|
|
Post by madmonsterparty on Apr 11, 2021 20:36:14 GMT
Thanks in advance for voting and any opinions or comments you may have!
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Apr 11, 2021 20:52:16 GMT
Nomadland. I think it's going to win Best Picture. I rarely predict anybody to win Best Picture without a screenplay win.
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Apr 11, 2021 21:11:02 GMT
I think Nomadland is still slightly ahead because Picture and Screenplay are so intrinsically tied, but the thing is, Zhao is already winning Best Director and it is a much more directorial piece than a writing one, and The Father has an insanely showy screenplay and it is the main place they can reward a film they clearly liked if Boseman is still winning Best Actor.
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Apr 11, 2021 21:25:57 GMT
I think Nomadland is still slightly ahead because Picture and Screenplay are so intrinsically tied, but the thing is, Zhao is already winning Best Director and it is a much more directorial piece than a writing one, and The Father has an insanely showy screenplay and it is the main place they can reward a film they clearly liked if Boseman is still winning Best Actor. If they love Nomadland as much as we think they do, I don't think it is losing Adapted Screenplay. The Academy tends to either go picture-screenplay or picture-director-screenplay. You may think it more directorial piece, but that doesn't make the screenplay unworthy of winning. On top of that, best picture winners typically get coupled with at least two of the following: director, screenplay, acting, and editing.
As far as I can see, if The Father wins Adapted Screenplay, that's a sign that Promising Young Woman will win Best Picture.
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Apr 11, 2021 22:10:49 GMT
I think Nomadland is still slightly ahead because Picture and Screenplay are so intrinsically tied, but the thing is, Zhao is already winning Best Director and it is a much more directorial piece than a writing one, and The Father has an insanely showy screenplay and it is the main place they can reward a film they clearly liked if Boseman is still winning Best Actor. If they love Nomadland as much as we think they do, I don't think it is losing Adapted Screenplay. The Academy tends to either go picture-screenplay or picture-director-screenplay. You may think it more directorial piece, but that doesn't make the screenplay unworthy of winning. On top of that, best picture winners typically get coupled with at least two of the following: director, screenplay, acting, and editing.
As far as I can see, if The Father wins Adapted Screenplay, that's a sign that Promising Young Woman will win Best Picture.
They love Nomadland, but the Academy has been very much in a spread-the-wealth sort of mood the last several years. And Chloe Zhao is already guaranteed one Oscar for Best Director, and she wins a second for Best Picture. Editing and Adapted Screenplay would go to her as well. And the thing is, people know that and recognize that. And I'm not saying that the screenplay is unworthy (I adore it), but it is an untraditional winner and The Father does have pedigree behind it. It won BAFTA, it is co-written by the original author and a previous winner, and it's gaining critical momentum at the perfect time. Nomadland is ahead but I think The Father could easily take it and that wouldn't derail Nomadland in Best Picture at all. It just would mean that they deigned to reward someone else rather than give Zhao three Oscars in one night. |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Apr 11, 2021 22:59:52 GMT
If they love Nomadland as much as we think they do, I don't think it is losing Adapted Screenplay. The Academy tends to either go picture-screenplay or picture-director-screenplay. You may think it more directorial piece, but that doesn't make the screenplay unworthy of winning. On top of that, best picture winners typically get coupled with at least two of the following: director, screenplay, acting, and editing.
As far as I can see, if The Father wins Adapted Screenplay, that's a sign that Promising Young Woman will win Best Picture.
They love Nomadland, but the Academy has been very much in a spread-the-wealth sort of mood the last several years. And Chloe Zhao is already guaranteed one Oscar for Best Director, and she wins a second for Best Picture. Editing and Adapted Screenplay would go to her as well. And the thing is, people know that and recognize that. And I'm not saying that the screenplay is unworthy (I adore it), but it is an untraditional winner and The Father does have pedigree behind it. It won BAFTA, it is co-written by the original author and a previous winner, and it's gaining critical momentum at the perfect time. Nomadland is ahead but I think The Father could easily take it and that wouldn't derail Nomadland in Best Picture at all. It just would mean that they deigned to reward someone else rather than give Zhao three Oscars in one night. Bong Joon-ho took home 3 Oscars last season. You could argue he took home 4, if you count Best Intentional Film.
Alejandro González Iñárritu won 3 Oscars for co-producing, directing, and co-writing Birdman. Ditto for the Coen Brothers and No Country for Old Men.
It is perfectly within the Academy's tradition to give out three Oscars to one person on the same night.
Nomadland won the Scripter and Critics Choice. The Father just won the BAFTA.
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Apr 11, 2021 23:01:46 GMT
They love Nomadland, but the Academy has been very much in a spread-the-wealth sort of mood the last several years. And Chloe Zhao is already guaranteed one Oscar for Best Director, and she wins a second for Best Picture. Editing and Adapted Screenplay would go to her as well. And the thing is, people know that and recognize that. And I'm not saying that the screenplay is unworthy (I adore it), but it is an untraditional winner and The Father does have pedigree behind it. It won BAFTA, it is co-written by the original author and a previous winner, and it's gaining critical momentum at the perfect time. Nomadland is ahead but I think The Father could easily take it and that wouldn't derail Nomadland in Best Picture at all. It just would mean that they deigned to reward someone else rather than give Zhao three Oscars in one night. Bong Joon-ho took home 3 Oscars last season. You could argue he took home 4, if you count Best Intentional Film.
Alejandro González Iñárritu won 3 Oscars for co-producing, directing, and co-writing Birdman. Ditto for the Coen Brothers and No Country for Old Men.
It is perfectly within the Academy's tradition to give out three Oscars to one person on the same night.
Nomadland won the Scripter and Critics Choice. The Father just won the BAFTA.
Like I said, I still think Nomadland is ahead. I just think that The Father could take the prize and it wouldn't surprise me at all. It's a very showy script and it's peaking at the perfect moment. |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Apr 11, 2021 23:10:31 GMT
Bong Joon-ho took home 3 Oscars last season. You could argue he took home 4, if you count Best Intentional Film.
Alejandro González Iñárritu won 3 Oscars for co-producing, directing, and co-writing Birdman. Ditto for the Coen Brothers and No Country for Old Men.
It is perfectly within the Academy's tradition to give out three Oscars to one person on the same night.
Nomadland won the Scripter and Critics Choice. The Father just won the BAFTA.
Like I said, I still think Nomadland is ahead. I just think that The Father could take the prize and it wouldn't surprise me at all. It's a very showy script and it's peaking at the perfect moment. I just think the "spread the love" mentality doesn't really work with the Academy. They gave Bong Joon-ho at least 3 Oscars last season. Voters didn't say, "Bong is going to win Picture and Screenplay, I'll vote for Mendes for director." It was instead, we loved Parasite. We're going to check all the boxes. |
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 11, 2021 23:46:14 GMT
still giving the edge to Nomadland just because everyone loves it so much but would love to see a Hampton/Zeller upset. The Father needs to win something.
|
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Apr 11, 2021 23:47:38 GMT
It's gonna be close. The Father is surging late and did almost as well as it could in terms of nominations. So it is a good position...but so is Nomadland.
|
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 12, 2021 0:27:44 GMT
The Father is coming on late. I wonder if it has come out a month earlier if it would have been an easy front runner here and if Zeller could have gotten a director nod
|
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Apr 12, 2021 1:10:38 GMT
Ah, what the hell - let's bet on The Father.
Nomadland is definitely a very strong contender too but I think it sorta helps The Father that Nomadland doesn't really fit the profile of your typical screenplay winner. It's deceptively free-flowing quality may make voters pick something else and The Father seems like a perfect alternative.
|
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Apr 12, 2021 5:17:48 GMT
The Father but Nomadland would be no surprise.
|
|
