Archie
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Eraserhead son or Inland Empire daughter?
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Post by Archie on Mar 12, 2021 13:28:04 GMT
Still holding out hope for Mads.
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Post by stephen on Mar 12, 2021 13:31:39 GMT
I actually think Yeun is safer than Oldman at this point. Minari is surging while Mank is ebbing, and I can see Yeun getting more passion votes than Oldman. I think Ahmed/Boseman/Hopkins/Oldman/Yeun is your five, but I could definitely see either Lindo or Mikkelsen (who always felt more of a threat than we gave him credit for) sneaking a slot in. This category is ripe for a "safe nominee loses a spot to a passion vote," and Oldman would be victim to that more than the others.
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Post by wilcinema on Mar 12, 2021 13:40:25 GMT
The safe prediction is: Boseman, Hopkins, Ahmed, Oldman, Yeun.
I think the big spoiler could be Tahar Rahim, actually. He has a Golden Globe nomination, a BAFTA nomination and his movie was nominated for BAFTA Best Film. Jodie Foster will be nominated in Supporting Actress. He's being massively underestimated.
Mads is a possibility, but he would be a first-time nominee without any precursor, except a BAFTA jury, and with no critics awards. Foreign-language nominations usually happen after months of buzz (eg., Banderas, Cotillard, Montenegro) or for stronger movies (Amour). Bardem for Biutiful was an exception to this but he was an Oscar winner in a movie by a previous Best Director nominee.
Lindo has to overcome too many hurdles, his movie has been so forgotten that even Boseman could drop from Supporting Actor.
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Post by stephen on Mar 12, 2021 13:46:40 GMT
The safe prediction is: Boseman, Hopkins, Ahmed, Oldman, Yeun. I think the big spoiler could be Tahar Rahim, actually. He has a Golden Globe nomination, a BAFTA nomination and his movie was nominated for BAFTA Best Film. Jodie Foster will be nominated in Supporting Actress. He's being massively underestimated. I seriously have no idea what to do with The Mauritanian. Some days I think Foster's safe for a nod (Oscar loves a comeback, especially one from a two-time winner and legend in the industry), other days it feels like just a random Globe thing. But BAFTA sure liked it, and it got into Best Film there with the entire voting body. Rahim shouldn't be underestimated, especially if you are predicting Foster. |
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Post by franklin on Mar 12, 2021 14:09:52 GMT
Yeun, but i would love be Lindo.
Lindo gave the greatest performance of the year.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Mar 12, 2021 14:15:53 GMT
Oldman is not a lock by any means, so the poll is useless. I'm thinking both Yeun (Minari surging) and Lindo (more passionate support than Oldman, who is the definition of filler) get in.
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Post by TerryMontana on Mar 12, 2021 14:16:34 GMT
I'll say Lindo, only because I'd like him to be the fifth one.
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rom
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Post by rom on Mar 12, 2021 14:29:00 GMT
Lindo isn't even an option anymore, Rahim is more likely.
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morton
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Post by morton on Mar 12, 2021 14:32:47 GMT
The safe prediction is: Boseman, Hopkins, Ahmed, Oldman, Yeun. I think the big spoiler could be Tahar Rahim, actually. He has a Golden Globe nomination, a BAFTA nomination and his movie was nominated for BAFTA Best Film. Jodie Foster will be nominated in Supporting Actress. He's being massively underestimated. Mads is a possibility, but he would be a first-time nominee without any precursor, except a BAFTA jury, and with no critics awards. Foreign-language nominations usually happen after months of buzz (eg., Banderas, Cotillard, Montenegro) or for stronger movies ( Amour). Bardem for Biutiful was an exception to this but he was an Oscar winner in a movie by a previous Best Director nominee. Lindo has to overcome too many hurdles, his movie has been so forgotten that even Boseman could drop from Supporting Actor. I’ll probably be wrong, but I have Rahim slightly above Oldman and Yeun. I would like Yeun to get in and stephen makes a lot of sense as to why he’s above Oldman, but Oldman feels like the classic “they won’t have enough passion” thing that seems to happen every year and then that person always makes it in. |
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Post by JangoB on Mar 12, 2021 14:34:16 GMT
Yeun, although I do think that Rahim can sneak in too.
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Post by wilcinema on Mar 12, 2021 16:06:00 GMT
The safe prediction is: Boseman, Hopkins, Ahmed, Oldman, Yeun. I think the big spoiler could be Tahar Rahim, actually. He has a Golden Globe nomination, a BAFTA nomination and his movie was nominated for BAFTA Best Film. Jodie Foster will be nominated in Supporting Actress. He's being massively underestimated. I seriously have no idea what to do with The Mauritanian. Some days I think Foster's safe for a nod (Oscar loves a comeback, especially one from a two-time winner and legend in the industry), other days it feels like just a random Globe thing. But BAFTA sure liked it, and it got into Best Film there with the entire voting body. Rahim shouldn't be underestimated, especially if you are predicting Foster. Yeah, it's the hardest movie to gauge because it got in places where we never think it would but it also has limited support overalll, no guilds, just a few random nominations that have to be signs of passion or they wouldn't make any sense. I'm predicting Foster because Globe win + BAFTA nomination + BAFTA Best Film is too solid a combo for such a respected actress to miss out completely, but it could still happen. And she's also the kind of movie legend that could coattail her co-star in a Lead category with a couple of weak contenders.
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Post by stephen on Mar 12, 2021 16:09:02 GMT
I seriously have no idea what to do with The Mauritanian. Some days I think Foster's safe for a nod (Oscar loves a comeback, especially one from a two-time winner and legend in the industry), other days it feels like just a random Globe thing. But BAFTA sure liked it, and it got into Best Film there with the entire voting body. Rahim shouldn't be underestimated, especially if you are predicting Foster. Yeah, it's the hardest movie to gauge because it got in places where we never think it would but it also has limited support overalll, no guilds, just a few random nominations that have to be signs of passion or they wouldn't make any sense. I'm predicting Foster because Globe win + BAFTA nomination + BAFTA Best Film is too solid a combo for such a respected actress to miss out completely, but it could still happen. And she's also the kind of movie legend that could coattail her co-star in a Lead category with a couple of weak contenders.
She wasn't nominated for BAFTA herself, but I see where you're coming from. |
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Mar 12, 2021 16:10:31 GMT
Neither ! Rahim is taking that 5th spot  |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Mar 12, 2021 20:30:09 GMT
Lindo got no industry traction, and Mikkelsen's BAFTA nomination was bestowed by something like 5 BAFTA members this year. I'm going to say Yeun has the best shot.
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 12, 2021 22:38:36 GMT
Going with the consensus of Yeun, but yeah, Rahim has a pretty decent shot, and definitely a better chance than the other two. Can't believe it's March and people are still predicting Lindo.
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Post by countjohn on Mar 14, 2021 17:12:49 GMT
Lindo missing would be a complete travesty.  |
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Post by Brother Fease on Mar 14, 2021 18:16:41 GMT
Where is Tahar Rahim in the poll? I also wouldn't count out Lakeith Stanfield (Judas) or Kingsley Ben-Adir (Miami).
From a statistical point-of-view, it's a very close call between Yeun and Rahim. Yeun was nominated at the Critics Choice and SAG. Rahim at the Globes and BAFTA. I went with Yeun because he won the North Texas Film Critics award AND attached to the more beloved film. Rahim hasn't won any critics circle awards this year.
Somebody here mentioned that Oldman isn't a secured nominee and I 100% agree. No BAFTA nominee decreased his chances of getting in.
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 14, 2021 22:43:31 GMT
Lindo missing would be a complete travesty. Well you best prepare for it, because sadly it's happening. |
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Mar 15, 2021 1:06:58 GMT
I'm of the opinion that Oldman is on the bubble with these guys as well, perhaps even moreso than Yeun. I'm still shocked Lindo never gained any industry traction, back in the summer everyone considered him to be the favorite to win it seemed. Feels very reminiscent of what happened to both Oprah and Elba in 2013.
I'd be over the moon if Mikkelsen snuck in. Him and Ahmed gave the best performances of the year IMO and seeing them both get nominated would be a thing of beauty.
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Post by dadsburgers on Mar 15, 2021 2:01:55 GMT
Still crossing my fingers for Lindo. There's always a surprise or two, and he would be the best one.
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 15, 2021 2:35:26 GMT
I'm of the opinion that Oldman is on the bubble with these guys as well, perhaps even moreso than Yeun. I'm still shocked Lindo never gained any industry traction, back in the summer everyone considered him to be the favorite to win it seemed. Feels very reminiscent of what happened to both Oprah and Elba in 2013. I'd be over the moon if Mikkelsen snuck in. Him and Ahmed gave the best performances of the year IMO and seeing them both get nominated would be a thing of beauty. That's not how I remember it. From memory, the discussion for the longest time was Boseman v Hopkins, with Lindo no higher than 3rd. |
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Mar 15, 2021 2:54:44 GMT
I'm of the opinion that Oldman is on the bubble with these guys as well, perhaps even moreso than Yeun. I'm still shocked Lindo never gained any industry traction, back in the summer everyone considered him to be the favorite to win it seemed. Feels very reminiscent of what happened to both Oprah and Elba in 2013. I'd be over the moon if Mikkelsen snuck in. Him and Ahmed gave the best performances of the year IMO and seeing them both get nominated would be a thing of beauty. That's not how I remember it. From memory, the discussion for the longest time was Boseman v Hopkins, with Lindo no higher than 3rd. You have to remember at the time Da 5 Bloods premiered, Boseman was still alive and no one even knew of his sickness. I'm not sure he'd be the frontrunner right now if he were still alive, as insensitive as that may sound. Hopkins, sure. At the onset it looked to me like it was gonna him vs. Lindo. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 15, 2021 3:29:28 GMT
That's not how I remember it. From memory, the discussion for the longest time was Boseman v Hopkins, with Lindo no higher than 3rd. You have to remember at the time Da 5 Bloods premiered, Boseman was still alive and no one even knew of his sickness. I'm not sure he'd be the frontrunner right now if he were still alive, as insensitive as that may sound. Hopkins, sure. At the onset it looked to me like it was gonna him vs. Lindo. Maybe I'm just letting my personal predictions get in the way, because I personally never considered Lindo a true threat for the win. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 15, 2021 4:06:52 GMT
torn between Yeun and Rahim, but going with Yeun.
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Post by JangoB on Mar 15, 2021 10:09:31 GMT
After watching The Mauritanian it sure is tempting to get rid of Yeun and just go with Rahim...Yeun's performance is very reserved and quiet while Rahim can snatch a nomination based on that passionate final speech alone.
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