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Post by madmonsterparty on Jan 27, 2021 23:54:37 GMT
Thank you for voting!!!  |
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Post by stephen on Jan 27, 2021 23:58:43 GMT
It's safe for some of the techs: Cinematography, Production Design (which I am predicting it to win at this stage), Costumes, Score, maybe the Sounds and Editing as well, as both are very flashy and Fincher usually does well with those guilds. With that level of representation (along with an expected Seyfried nod and a strong shot at Original Screenplay), you'd expect it to have enough general support to score into Picture. I'm predicting it as one of the biggest nom-haulers of the year just by virtue of the kind of movie it is. But I also think it's going to vastly underperform on the winning side, if not get shut out entirely.
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Post by quetee on Jan 28, 2021 0:15:09 GMT
I'm thinking Gary misses.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 28, 2021 0:27:03 GMT
I think it's gonna get all the nominations it needs, including Picture, Director and Actor. As far as wins go, I'm pretty sure it's winning Production Design and I can totally see it taking Costumes as well as Cinematography. But nothing beyond tech wins.
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Post by madmonsterparty on Jan 28, 2021 0:54:28 GMT
It's safe for some of the techs: Cinematography, Production Design (which I am predicting it to win at this stage), Costumes, Score, maybe the Sounds and Editing as well, as both are very flashy and Fincher usually does well with those guilds. With that level of representation (along with an expected Seyfried nod and a strong shot at Original Screenplay), you'd expect it to have enough general support to score into Picture. I'm predicting it as one of the biggest nom-haulers of the year just by virtue of the kind of movie it is. But I also think it's going to vastly underperform on the winning side, if not get shut out entirely. Interesting! I know Seyfried should be in good shape (based on what what we've seen so far), and to be honest I've honest I've only started to look into the tech awards this year recently, but what you're saying makes sense from what I'm reading, what you're saying might be on the mark. All I know in a little over a month we'll see how it all turns out nom wise. |
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Post by madmonsterparty on Jan 28, 2021 0:57:17 GMT
I'm thinking Gary misses. I think you might be right. What I'm thinking is he either barely gets in or barely misses. Things could change of course, but that's how I'm feeling right now. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 28, 2021 0:58:28 GMT
I still think Seyfried will win, but outside of that, just a tech win or two.
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Post by madmonsterparty on Jan 28, 2021 1:00:48 GMT
I think it's gonna get all the nominations it needs, including Picture, Director and Actor. As far as wins go, I'm pretty sure it's winning Production Design and I can totally see it taking Costumes as well as Cinematography. But nothing beyond tech wins. As of right now, I'm thinking Fincher gets in for Best Director as well. It will be interesting how Best Director plays out this year, I know that for sure! |
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Post by madmonsterparty on Jan 28, 2021 1:03:17 GMT
I still think Seyfried will win, but outside of that, just a tech win or two. For a win I think Seyfried is probably the best (if not only) real chance for a major category, as of right now |
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Post by quetee on Jan 28, 2021 1:04:29 GMT
I still think Seyfried will win, but outside of that, just a tech win or two. I think My Cousin Vinny: Electric Boogaloo is in full effect. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 28, 2021 4:06:18 GMT
I think Seyfried probably wins, but she should be thanking her lucky stars that the competition in her category is so threadbare ( the most acclaimed work is full of little known actresses in mostly indie type films), that Close's movie tanked badly and that Colman has no momentum. Perfect storm for Seyfried.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 28, 2021 6:37:15 GMT
BP nod. Nothing better than that.
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Post by franklin on Jan 28, 2021 10:37:22 GMT
Oldman may miss, which is insane because it's a superior performance to Churchill in Darkest Hour.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 28, 2021 11:24:47 GMT
Yeah, I wrote that it won't win anything beyond techs but I guess Seyfried can totally make it too with her category being this weird.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 28, 2021 15:14:15 GMT
I think Seyfried probably wins, but she should be thanking her lucky stars that the competition in her category is so threadbare ( the most acclaimed work is full of little known actresses in mostly indie type films), that Close's movie tanked badly and that Colman has no momentum. Perfect storm for Seyfried. More of a reason Davis should have gone supporting for MRBB. I understand she wants that lead win and has a great shot at winning it, buts it’s category fraud IMO (not that it’s ever mattered) and the path in supporting would be an easy steamroll for her. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 28, 2021 15:17:48 GMT
Safe for techs and Seyfried, might even win a couple, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't get a BP nom at all, and it will be a cold day in hell before it wins. Don't see much of a chance for Oldman or Fincher.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 28, 2021 15:35:50 GMT
I think Seyfried probably wins, but she should be thanking her lucky stars that the competition in her category is so threadbare ( the most acclaimed work is full of little known actresses in mostly indie type films), that Close's movie tanked badly and that Colman has no momentum. Perfect storm for Seyfried. More of a reason Davis should have gone supporting for MRBB. I understand she wants that lead win and has a great shot at winning it, buts it’s category fraud IMO (not that it’s ever mattered) and the path in supporting would be an easy steamroll for her. already has an Oscar and every award going in every medium (TV, stage). I imagine winning Best Actress is much more important to her symbolically, because it's something so rare and denied to black actresses. Getting another supporting actress Oscar would arguably make it much harder to ever win in lead (as three Oscars still are not commonplace for actors). So I think she'd prefer to take a 60% chance to win in lead, than get a guaranteed supporting Oscar. If you ever listen to Davis talk about the inequities of the industry for women of color, it's very clear how important this kind of thing is to her. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 28, 2021 16:25:12 GMT
More of a reason Davis should have gone supporting for MRBB. I understand she wants that lead win and has a great shot at winning it, buts it’s category fraud IMO (not that it’s ever mattered) and the path in supporting would be an easy steamroll for her. already has an Oscar and every award going in every medium (TV, stage). I imagine winning Best Actress is much more important to her symbolically, because it's something so rare and denied to black actresses. Getting another supporting actress Oscar would arguably make it much harder to ever win in lead (as three Oscars still are not commonplace for actors). So I think she'd prefer to take a 60% chance to win in lead, than get a guaranteed supporting Oscar. If you ever listen to Davis talk about the inequities of the industry for women of color, it's very clear how important this kind of thing is to her. Very fair assessment. |
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jan 28, 2021 18:24:05 GMT
Honestly I can't disagree with the general opinion. I think it's on pretty weak standing ground, feels like one of those movies that almost immediately peaked as soon as it was released. Beyond Seyfried and some techs, I can't see it getting a whole lot of love from the academy.
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Jan 28, 2021 19:58:13 GMT
Agree with others on here, will get a Best Picture nom (AMPAS are suckers for films about Hollywood/making films) and all the tech noms but other than Seyfried and maybe Production Design/Cinematography won't win anything else. The buzz on this came and went with its release on Netflix and the press junket Fincher/Oldman/Seyfried were on with Good Morning America, etc. On its release and the hype around it being Fincher's first film in over 6 years, I was thinking it was going to have a big run at the Oscars, now that other films are really gaining momentum it might be a lower-tier BP nom at this point and I'm not sure Oldman is going to make the final 5 when everyone including me thought he was going to be a shoo-in when it was announced him and Fincher were collaborating for the first time on this. Weird to see Netlfix's #1 priority when Oscar season started began last September/October sort of be moved to the back-burner now because its buzz has cooled considerably.
Perhaps that is the ultimate parable...of the organ grinders' monkey.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 28, 2021 20:16:37 GMT
. On its release and the hype around it being Fincher's first film in over 6 years, I was thinking it was going to have a big run at the Oscars, now that other films are really gaining momentum it might be a lower-tier BP nom at this point and I'm not sure Oldman is going to make the final 5 when everyone including me thought he was going to be a shoo-in when it was announced him and Fincher were collaborating for the first time on this. Weird to see Netlfix's #1 priority when Oscar season started began last September/October sort of be moved to the back-burner now because its buzz has cooled considerably. The problem is, like I said since it's release, that the kind of people that would be the biggest audience for this (older voters and people who love the Golden Age of Hollywood) are exactly the same people that would know and be offended by the story it's trying to spin- of Orson Welles being a credit-stealing, self-important hack, and Mank being the real genius behind Citizen Kane- because they know it's bullshit based on a book that has been discredited for decades. It might fly with someone who's a casual fan, but those are the less likely to care about a movie like this in the first place. |
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Jan 28, 2021 20:24:28 GMT
. On its release and the hype around it being Fincher's first film in over 6 years, I was thinking it was going to have a big run at the Oscars, now that other films are really gaining momentum it might be a lower-tier BP nom at this point and I'm not sure Oldman is going to make the final 5 when everyone including me thought he was going to be a shoo-in when it was announced him and Fincher were collaborating for the first time on this. Weird to see Netlfix's #1 priority when Oscar season started began last September/October sort of be moved to the back-burner now because its buzz has cooled considerably. The problem is, like I said since it's release, that the kind of people that would be the biggest audience for this (older voters and people who love the Golden Age of Hollywood) are exactly the same people that would know and be offended by the story it's trying to spin- of Orson Welles being a credit-stealing, self-important hack, and Mank being the real genius behind Citizen Kane- because they know it's bullshit based on a book that has been discredited for decades. It might fly with someone who's a casual fan, but those are the less likely to care about a movie like this in the first place. Agreed, older voters and cinephiles who loved and know about the history and the films of that era of Hollywood probably didn't appreciate Fincher taking those shots at Welles as well while trying to defend the accuracy of the script his father wrote during the press junket for the films' release. Didn't do him any favors and I'm someone who loves Fincher and he is one of my favorite filmmakers working right now..but yeah should've left that alone..especially dealing with historians who study and know about that period. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 28, 2021 20:40:02 GMT
Impossible to tell
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