend some crazy shit can’t happen. It happens in some category every year and everybody seems to forget that the next year. (Or they pretend it wasn’t surprising) The latter is specially more common. People act like all surprising (when not outright shocking) results were very obvious and predictable. |
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 18, 2021 2:13:20 GMT
I’m obviously predicting Nomadland but people shouldn’t pretend some crazy shit can’t happen. It happens in some category every year and everybody seems to forget that the next year. (Or they pretend it wasn’t surprising) The latter is specially more common. People act like all surprising (when not outright shocking) results were very obvious and predictable. I saw a thread of people saying Moonlight wasn’t a surprise. Vegas odds say otherwise. |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Apr 18, 2021 2:32:53 GMT
The latter is specially more common. People act like all surprising (when not outright shocking) results were very obvious and predictable. I saw a thread of people saying Moonlight wasn’t a surprise. Vegas odds say otherwise. I wouldn't really consider Moonlight a surprise, but an upset. Moonlight won the SAG for Best Supporting Actor and beat out both La La Land and Manchester for Best Original Screenplay at the WGA awards. It also won the Globe for Drama.
There has only been a few surprises, since I first started watching the Oscars back in 1997:
- Marcia Gay Harden beating out Judi Dench and Kate Hudson for Best Supporting Actress. - Denzel Washington beating out Russell "Phone Tosser" Crowe in 2001.
- Adrien Brody and Ronald Harwood beating out Daniel Day-Lewis and David Hare (The Hours). - Geoffrey Fletcher beating out Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for Up in the Air for Best Adapted Screenplay.
|
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 18, 2021 2:45:37 GMT
I saw a thread of people saying Moonlight wasn’t a surprise. Vegas odds say otherwise. I wouldn't really consider Moonlight a surprise, but an upset. Moonlight won the SAG for Best Supporting Actor and beat out both La La Land and Manchester for Best Original Screenplay at the WGA awards. It also won the Globe for Drama.
There has only been a few surprises, since I first started watching the Oscars back in 1997:
- Marcia Gay Harden beating out Judi Dench and Kate Hudson for Best Supporting Actress. - Denzel Washington beating out Russell "Phone Tosser" Crowe in 2001.
- Adrien Brody and Ronald Harwood beating out Daniel Day-Lewis and David Hare (The Hours). - Geoffrey Fletcher beating out Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for Up in the Air for Best Adapted Screenplay.
This is exactly what I’m talking about man. The Vegas and Goldderby odds (also the polls from our message board) had Moonlight as a huge underdog. A film winning PGA, Globe, DGA, BFCA and Bafta and losing the Oscar was huge at the time. |
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 18, 2021 2:51:22 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Apr 18, 2021 10:32:04 GMT
I'd love it if they lost to Chicago 7 but I just can't see this happening.
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Apr 18, 2021 12:49:39 GMT
Moonlight was the underdog. Nobody is questioning that. Was it a surprise? No way. Everybody knew it was going to go toward La La Land or Moonlight. Those were the two front-runners. Most people leaned toward La La Land because it won big at the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Guilds. A surprise would have been Manchester By the Sea or Arrival winning Best Picture. I do remember that Matt Atchity and Sasha Stone predicted Moonlight to win.
|
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 18, 2021 16:25:32 GMT
Moonlight was the underdog. Nobody is questioning that. Was it a surprise? No way. Everybody knew it was going to go toward La La Land or Moonlight. Those were the two front-runners. Most people leaned toward La La Land because it won big at the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Guilds. A surprise would have been Manchester By the Sea or Arrival winning Best Picture. I do remember that Matt Atchity and Sasha Stone predicted Moonlight to win.
What the hell is the difference between underdog and surprise? I was surprised when it happened so was almost everybody else. Does that not constitute a surprise. 18:1 is a surprising result statistically. For perspective PYM and Minari are both 16:1 and Trial is 6:1. |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Apr 18, 2021 17:04:59 GMT
Moonlight was the underdog. Nobody is questioning that. Was it a surprise? No way. Everybody knew it was going to go toward La La Land or Moonlight. Those were the two front-runners. Most people leaned toward La La Land because it won big at the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Guilds. A surprise would have been Manchester By the Sea or Arrival winning Best Picture. I do remember that Matt Atchity and Sasha Stone predicted Moonlight to win.
What the hell is the difference between underdog and surprise? I was surprised when it happened so was almost everybody else. Does that not constitute a surprise. 18:1 is a surprising result statistically. For perspective PYM and Minari are both 16:1 and Trial is 6:1. There's a small difference. A "surprise" means you didn't see it coming. "Underdog" means you believe it could happen, but feel another contender is favored to win.
|
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 18, 2021 17:14:44 GMT
What the hell is the difference between underdog and surprise? I was surprised when it happened so was almost everybody else. Does that not constitute a surprise. 18:1 is a surprising result statistically. For perspective PYM and Minari are both 16:1 and Trial is 6:1. There's a small difference. A "surprise" means you didn't see it coming. "Underdog" means you believe it could happen, but feel another contender is favored to win.
I feel like that’s a definition you just made up... Shouldn’t surprising be something that makes you surprised? You know like the dictionary says. You can be surprised by things you know CAN happen. |
|
flasuss
Badass
Posts: 1,844
Likes: 1,630
|
Post by flasuss on Apr 19, 2021 0:40:14 GMT
For fuck sake, La La Land tied for the nominations record, after beating the record of wins for the Golden Globe. Moonlight beating it was a bigger shock than Crash beating Brokeback Mountain, and that without taking into account the whole wrong envelope non-sense.
|
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Apr 19, 2021 3:33:56 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised if Cinematography actually ends up going to Mank since it's more in line with what typically wins in that category, plus The Father has a very real chance in Adapted Screenplay........ and in that case it would be very strange for Nomadland to win BP with its only other win in Directing (assuming McDormand loses). Still predicting it at the moment, but some of my pre-PGA doubts are starting to crop up again...
|
|
