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Post by dadsburgers on Mar 8, 2021 2:35:42 GMT
Who do you think will win?
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Mar 8, 2021 3:13:45 GMT
Thinking Mulligan will take SAG and Bafta and ride it straight to an Oscar win.
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Post by dadsburgers on Mar 8, 2021 3:33:56 GMT
I think it'll come down to the SAG winner. Carey Mulligan's got the lead for now after tonight.
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morton
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Post by morton on Mar 8, 2021 3:43:38 GMT
I think it'll come down to the SAG winner. Carey Mulligan's got the lead for now after tonight. I think if Davis wins SAG that can be enough for Day to sneak in. Obviously if Mulligan wins SAG, I expect that she’ll just continue her winning streak, and that for some reason Day’s win was the Globes being unable to resist performances in biopics about musicians or something. Weirdly I feel if Davis wins SAG, she’s still be no higher that third and behind Mulligan and Day. I feel most of the focus has been on Boseman, and her narrative never really caught on at all.
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Post by stabcaesar on Mar 8, 2021 3:51:50 GMT
I still think it's Davis. It's too good a chance to pass up awarding the second black winner AND two black leading role winners. Mulligan just didn't sweep enough to beat her. I'd place Day third. SAG and BAFTA noms are too crucial.
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 8, 2021 4:42:31 GMT
I still think it's Davis. It's too good a chance to pass up awarding the second black winner AND two black leading role winners. Mulligan just didn't sweep enough to beat her. I'd place Day third. SAG and BAFTA noms are too crucial. I don't know how you can say that when we still have SAG and BAFTA to come.
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Post by stabcaesar on Mar 8, 2021 4:55:03 GMT
I still think it's Davis. It's too good a chance to pass up awarding the second black winner AND two black leading role winners. Mulligan just didn't sweep enough to beat her. I'd place Day third. SAG and BAFTA noms are too crucial. I don't know how you can say that when we still have SAG and BAFTA to come. I mean the entire season. Mulligan didn't win enough critics awards to beat Davis.
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 8, 2021 5:32:40 GMT
I don't know how you can say that when we still have SAG and BAFTA to come. I mean the entire season. Mulligan didn't win enough critics awards to beat Davis. Ah ok, critics, makes sense.
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Post by TerryMontana on Mar 8, 2021 6:24:31 GMT
Sticking with Davis.
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Post by franklin on Mar 8, 2021 16:03:57 GMT
Mulligan
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Post by dadsburgers on Mar 8, 2021 16:15:44 GMT
So is the consensus that McDormand is out? I feel like she still has an outside chance, being a very well-received lead in the BP frontrunner (previous wins or not), in a race that is this up in the air.
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Post by stephen on Mar 8, 2021 16:19:33 GMT
I still think it's Davis. It's too good a chance to pass up awarding the second black winner AND two black leading role winners. Mulligan just didn't sweep enough to beat her. I'd place Day third. SAG and BAFTA noms are too crucial. I just don't think it's happening. Davis has been largely eclipsed by Boseman's story, and I think that if we were going to see a groundbreaking moment like having two leading actors of color winning at the same time (for the same film, no less), there would be more of a narrative around it (especially as Best Supporting Actor is looking likely to be taken by another actor of color, and Youn is very much still in the race in Supporting Actress). Davis also has to contend with a much smaller role than the other contenders in her category, and she won so very recently on the back of a "it's finally her time" narrative that if they were going to build her up to a record-breaking second acting win for an actress of color, especially her, it would be louder than it is. Even if she wins SAG, I still would favor Mulligan over her because she ticks all of the boxes this category tends to recognize.
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Post by stephen on Mar 8, 2021 16:20:52 GMT
So is the consensus that McDormand is out? I feel like she still has an outside chance, being a very well-received lead in the BP frontrunner (previous wins or not), in a race that is this up in the air. McDormand isn't bothering to campaign at all (hell, she barely campaigned the second time she won, and during the campaign trail she was literally telling voters to recognize other people) and I think people are well aware that she's such a formative behind-the-scenes force that she'll coup her third win as a producer, and they can give the win to someone else.
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Post by dadsburgers on Mar 8, 2021 16:23:15 GMT
So is the consensus that McDormand is out? I feel like she still has an outside chance, being a very well-received lead in the BP frontrunner (previous wins or not), in a race that is this up in the air. McDormand isn't bothering to campaign at all (hell, she barely campaigned the second time she won, and during the campaign trail she was literally telling voters to recognize other people) and I think people are well aware that she's such a formative behind-the-scenes force that she'll coup her third win as a producer, and they can give the win to someone else. Good point, I keep forgetting she will be winning another trophy for producing (and it would be quite a well-deserved one for an actor/celebrity producer-- I believe she is the one who originally approached Zhao with the idea for the project)
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Post by stabcaesar on Mar 8, 2021 18:04:03 GMT
I still think it's Davis. It's too good a chance to pass up awarding the second black winner AND two black leading role winners. Mulligan just didn't sweep enough to beat her. I'd place Day third. SAG and BAFTA noms are too crucial. I just don't think it's happening. Davis has been largely eclipsed by Boseman's story, and I think that if we were going to see a groundbreaking moment like having two leading actors of color winning at the same time (for the same film, no less), there would be more of a narrative around it (especially as Best Supporting Actor is looking likely to be taken by another actor of color, and Youn is very much still in the race in Supporting Actress). Davis also has to contend with a much smaller role than the other contenders in her category, and she won so very recently on the back of a "it's finally her time" narrative that if they were going to build her up to a record-breaking second acting win for an actress of color, especially her, it would be louder than it is. Even if she wins SAG, I still would favor Mulligan over her because she ticks all of the boxes this category tends to recognize. Well I would love to be wrong, but I just don't have faith in the Academy's taste.
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Post by dadsburgers on Mar 8, 2021 18:16:00 GMT
I still think it's Davis. It's too good a chance to pass up awarding the second black winner AND two black leading role winners. Mulligan just didn't sweep enough to beat her. I'd place Day third. SAG and BAFTA noms are too crucial. SAG and BAFTA are important, but did Day miss there because her film was underseen/not screened? After the surprise Globe win, it seems like more people are checking out her movie and very few people are walking away unimpressed. Seems like the type of situation where we could sort of write off her snubs and focus more on how she does wherever she is nominated.
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Post by franklin on Mar 8, 2021 18:23:37 GMT
I still think it's Davis. It's too good a chance to pass up awarding the second black winner AND two black leading role winners. Mulligan just didn't sweep enough to beat her. I'd place Day third. SAG and BAFTA noms are too crucial. SAG and BAFTA are important, but did Day miss there because her film was underseen/not screened? After the surprise Globe win, it seems like more people are checking out her movie and very few people are walking away unimpressed. Seems like the type of situation where we could sort of write off her snubs and focus more on how she does wherever she is nominated. She's not winning, and it's not like that King win.
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JC/MC
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Post by JC/MC on Mar 8, 2021 20:42:54 GMT
Before the Globes I said Davis. After the Globes I said Day. After the CC I say Mulligan. Tomorrow? Only time will tell.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Mar 8, 2021 22:56:02 GMT
SAG and BAFTA are important, but did Day miss there because her film was underseen/not screened? After the surprise Globe win, it seems like more people are checking out her movie and very few people are walking away unimpressed. Seems like the type of situation where we could sort of write off her snubs and focus more on how she does wherever she is nominated. She's not winning, and it's not like that King win. Yes, it's nothing like it. Day didn't even made the shortlist for BAFTA. King was also a respected recent Emmy winner, in a movie by the guy whose previous one won Best Picture and was very acclaimed, while Day is a newcomer in a movie poorly received, that is also only available in a platform which is unavailable for people that don't live in the US. The idea that she was fighting like hell even for a nom and the Globe alone is enough to make her the frontrunner is non-sense.
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morton
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Post by morton on Mar 9, 2021 13:58:36 GMT
I still think it's Davis. It's too good a chance to pass up awarding the second black winner AND two black leading role winners. Mulligan just didn't sweep enough to beat her. I'd place Day third. SAG and BAFTA noms are too crucial. I just don't think it's happening. Davis has been largely eclipsed by Boseman's story, and I think that if we were going to see a groundbreaking moment like having two leading actors of color winning at the same time (for the same film, no less), there would be more of a narrative around it (especially as Best Supporting Actor is looking likely to be taken by another actor of color, and Youn is very much still in the race in Supporting Actress). Davis also has to contend with a much smaller role than the other contenders in her category, and she won so very recently on the back of a "it's finally her time" narrative that if they were going to build her up to a record-breaking second acting win for an actress of color, especially her, it would be louder than it is. Even if she wins SAG, I still would favor Mulligan over her because she ticks all of the boxes this category tends to recognize. Another prognosticator elsewhere recently pointed out that for the past few years with repeat ins, the person to do so has swept everything along the way (Zellweger, Ali, McDormand, and Blanchett)and with Davis this hasn’t happened at all. Obviously trends can change, but with other repeat winners in split years like Waltz and Streep, both had won the Globe at this point, and there were other factors around them. Waltz was in a category where everyone had won before, and his losing at some places could be due to Django Unchained having screener issues, and Davis doesn’t fall into either category there. With Streep, she had Weinstein behind her who really pumped up the fact that it had been eons since Streep had won an Oscar and was playing a very infamous historical figure. I feel like Netflix really didn’t promote the historical aspect of what Davis’s win would be, and perhaps it was the pandemic, but I haven’t seen Davis campaign that much this year like she did with The Help or Fences. ETA: Voted for Day even though it seemed Mulligan was gaining momentum again, but maybe I was actually correct not jumping on the gun like usual although this post is doing exactly that lol and maybe BAFTA won’t mean anything; although I think this gives a lot of room for both Day and Davis to pull ahead because Day needed a split race, and Davis only needs SAG now since Mulligan won’t be able to win anything big before the Oscars. Wild that the Oscar winner probably won’t even be nominated at BAFTA this year.
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Post by jasonjoliepitt on Mar 9, 2021 14:44:48 GMT
Mulligan is so winning that BAFTA! She wasn't even nominated LMAO. Let's just see how those Mulligan fanboys going to whine about the BAFTA rule change.
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Post by stabcaesar on Mar 9, 2021 15:00:48 GMT
Now that both Mulligan and Davis have taken a massive hit I guess it's Day's Oscar to lose.
I would have no problem if Kirby sneaks in and score the most random win though. She is after all the only one who scored all the precursors and didn't recently win a second Oscar.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Mar 9, 2021 15:12:14 GMT
Now that both Mulligan and Davis have taken a massive hit I guess it's Day's Oscar to lose. I would have no problem if Kirby sneaks in and score the most random win though. She is after all the only one who scored all the precursors and didn't recently win a second Oscar. Honestly, I think it’s too early to really say that until we see who wins SAG and BAFTA. Likely it will be a wide open race but to your point Kirby can surge and possibly pull into the lead.
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Post by stabcaesar on Mar 9, 2021 15:17:38 GMT
Now that both Mulligan and Davis have taken a massive hit I guess it's Day's Oscar to lose. I would have no problem if Kirby sneaks in and score the most random win though. She is after all the only one who scored all the precursors and didn't recently win a second Oscar. Honestly, I think it’s too early to really say that until we see who wins SAG and BAFTA. Likely it will be a wide open race but to your point Kirby can surge and possibly pull into the lead. If Kirby wins this would be the most epic season. I'm all for it.
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Post by wilcinema on Mar 9, 2021 18:49:05 GMT
I think Carey wins SAG. If she doesn't, she's done.
I think BAFTA goes to one of the non-Oscar contenders.
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