|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Apr 20, 2021 21:34:42 GMT
after watching Billie Holiday I'm more confused than ever. I'd say Day hands down because she's brilliant and the Academy loves these kinds of transformative biopic performances, but then why was she snubbed at SAG?? I thought it was because screeners were sent late. |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Apr 20, 2021 23:21:47 GMT
after watching Billie Holiday I'm more confused than ever. I'd say Day hands down because she's brilliant and the Academy loves these kinds of transformative biopic performances, but then why was she snubbed at SAG?? She should've been a shoo-in there. And the Globes by themselves are not a strong predictor especially given the political backlash during voting.Doesn't feel right predicting Mulligan after watching Billie Holiday but it also doesn't feel right predicting Day after the SAG snub, but then Davis is in a supporting role that's been overshadowed by Boseman all season in a movie that underperformed in the Big 8. Can I abstain?  I guess I'll stick w/ Mulligan, what the hell The Golden Globes are the most accurate predictor of the Best Actress Oscar.
2002 was the last time the Oscar Best Actress winner didn't win the Globe. Before that, it was 1996 (Susan Sarandon) and 1997 (Frances McDormand).
In fact, the record is 31 out of the last 34 years or 91% accuracy. Even if we go back to 1970 (50 years), you have 44 out of 50 accuracy.
On Gold Derby, I have McDormand as my chosen winner. She's won the most Best Actress prizes this season, but I could change my mind.
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Apr 20, 2021 23:30:22 GMT
after watching Billie Holiday I'm more confused than ever. I'd say Day hands down because she's brilliant and the Academy loves these kinds of transformative biopic performances, but then why was she snubbed at SAG?? I thought it was because screeners were sent late. I think that's why she didn't nominated at the SAG or BAFTA. But I think the Globe win grabbed Oscar voters attention and helped her get into the top 5.
George Clooney said he was going to vote for Christie in 2007, but changed his mind, after seeing Cotillard.
Day does deliver a performance that screams Oscar.
The problem for Day is that voters will vote for films that grabbed them. Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, and Ma Rainey are widely seen and something voters really enjoyed. But there's a chance we'll see a "Clooney" happening. The Globes are by far the most accurate predictor. SAGs are 20/26 (if you count Winslet winning for The Reader). The Globes have had 6 misses in 50 years. |
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 21, 2021 5:26:43 GMT
after watching Billie Holiday I'm more confused than ever. I'd say Day hands down because she's brilliant and the Academy loves these kinds of transformative biopic performances, but then why was she snubbed at SAG?? She should've been a shoo-in there. And the Globes by themselves are not a strong predictor especially given the political backlash during voting.The Golden Globes are the most accurate predictor of the Best Actress Oscar. Historically yes but political backlash has never been as big a factor as it was this year, and I wouldn't put much stake in any awards body as a compelling predictor this season in this particular race which is so wide open. How many times have those GG-winning actresses gone on to win the Oscar after being snubbed by SAG and BAFTA? I haven't looked it up but I assume it's incredibly rare. Can't wait to see what happens. |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Apr 21, 2021 10:29:16 GMT
The Golden Globes are the most accurate predictor of the Best Actress Oscar. Historically yes but political backlash has never been as big a factor as it was this year, and I wouldn't put much stake in any awards body as a compelling predictor this season in this particular race which is so wide open. How many times have those GG-winning actresses gone on to win the Oscar after being snubbed by SAG and BAFTA? I haven't looked it up but I assume it's incredibly rare. Can't wait to see what happens. Never. Plus, Day didn't win any other best actress award this season. So I think we're ripe for an exception. |
|
