FEBRUARY PREDICTIONS

Fennell and Oldman also feel pretty safe too.

Depends on how they really love Mank I could see Oldman missing and being the annual nominee for all major awards but missing out the Oscar nom candidate.

I have Fennen as an alternative on 6th.

*most confident
*least confident

best picture
da 5 bloods
the father
mank
ma rainey's black bottom
minari
news of the world
nomadland
one night in miami
promising young woman
the trial of the chicago 7

best director
emerald fennell
david fincher
aaron sorkin
florian zeller
chloe zhao

best actress
viola davis
andra day
vanessa kirby
frances mcdormand
carey mulligan

best actor
riz ahmed
chadwick boseman
anthony hopkins
delroy lindo
gary oldman

best supporting actress
maria bakalova
glenn close
olivia colman
manda seyfried
helena zengel

best supporting actor
chadwick boseman
sacha baron cohen
daniel kaluuya
leslie odom jr.
paul raci

best adapted screenplay
the father
i'm thinking of ending things
one night in miami
ma rainey's black bottom
nomadland

original screenplay
mank
minari
promising young woman
sound of metal
the trial of the chicago 7

(techs / misc)

I hear that but despite the Globe/SAG snubs I can't see how he doesn't get in whether he's 4th or 5th. I'm underpredicting Da 5 Bloods for screenplay and directing but we're at a point where it'll be a snub if it misses BP, and Lindo's perf was by far the most striking aspect of the film. In a different year I'd say he looks weak but honestly, looking over the possible contenders, the only one who stands to unseat him is Yeun and I don't think that's gonna happen. Hanks isn't gonna do it, Ben-Adir isn't gonna do it. Maybe Mikkelsen has an outside chance...

I'm not sure Da 5 Bloods missing BP would be considered a snub, it's getting weaker and weaker by the day. Yes it may be a 'striking performance', but key awards bodies have already shown that they are more than willing to overlook him. Yeun is in a much stronger film than Lindo is, and has already shown he has industry support by getting that very important SAG nom. The critics came to bat for Lindo, but it looks like that won't be enough.

Worked pretty well for Ben Affleck when he won BP just for throwing a fit over not getting nominated for BD. You never know.

In order of likelihood:

BEST PICTURE
1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Mank
4. Promising Young Woman
5. The Father
6. Minari
7. One Night in Miami
8. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
9. News of the World
10. Da 5 Bloods

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
2. David Fincher, Mank
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
5. Florian Zeller, The Father

BEST ACTOR
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Gary Oldman, Mank
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
5. Steven Yeun, Minari

BEST ACTRESS
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
5. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Olivia Colman, The Father
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
5. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Mank
4. Minari
5. Soul

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Nomadland
2. The Father
3. One Night in Miami
4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. News of the World