Lead Actress Poll

Thinking Mulligan will take SAG and Bafta and ride it straight to an Oscar win.

I think if Davis wins SAG that can be enough for Day to sneak in. Obviously if Mulligan wins SAG, I expect that she’ll just continue her winning streak, and that for some reason Day’s win was the Globes being unable to resist performances in biopics about musicians or something.

Weirdly I feel if Davis wins SAG, she’s still be no higher that third and behind Mulligan and Day. I feel most of the focus has been on Boseman, and her narrative never really caught on at all. 

I don't know how you can say that when we still have SAG and BAFTA to come.

Ah ok, critics, makes sense. 

Mulligan

I just don't think it's happening. Davis has been largely eclipsed by Boseman's story, and I think that if we were going to see a groundbreaking moment like having two leading actors of color winning at the same time (for the same film, no less), there would be more of a narrative around it (especially as Best Supporting Actor is looking likely to be taken by another actor of color, and Youn is very much still in the race in Supporting Actress). Davis also has to contend with a much smaller role than the other contenders in her category, and she won so very recently on the back of a "it's finally her time" narrative that if they were going to build her up to a record-breaking second acting win for an actress of color, especially her, it would be louder than it is.

Even if she wins SAG, I still would favor Mulligan over her because she ticks all of the boxes this category tends to recognize.

Good point, I keep forgetting she will be winning another trophy for producing (and it would be quite a well-deserved one for an actor/celebrity producer-- I believe she is the one who originally approached Zhao with the idea for the project)

SAG and BAFTA are important, but did Day miss there because her film was underseen/not screened? After the surprise Globe win, it seems like more people are checking out her movie and very few people are walking away unimpressed. Seems like the type of situation where we could sort of write off her snubs and focus more on how she does wherever she is nominated.

Before the Globes I said Davis. After the Globes I said Day. After the CC I say Mulligan. Tomorrow? Only time will tell. 

Another prognosticator elsewhere recently pointed out that for the past few years with repeat ins, the person to do so has swept everything along the way (Zellweger, Ali, McDormand, and Blanchett)and with Davis this hasn’t happened at all. 

Obviously trends can change, but with other repeat winners in split years like Waltz and Streep, both had won the Globe at this point, and there were other factors around them. Waltz was in a category where everyone had won before, and his losing at some places could be due to Django Unchained having screener issues, and Davis doesn’t fall into either category there. With Streep, she had Weinstein behind her who really pumped up the fact that it had been eons since Streep had won an Oscar and was playing a very infamous historical figure. I feel like Netflix really didn’t promote the historical aspect of what Davis’s win would be, and perhaps it was the pandemic, but I haven’t seen Davis campaign that much this year like she did with The Help or Fences. 

ETA: Voted for Day even though it seemed Mulligan was gaining momentum again, but maybe I was actually correct not jumping on the gun like usual although this post is doing exactly that lol and maybe BAFTA won’t mean anything; although I think this gives a lot of room for both Day and Davis to pull ahead because Day needed a split race, and Davis only needs SAG now since Mulligan won’t be able to win anything big before the Oscars. Wild that the Oscar winner probably won’t even be nominated at BAFTA this year. 

Now that both Mulligan and Davis have taken a massive hit I guess it's Day's Oscar to lose.

I would have no problem if Kirby sneaks in and score the most random win though. She is after all the only one who scored all the precursors and didn't recently win a second Oscar.

If Kirby wins this would be the most epic season. I'm all for it.