Who wins Best Supporting Actress?

Youn. No question.

All comes down to BAFTA. If anyone other than Bakalova, including obviously Youn herself wins, then Youn has this. If Bakalova wins, it's about 50/50.

If Youn wins BAFTA, she probably wins. But I think Bakalova's still very much in it, and if she takes BAFTA, we have a nailbiter.

BAFTA is irrelevant as a precursor for Best Actress because three of the five nominees didn't make it there and the other two haven't won any major industry awards of late, so even if Kirby or McDormand win there, they don't really have the edge over Day or Davis (or even Mulligan), but instead go into the night on more or less equal footing. Bakalova and Youn, however, are the two frontrunners for Best Supporting Actress and one winning over the other would show passion for that particular bloc of voters.

Ali could win (and let's face, very strong chance she and Bukray win), but if Youn or Bakalova win, they still managed to secure votes from the British voting bloc, many of whom overlap with the Academy. So it can still function as a precursor for this category, but obviously if neither wins, then once again, it's like the Globes and we move on.

I definitely think it's Youn. The Academy obviously loved Minari, and I think that the recent influx of hate crimes aimed particularly at older Asian-American women will only endear Youn's warm grandmother character to voters more.

Bakalova has now lost at Globes, SAG and AACTA. The two industry awards and the biggest non-industry one so far. She did well with critics and exceeded expectations with overall nominations but has stalled at the winning stage. I think comedy bias is coming into play here. Youn with SAG, a much more traditionally baity role and a much stronger film isn’t going to lose to Bakalova based on how things are going so far. Bakalova needed SAG to have a chance. They skew populist, she by far had the biggest hit, the most buzz and still pull it off. Definitely feels like the end of her road to me.

I wouldn't write Bakalova off, but Youn has the momentum, and not just because of SAG. As a bonus, would be a good blow to the Globes to see their choice for Supporting Actress not even making the Oscars (or anywhere else), while someone that didn't made there winning in the Academy and SAG.

I don't think we should ignore BAFTA winners as a clue. Because of the jury system, which doesn't want to predict the Oscar, the nominees sets look funny. But if you look at the non-jury categories, it's still BAFTA. And it'll be BAFTA members who'll vote for the prizes, and all acting categories still have enough Oscar nominees. So if/when one of Youn, Bakalova, Hopkins, Boseman, Kaluuya, McDormand and Kirby win BAFTA, it's because the whole membership wants to rally behind their prefered winners.