JANUARY PREDICTIONS

Picture
Da 5 Bloods
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Director
Aaron Sorkin- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao- Nomadland
David Fincher- Mank
Florian Zeller- The Father
Spike Lee- Da 5 Bloods

Lead Actor
Anthony Hopkins- The Father
Chadwick Boseman- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Delroy Lindo- Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman- Mank
Riz Ahmed- Sound of Metal

Lead Actress
Carey Mulligan- Promising Young Woman
Frances McDormand- Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby- Pieces of a Woman
Viola Davis- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Zendaya- Malcolm and Marie

Supporting Actor
Chadwick Boseman- Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya- Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr.- One Night in Miami
Paul Raci- Sound of Metal
Sacha Baron Cohen- The Trial of the Chicago 7

Supporting Actress
Amanda Seyfried- Mank
Ellen Burstyn- Pieces of a Woman
Maria Bakalova- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Olivia Colman- The Father
Youn Yuh-jung- Minari

Best Picture:
Nomadland
Mank
Promising Young Woman
News of the World
The Father
Soul
Minari
Trial of the Chicago 7
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottome

Best Director:
Chloe Zhao - Nomadland
David Fincher - Mank
Florian Zellar - The Father
Paul Greengrass - News of the World
Regina King - One Night in Miami

Best Actor:
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins - The Father
Gary Oldman - Mank
Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods

Alt: Steven Yuen - Minari

Best Actress:
Francis McDormand - Nomadland
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
Zendaya - Malcom and Marie

Alt: Sidney Flanigan - Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Supporting Actor:
Leslie Odom Jr - One Night in Miami
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Sasha Baron Cohen - Trial of the Chicago 7
Bill Murray - On the Rocks
Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

Alt: Frank Langella - Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actress:
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Olivia Colman - The Father
Ellen Burstyn - Pieces of a Woman
Youn Yuh-Jung - Minari
Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Alt: Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

I have the exact same 

Yesterday I was kinda shocked to find out that the Globes and SAG nominations were coming on so soon! I thought they'd be much later with this crazy season. Time to make some pre-GG-SAG Oscar predictions for the acting categories.
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LEADING ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank

- Seems like these five have been set for a while now, doesn't it? Not expecting any big surprises thus far.
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LEADING ACTRESS
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

- Not really convinced about Day but the others options are a bit dubious too. Andra Day has the most Oscary role out of those but that film remains a mystery. I don't really believe in Sophia Loren's chances that much but at the same time I realize that a legend should not be underestimated. And I'm not sure how AMPAS will react to Malcolm & Marie which seems to be made more for twitter discussions...it's all a bit of a clustercuss!
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SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

- Normally I wouldn't predict Paul Raci here because he just screams 'critics support without an Oscar nod', but there aren't too many options this year and the film seems to be doing well so I think he ultimately can happen. But I think it can just as well be Glynn Turman for Ma Rainey. Or someone like Frank Langella for Chicago 7 tbh.
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SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Olivia Colman, The Father
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

- An even bigger case of 'critics support without an Oscar nod' seems to be Maria Bakalova to me. Lord knows they're pushing her hard but I have a hard time seeing the AMPAS folks nominating her. In a battle between a critics-supported comedic performance vs. a super traditional Oscar role in a badly reviewed film, I'm going for the latter. I still think they won't resist nominating Close. Obviously Youn You-jung is no lock either. Maybe she's the snubbed one and Bakalova gets in alongside Close! AMPAS rarely goes for raunchy comedies like this in acting but Melissa McCarthy did manage to get a nomination so that makes me think that Bakalova can too. It helps that Borat 2 is very mild and very much on the proper political side for Hollywood to rally behind it. It's a message movie really. So Bakalova does have a good shot. But I'm not quite there so far as far as predictions go.