10th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation
Apr 14, 2021 17:33:46 GMT
Martin Stett, The_Cake_of_Roth, and 1 more like this
Post by acmilan03c1 on Apr 14, 2021 17:33:46 GMT
Hello, all! I hope all of you are fine and healthy... I know I don't come here often but, nevertheless, here I am, once again, on the eve of the opening of Oscar voting, hoping to collect some ballots from you fine folks for my own yearly preferential ballot simulation... All who have seen each of the eight Best Picture nominees at the Oscars this year (or, at the very least, all but Mank - which, unfortunately, clearly has no shot at winning either here or at the Oscars - and maybe Judas and the Black Messiah - which probably also hasn't got much of a chance, although this is less clear) are warmly invited to post their ranked ballots (personal order of preference, of course, not winning chances) in reply to this comment (to facilitate tabulation at the end), for the 10th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation I will have run - with many thanks, of course!...
I'm probably going to keep voting open until Monday, which coincidentally is roughly equivalent to the Oscar voting period. I usually do this right after BAFTA but, even so, this has never quite happened before. [Update: As planned, I saw the two I was missing, so here's my vote:]
1. Promising Young Woman
2. Nomadland
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. The Father
5. Mank
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Sound of Metal
8. Minari
The most interesting thing about this simulation, as past contributors will remember, is that there is now a running seven-year streak (arguably eight, as Silver Linings Playbook didn't necessarily do worse than Argo's other challengers in 2013 at the Oscars) of the likely runner-up for Best Picture at the Oscars finishing either in second or virtually tied for second place in this as well. (Details below. As can be seen, the Oscar-winner has come in first before, three times. But never in second - 0/9...) The beginning of this streak coincides with the year I started holding these simulations at both Awards Daily and on the old IMDb Message Boards. (The first two years I only collected votes at IMDb.) Obviously, this year looks like the most locked-in one (in Best Picture) since at least the Argo year. Personally, I don't quite consider either that or Nomadland locks - like The Artist or The King's Speech, for example -, but both were mighty close, despite their two respective stats-relevant misses (Argo, being snubbed for directing, Nomadland, not getting either the ensemble mention or at least two acting nominations at SAG, a tally which only Braveheart could not match or trump, out of all of the SAG era Oscar Best Picture winners). So, I would say it's still not 100% clear that Nomadland will win (and we've certainly been given plenty of reasons to almost always doubt the front-runner the last 6-7 years) and it might help to know which movie is not likely to upset it (as per this stat about coming in second place in this simulation), plus it's always nice to get a clearer picture about what you guys all think are the best of the nominees.
The history:
2011 The Social Network ----------- details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 - not held -
2013 Zero Dark Thirty -------------- 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her -------------------------- 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ---------------------- 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road ---------- 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight -------------------- 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ------------- 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name *
2019 The Favourite ---------------- 45-30 over Roma
2020 Parasite --------------------- 46-14 over The Irishman *
* Three Billboards was tied with Call Me By Your Name at the moment when one had to be eliminated in third place (on tiebreaks). 1917 was three votes behind The Irishman when Parasite reached 50%+1 of the votes, but was ranked ahead of The Irishman on just as many ballots as not (30-30), so it, too, was extremely close to coming in second place. (Only Parasite's utter domination - the most crushing win ever seen in one of these -, which took away most of the ballots, probably prevented it from at least tying for second.)
1. Promising Young Woman
2. Nomadland
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. The Father
5. Mank
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Sound of Metal
8. Minari
The most interesting thing about this simulation, as past contributors will remember, is that there is now a running seven-year streak (arguably eight, as Silver Linings Playbook didn't necessarily do worse than Argo's other challengers in 2013 at the Oscars) of the likely runner-up for Best Picture at the Oscars finishing either in second or virtually tied for second place in this as well. (Details below. As can be seen, the Oscar-winner has come in first before, three times. But never in second - 0/9...) The beginning of this streak coincides with the year I started holding these simulations at both Awards Daily and on the old IMDb Message Boards. (The first two years I only collected votes at IMDb.) Obviously, this year looks like the most locked-in one (in Best Picture) since at least the Argo year. Personally, I don't quite consider either that or Nomadland locks - like The Artist or The King's Speech, for example -, but both were mighty close, despite their two respective stats-relevant misses (Argo, being snubbed for directing, Nomadland, not getting either the ensemble mention or at least two acting nominations at SAG, a tally which only Braveheart could not match or trump, out of all of the SAG era Oscar Best Picture winners). So, I would say it's still not 100% clear that Nomadland will win (and we've certainly been given plenty of reasons to almost always doubt the front-runner the last 6-7 years) and it might help to know which movie is not likely to upset it (as per this stat about coming in second place in this simulation), plus it's always nice to get a clearer picture about what you guys all think are the best of the nominees.
The history:
2011 The Social Network ----------- details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 - not held -
2013 Zero Dark Thirty -------------- 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her -------------------------- 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ---------------------- 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road ---------- 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight -------------------- 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ------------- 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name *
2019 The Favourite ---------------- 45-30 over Roma
2020 Parasite --------------------- 46-14 over The Irishman *
* Three Billboards was tied with Call Me By Your Name at the moment when one had to be eliminated in third place (on tiebreaks). 1917 was three votes behind The Irishman when Parasite reached 50%+1 of the votes, but was ranked ahead of The Irishman on just as many ballots as not (30-30), so it, too, was extremely close to coming in second place. (Only Parasite's utter domination - the most crushing win ever seen in one of these -, which took away most of the ballots, probably prevented it from at least tying for second.)
