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Post by Brother Fease on Apr 11, 2021 20:25:15 GMT
Tricky call. This is probably the toughest of the major categories.
To recap:
Andra Day won the Globe.
Carey Mulligan won the Critics Choice and 21 critics circle prizes.
Viola Davis won the SAG and 3 critics circle trophies.
Frances McDormand took home the BAFTA and 23 critics circle awards.
The SAG, Globes, and BAFTA are the two best predictors of the Oscar. Ever since Halle Berry won the Oscar in 2002, no Best Actress winner has won without a Golden Globe win. Hilary Swank in 2000 was the last time a non-SAG or BAFTA winner won the Oscar. 1997's As Good As It Gets was the last time the Best Actor and Best Actress winner went to the same film.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Apr 11, 2021 20:36:34 GMT
Still predicting Day. I don't think BAFTA really changes anything.
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Apr 11, 2021 20:40:01 GMT
I'm going with Viola Davis
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Post by stephen on Apr 11, 2021 20:47:47 GMT
Still backing Mulligan.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Apr 11, 2021 20:48:22 GMT
Davis.
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morton
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Post by morton on Apr 11, 2021 23:44:04 GMT
Still predicting Day. I don't think BAFTA really changes anything. Yeah, I’m still going with Day even though it’s tempting to switch to McDormand because she would be steamrolling if she hadn’t just won her second not too long ago, and even with not sweeping this year, I feel like she can still win if enough voters aren’t thinking “well she’s a producer and would get a third win, so I’ll go with someone else in actress.” Mulligan may have won BAFTA under the previous system, but I don’t know that for sure because many kept saying she was going to win the Globe and then SAG, and then she didn’t. Nomadland feels strong enough that McDormand could have won even under the old system. Obviously Davis isn’t out of it, but I feel like Boseman losing BAFTA hurts her because if MRBB doesn’t have enough British support, I’m not sure it’s going to win two leading Oscars when it underperformed in Oscar nominations. Plus with BAFTA being the last major award show before Oscar voting begins, a lot of voters just tend to have short memories, or at least it seems that way, so now the BAFTA winners have all the attention. I think Boseman still as well as BAFTA winners Youn and Kaluuya, but I think Best Actress is going to be so close that any kind of positive buzz could be enough to push one of the nominees over the finish line first. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 11, 2021 23:47:11 GMT
no clue! betting it all on Mulligan  |
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Post by Brother Fease on Apr 12, 2021 0:46:54 GMT
Still predicting Day. I don't think BAFTA really changes anything. Yeah, I’m still going with Day even though it’s tempting to switch to McDormand because she would be steamrolling if she hadn’t just won her second not too long ago, and even with not sweeping this year, I feel like she can still win if enough voters aren’t thinking “well she’s a producer and would get a third win, so I’ll go with someone else in actress.” Mulligan may have won BAFTA under the previous system, but I don’t know that for sure because many kept saying she was going to win the Globe and then SAG, and then she didn’t. Nomadland feels strong enough that McDormand could have won even under the old system. Obviously Davis isn’t out of it, but I feel like Boseman losing BAFTA hurts her because if MRBB doesn’t have enough British support, I’m not sure it’s going to win two leading Oscars when it underperformed in Oscar nominations. Plus with BAFTA being the last major award show before Oscar voting begins, a lot of voters just tend to have short memories, or at least it seems that way, so now the BAFTA winners have all the attention. I think Boseman still as well as BAFTA winners Youn and Kaluuya, but I think Best Actress is going to be so close that any kind of positive buzz could be enough to push one of the nominees over the finish line first. In the top 8 categories, the Oscars and BAFTAs have lined up at most 6 out of 8.
2019 - 6/8 (Picture, Director) 2018 - 5/8 (Picture, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actress) 2017 - 6/8 (Picture, Original Screenplay) 2016 - 5/8 (Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay) 2015 - 6/8 (Picture, Supporting Actress) 2014 - 4/8 (Picture, Director, both Screenplays)
Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and potentially Actress are the most likely to be different.
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Post by JangoB on Apr 12, 2021 1:14:13 GMT
I love that for once we have no clue about this category. I'm still leaning towards Andra Day, especially with the amount of hustling she's doing, but it's a crapshoot. Mulligan should not be leading the poll by this much though  |
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Post by stabcaesar on Apr 12, 2021 1:52:13 GMT
BAFTA changed nothing so it's still Mulligan.
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Post by TerryMontana on Apr 12, 2021 5:16:22 GMT
It's still Mulligan.
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Post by wilcinema on Apr 12, 2021 7:01:50 GMT
Viola Davis.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2021 9:40:37 GMT
honestly think we're getting a tie here now lol, just dunno between whom, gonna predict two of davis-mulligan-mcdormand (was predicting day but don't feel for now, but honestly she's in the mix im just trying to narrow down lmao), gonna go with mulligan-davis for now. like im definitely predicting a tie no matter what, this seems exactly like the type of race which would give one.
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Apr 12, 2021 13:06:06 GMT
I'm still rooting for Mulligan, but if I had to bet, I'd say Day.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Apr 12, 2021 14:11:17 GMT
At this point I kinda want Kirby to win out of left field just to really blow things up.
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morton
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Post by morton on Apr 12, 2021 14:12:50 GMT
At this point I kinda want Kirby to win out of left field just to really blow things up. I hope she wins for this reason too. |
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Apr 12, 2021 20:51:05 GMT
Found this on AW, and it made me lol:  |
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Post by Brother Fease on Apr 14, 2021 1:25:35 GMT
I keep on going back and forth here. My (over) thinking:
Day
Main Argument - Won the Globe. Plays a "loud" character and a real-life person. The Globes have picked the Best Actress winner for the last 18 seasons. Break out role.
Main Argument Against - No SAG nomination and solo nomination. I don't think we have ever seen a Best Actress winner fail to get a SAG nomination.
Davis
MA - Won the SAG. Plays a "loud" character and a real-life person. SAG winner, Oscar loser Glenn Close for The Wife, Viola Davis for The Help, and Julie Christie for Away From Her were playing "quiet characters". That's not Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.
MAA - Didn't win the Globe. 1997 was the last time Best Actor and Best Actress came from the same film.
Mulligan
MA - Attached to a Best Picture nominee and a popular actress who never won an Oscar before.
MAA - Didn't win the Globe, SAG, or BAFTA. No Best Actress winner has won without winning any of those three.
McDormand
MA - Won the BAFTA. Ever since 2000, the BAFTAs have matched the Oscar-winner 15 out of 20 times. The only true miss was 2012 and Staunton winning over Lawrence. McDormand is also the Critics Circle champ out of the group.
MAA - It's not a loud performance. Best Actress and Best Picture winner haven't matched since 2004 with Million Dollar Baby.
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Apr 16, 2021 11:44:48 GMT
I'm changing my vote to Mulligan.
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Post by cheesecake on Apr 16, 2021 13:47:32 GMT
I love some spice in the race, but why does it have to be THIS year, and in THIS category?! I could see Day taking it, but with the mess at BAFTA and the obvious love the Academy has for Promising Young Woman, I'm leaning towards Mulligan. Definitely preparing myself to be disappointed though. If Davis won, would that be the shortest lead actress performance of all time?  |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2021 13:50:04 GMT
If Davis won, would that be the shortest lead actress performance of all time? Patricia Neal in Hud, right? There is nothing the Academy values more than physical commitment in a biopic - that's why I'm going with Day. No shade, no tea towards Davis' fat suit and lip syncing. |
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Post by cheesecake on Apr 16, 2021 13:51:51 GMT
If Davis won, would that be the shortest lead actress performance of all time? Patricia Neal in Hud, right? There is nothing the Academy values more than physical commitment in a biopic - that's why I'm going with Day. No shade, no tea towards Davis' fat suit and lip syncing. Oh dang, yes. I need to look up Neal's screentime, super curious now. I read her memoir years back and there was a fun section where she didn't even understand why she was lead. |
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Post by wilcinema on Apr 16, 2021 14:07:39 GMT
If Davis won, would that be the shortest lead actress performance of all time? Patricia Neal in Hud, right? There is nothing the Academy values more than physical commitment in a biopic - that's why I'm going with Day. No shade, no tea towards Davis' fat suit and lip syncing. That's Louise Fletcher actually, with just 16.96% of screentime.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 20, 2021 18:59:48 GMT
after watching Billie Holiday I'm more confused than ever. I'd say Day hands down because she's brilliant and the Academy loves these kinds of transformative biopic performances, but then why was she snubbed at SAG?? She should've been a shoo-in there. And the Globes by themselves are not a strong predictor especially given the political backlash during voting. Doesn't feel right predicting Mulligan after watching Billie Holiday but it also doesn't feel right predicting Day after the SAG snub, but then Davis is in a supporting role that's been overshadowed by Boseman all season in a movie that underperformed in the Big 8. Can I abstain? I guess I'll stick w/ Mulligan, what the hell |
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Apr 20, 2021 19:05:46 GMT
Well, I haven't seen McDormand yet, but who should be winning is Day. I'd like to hold out hope that she actually will win, but I sorta think Mulligan will. At the same time though I wouldn't be at all surprised if Davis took it. Sticking with my Mulligan call though.
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