Is Mank pretty much locked to rack up the most Oscar noms?

I'm predicting it for all of these minus Seyfried, although I could see it miss screenplay too.

I find it hard to see it missing Screenplay considering it's a screenplay developed by Fincher's dad who passed away. He basically did the movie for his dad. Also Supporting Actress is such a clusterf-ck of a barren wasteland this year that Seyfried is a classic coattails nod, riding on the strength of her movie. 

It's a snub but I doubt big enough for her to miss. Again the category is extremely barren this year, and that usually favors coattails nods, I mean just look at Marina de Tavira who got in with no precursor support and stronger competition. Jacki Weaver in SLP. Yeah Mank is not as beloved as Roma but it's still a top 5 BP contender which will probably get the most nods. 

Trial can max out at 9, at absolute best I see Nomadland getting 7.

Supporting actress is anything but barren. I'm counting nine contenders with only 2 that feel genuinely safe. That there's a general lack of a frontrunner means that anyone could get in and someone like Close or Colman or Seyfried missing would be just as much of a "snub" as Foster or Zengel missing. The race is wide open and Seyfried whose performance is bland and underwritten is going to be particularly vulnerable to that chaos.

On its best day, the 5 you mentioned + Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hair and Sound. So shit, its ceiling is actually 10.

I'm currently predicting Bakalova but I could just see the Academy just not taking the film seriously enough which causes her to miss out. I want her to get in, she's easily the best part of the movie and absolutely hysterical. I love it when comedic, balls to the wall performances get recognized. 

Yeah, unless it totally flops (which I'm not seeing) it will definitely be the one. It has the biggest tech reach.

It's kind of funny how movies can either hit the jackpot bigtime or go with the minimum this year. Chicago 7 can snatch a whole bunch of nods - Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Editing, Sound, Song. And I can also just as easily see it do the bare minimum and getting only Picture, Supporting Actor, Screenplay and Editing.

I don't remember the last time there were so many options of how things were gonna go. The season started off boringly with critics but when it came to the awards that matter for the season, things sure became interesting. Very excited about the announcement.

Trial is not on the Makeup shortlist.

It's likely, but I could also see it missing a lot of those key categories, too. Thing is, there aren't a whole lot of big tech players this year that would hit the above-the-line categories, so it being the big nom-hauler means very little.

I’d say so. That and Trial will likely be the top 2.