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Post by stephen on Jan 10, 2021 21:22:04 GMT
In progress.
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sirchuck23
Based
Bad news dawg...you don't mind if I have some of your 300 dollar a glass shit there would ya?
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Post by sirchuck23 on Jan 10, 2021 22:02:39 GMT
No Fincher for Director but gets in for original screenplay, editing, cinematography..interesting. Lee gets in for Director with no original screenplay or best film. Think it’s possible Lee can get in for Best Director in the end even if Da 5 Bloods isn’t nominated for Best Picture. Also wonder if that’s our Best Actor Oscar lineup right there.
Also, the hits keep on coming for WW 84 don’t they.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 10, 2021 22:40:49 GMT
Replace Burnham with Boseman and that is definitely the Oscar Supp. Actor line-up I'm predicting at this point. People are underestimating how well ONE NIGHT is gonna play. Hell, at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if King gets in directing before Sorkin or Fincher.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 10, 2021 22:45:28 GMT
No Fincher for Director but gets in for original screenplay, editing, cinematography..interesting. Lee gets in for Director with no original screenplay or best film. Think it’s possible Lee can get in for Best Director in the end even if Da 5 Bloods isn’t nominated for Best Picture. Also wonder if that’s our Best Actor Oscar lineup right there. Also, the hits keep on coming for WW 84 don’t they. Replace Oldman with Yeun, and that is the Oscar Best Actor line-up I'm predicting at this point. Also, if there are 8/9 nominees this year as usual, then DA 5 BLOODS is a virtual LOCK for a BP nom. No way it misses!
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sirchuck23
Based
Bad news dawg...you don't mind if I have some of your 300 dollar a glass shit there would ya?
Posts: 2,885
Likes: 5,052
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Post by sirchuck23 on Jan 10, 2021 22:51:45 GMT
No Fincher for Director but gets in for original screenplay, editing, cinematography..interesting. Lee gets in for Director with no original screenplay or best film. Think it’s possible Lee can get in for Best Director in the end even if Da 5 Bloods isn’t nominated for Best Picture. Also wonder if that’s our Best Actor Oscar lineup right there. Also, the hits keep on coming for WW 84 don’t they. Replace Oldman with Yeun, and that is the Oscar Best Actor line-up I'm predicting at this point. Also, if there are 8/9 nominees this year as usual, then DA 5 BLOODS is a virtual LOCK for a BP nom. No way it misses! Agreed, I’m predicting the Da 5 Bloods myself for a BP nom, just positing that since he’s a veteran director and along with Fincher are probably the most “showiest” directing jobs of 2020 out of the Oscar contenders, Lee could potentially get in Director without a BP nom for Da 5 Bloods. But it’s probably a moot point since I think D5B will make the final 9.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 11, 2021 1:48:26 GMT
Replace Burnham with Boseman and that is definitely the Oscar Supp. Actor line-up I'm predicting at this point. People are underestimating how well ONE NIGHT is gonna play. Hell, at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if King gets in directing before Sorkin or Fincher. So you don't think Kaluuya will get nominated??
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 11, 2021 1:49:37 GMT
That could very well be the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress lineups that we end up with.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 11, 2021 1:50:54 GMT
Replace Burnham with Boseman and that is definitely the Oscar Supp. Actor line-up I'm predicting at this point. People are underestimating how well ONE NIGHT is gonna play. Hell, at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if King gets in directing before Sorkin or Fincher. Wait, so you have Sorkin and Fincher at 4 and 5??? Who's in your Top 3 besides Zhao?
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 11, 2021 4:10:35 GMT
Replace Burnham with Boseman and that is definitely the Oscar Supp. Actor line-up I'm predicting at this point. People are underestimating how well ONE NIGHT is gonna play. Hell, at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if King gets in directing before Sorkin or Fincher. Wait, so you have Sorkin and Fincher at 4 and 5??? Who's in your Top 3 besides Zhao? That's not exactly what I meant. What I meant was I could see a scenario where King gets in over one of those 2 IF her film overperforms. As for who do I have in Top 3: Honestly, I just have Zhao at #1 and Spike at #2. Sorkin is probably #3, but I think Chung is right behind him at #4 and ahead of Fincher (who is as vulnerable as everything else MANK except Seyfried). I definitely think King could sneak in the last slot, but we'll have to wait and see.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 11, 2021 4:26:22 GMT
Wait, so you have Sorkin and Fincher at 4 and 5??? Who's in your Top 3 besides Zhao? That's not exactly what I meant. What I meant was I could see a scenario where King gets in over one of those 2 IF her film overperforms. As for who do I have in Top 3: Honestly, I just have Zhao at #1 and Spike at #2. Sorkin is probably #3, but I think Chung is right behind him at #4 and ahead of Fincher (who is as vulnerable as everything else MANK except Seyfried). I definitely think King could sneak in the last slot, but we'll have to wait and see. Very interesting. Right now I'm going with: Fincher Lee Sorkin Zeller Zhao
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 11, 2021 4:35:23 GMT
That's not exactly what I meant. What I meant was I could see a scenario where King gets in over one of those 2 IF her film overperforms. As for who do I have in Top 3: Honestly, I just have Zhao at #1 and Spike at #2. Sorkin is probably #3, but I think Chung is right behind him at #4 and ahead of Fincher (who is as vulnerable as everything else MANK except Seyfried). I definitely think King could sneak in the last slot, but we'll have to wait and see. Very interesting. Right now I'm going with: Fincher Lee Sorkin Zeller Zhao Oh that's right! Totally forgot about Zeller, but based on what I've heard of how the story in THE FATHER is told, it definitely sounds like a director's showcase. Replace Fincher with Chung and my line-up is the same as yours.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 11, 2021 6:30:49 GMT
Replace Burnham with Boseman and that is definitely the Oscar Supp. Actor line-up I'm predicting at this point. People are underestimating how well ONE NIGHT is gonna play. Hell, at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if King gets in directing before Sorkin or Fincher. So you don't think Kaluuya will get nominated?? Maybe. I think the 5th spot is between him and Odom. I'm going with Odom at the moment, because I think his film will definitely play more widely than JUDAS, but it could go either way. I do think SBC/Boseman/Murray are pretty safe (expect them to make most of the industry precursors), and Raci will get enough passion #1 votes that I have him closely behind at #4. Also, even though I have him fighting for the 5th spot, if Kaluuya makes it instead of Odom, then he'll be a contender for the win, whereas I think Odom has ZERO chance. If Kaluuya flops, though, I think it's the good old "Overdue/Make-up" time for National Treasure Murray. I don't think a pity Supp. Actor win for Boseman would be well received at all. He'll either win lead or nothing. And at this point, I think he's considerably ahead of the pack as the Lead Actor frontrunner.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 11, 2021 12:30:50 GMT
So you don't think Kaluuya will get nominated?? Maybe. I think the 5th spot is between him and Odom. I'm going with Odom at the moment, because I think his film will definitely play more widely than JUDAS, but it could go either way. I do think SBC/Boseman/Murray are pretty safe (expect them to make most of the industry precursors), and Raci will get enough passion #1 votes that I have him closely behind at #4. Also, even though I have him fighting for the 5th spot, if Kaluuya makes it instead of Odom, then he'll be a contender for the win, whereas I think Odom has ZERO chance. If Kaluuya flops, though, I think it's the good old "Overdue/Make-up" time for National Treasure Murray. I don't think a pity Supp. Actor win for Boseman would be well received at all. He'll either win lead or nothing. And at this point, I think he's considerably ahead of the pack as the Lead Actor frontrunner. I'm still not even remotely feeling Murray tbh. Boseman Cohen Kaluuya Odom Jr. Raci
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 11, 2021 12:43:56 GMT
Maybe. I think the 5th spot is between him and Odom. I'm going with Odom at the moment, because I think his film will definitely play more widely than JUDAS, but it could go either way. I do think SBC/Boseman/Murray are pretty safe (expect them to make most of the industry precursors), and Raci will get enough passion #1 votes that I have him closely behind at #4. Also, even though I have him fighting for the 5th spot, if Kaluuya makes it instead of Odom, then he'll be a contender for the win, whereas I think Odom has ZERO chance. If Kaluuya flops, though, I think it's the good old "Overdue/Make-up" time for National Treasure Murray. I don't think a pity Supp. Actor win for Boseman would be well received at all. He'll either win lead or nothing. And at this point, I think he's considerably ahead of the pack as the Lead Actor frontrunner. I'm still not even remotely feeling Murray tbh. Boseman Cohen Kaluuya Odom Jr. Raci Murray has shown up in as many precursor noms as Cohen, Boseman, and Raci, so there's that too.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 11, 2021 13:34:01 GMT
I'm still not even remotely feeling Murray tbh. Boseman Cohen Kaluuya Odom Jr. Raci Murray has shown up in as many precursor noms as Cohen, Boseman, and Raci, so there's that too. While yes, he has gotten a decent amount of noms so far (not as many as those other guys I don't think though), he hasn't gotten a single win. Plus On the Rocks is such a 'no one cares' afterthought and we still have months to go, which is a worrying sign for Murray. Once people actually start seeing Judas and the Black Messiah, Kaluuya is going to show up everywhere and that's one less spot for Murray to try and take. Slight side note, not sure why you're not higher on Odom's chances considering how high you are on One Night in Miami as a whole.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 11, 2021 14:43:31 GMT
Murray has shown up in as many precursor noms as Cohen, Boseman, and Raci, so there's that too. While yes, he has gotten a decent amount of noms so far (not as many as those other guys I don't think though), he hasn't gotten a single win. Plus On the Rocks is such a 'no one cares' afterthought and we still have months to go, which is a worrying sign for Murray. Once people actually start seeing Judas and the Black Messiah, Kaluuya is going to show up everywhere and that's one less spot for Murray to try and take. Slight side note, not sure why you're not higher on Odom's chances considering how high you are on One Night in Miami as a whole. I definitely wouldn't say I'm "high" on MIAMI's chances, I just think it has the POTENTIAL to play big, and that could help King. Then again, I felt the same way about Gerwig if LITTLE WOMEN overperformed, and it did yet she still missed. So we'll see, but since you reminded me of THE FATHER, it's not like I'm predicting her at this point to be a Top 5 contender. As for Odom? I'm not high on his chances for winning, cuz it's just not at all the kind of role that wins (Kaluuya is, though), but he's very likely for a nom. I just don't believe both he AND Kaluuya will make it. One or the other. And I definitely think Odom is behind Murray. I also think you're seriously underestimating the "overdue" factor with Murray, as well as the fact that the MANY people who feel he was robbed for LOST IN TRANSLATION might think there's poetic justice in him potentially getting it for another Sofia Coppola film. Imho, that'll likely be enough for at least a nom. Btw, has anyone seen JUDAS yet?? I'm curious cuz you're very confident of his chances and I'm wondering if it's just the role (which I would also understand) or have there been enough reviews.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 11, 2021 15:24:50 GMT
While yes, he has gotten a decent amount of noms so far (not as many as those other guys I don't think though), he hasn't gotten a single win. Plus On the Rocks is such a 'no one cares' afterthought and we still have months to go, which is a worrying sign for Murray. Once people actually start seeing Judas and the Black Messiah, Kaluuya is going to show up everywhere and that's one less spot for Murray to try and take. Slight side note, not sure why you're not higher on Odom's chances considering how high you are on One Night in Miami as a whole. I definitely wouldn't say I'm "high" on MIAMI's chances, I just think it has the POTENTIAL to play big, and that could help King. Then again, I felt the same way about Gerwig if LITTLE WOMEN overperformed, and it did yet she still missed. So we'll see, but since you reminded me of THE FATHER, it's not like I'm predicting her at this point to be a Top 5 contender. As for Odom? I'm not high on his chances for winning, cuz it's just not at all the kind of role that wins (Kaluuya is, though), but he's very likely for a nom. I just don't believe both he AND Kaluuya will make it. One or the other. And I definitely think Odom is behind Murray. I also think you're seriously underestimating the "overdue" factor with Murray, as well as the fact that the MANY people who feel he was robbed for LOST IN TRANSLATION might think there's poetic justice in him potentially getting it for another Sofia Coppola film. Imho, that'll likely be enough for at least a nom. Btw, has anyone seen JUDAS yet?? I'm curious cuz you're very confident of his chances and I'm wondering if it's just the role (which I would also understand) or have there been enough reviews. In relation to the Lost in Translation point, I truly don't think Academy members are thinking that hard when voting. The film is still very under seen and will continue to diminish in the mids of voters even further as time goes on. 'Overdue' narratives aren't as big as people make them out to be, we saw that just a couple of years ago with Close. The fact of the matter is, he would be a sole nominee in a film that has absolutely no buzz. Would be happy if he made it, but I'm still not seeing it. I think a few people have seen Judas, but I'm more just talking in regards to the role itself.
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2021 15:29:27 GMT
In relation to the Lost in Translation point, I truly don't think Academy members are thinking that hard when voting. The film is still very under seen and will continue to diminish in the mids of voters even further as time goes on. 'Overdue' narratives aren't as big as people make them out to be, we saw that just a couple of years ago with Close. The fact of the matter is, he would be a sole nominee in a film that has absolutely no buzz. Would be happy if he made it, but I'm still not seeing it. I think a few people have seen Judas, but I'm more just talking in regards to the role itself. Not to mention that Murray is a notoriously prickly outsider -- as much as people respect him, he's just not part of the Hollywood machine, and he's not one for campaigning and schmoozing. For a film with such a small profile (regardless of its director pedigree) and unproven distributor, and with an early release to boot, any actor would have an uphill climb.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 11, 2021 16:54:29 GMT
I wonder how campaigns will be this year, considering the situation.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 11, 2021 17:02:24 GMT
I definitely wouldn't say I'm "high" on MIAMI's chances, I just think it has the POTENTIAL to play big, and that could help King. Then again, I felt the same way about Gerwig if LITTLE WOMEN overperformed, and it did yet she still missed. So we'll see, but since you reminded me of THE FATHER, it's not like I'm predicting her at this point to be a Top 5 contender. As for Odom? I'm not high on his chances for winning, cuz it's just not at all the kind of role that wins (Kaluuya is, though), but he's very likely for a nom. I just don't believe both he AND Kaluuya will make it. One or the other. And I definitely think Odom is behind Murray. I also think you're seriously underestimating the "overdue" factor with Murray, as well as the fact that the MANY people who feel he was robbed for LOST IN TRANSLATION might think there's poetic justice in him potentially getting it for another Sofia Coppola film. Imho, that'll likely be enough for at least a nom. Btw, has anyone seen JUDAS yet?? I'm curious cuz you're very confident of his chances and I'm wondering if it's just the role (which I would also understand) or have there been enough reviews. In relation to the Lost in Translation point, I truly don't think Academy members are thinking that hard when voting. The film is still very under seen and will continue to diminish in the mids of voters even further as time goes on. 'Overdue' narratives aren't as big as people make them out to be, we saw that just a couple of years ago with Close. The fact of the matter is, he would be a sole nominee in a film that has absolutely no buzz. Would be happy if he made it, but I'm still not seeing it. I think a few people have seen Judas, but I'm more just talking in regards to the role itself. If they put ON THE ROCKS in one of the big streaming services while the voting is still ongoing, I think that'll definitely help his chances for both a nom and a win. I feel like the closest thing to a potential frontrunner at this point is Kaaluya, but so much is unknown about the performance and how the film will play. IF he/it has an underwhelming reception, I don't think there's any other performance beside Murray that could get a bulk of the INDUSTRY awards. Boseman? Nah, it'll feel like a pity/2nd place prize, and he's a frontrunner for lead now anyway. Odom? Like I said, not the kind of role. Raci? Far too unknown (the "Mark Rylance" wins are quite rare). SBC? Love him, but that performance (while wonderful) is just classic "nomination but not win" bait. We shall see.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 11, 2021 17:34:56 GMT
Murray is definitely the one guy who fits the bill (no pun intended) of veteran actor who eventually picks up a win. He may be recalcitrant about campaigning or shaking hands, but he is well known and he also is a previous nominee (with a popular performance). Much boils down to how his performance is received, regardless of how successful the movie will be.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 11, 2021 17:49:12 GMT
has Rylance been nominated for Chicago 7 even once yet?
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2021 17:51:49 GMT
has Rylance been nominated for Chicago 7 even once yet? Columbus did, at least.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 12, 2021 1:34:16 GMT
In relation to the Lost in Translation point, I truly don't think Academy members are thinking that hard when voting. The film is still very under seen and will continue to diminish in the mids of voters even further as time goes on. 'Overdue' narratives aren't as big as people make them out to be, we saw that just a couple of years ago with Close. The fact of the matter is, he would be a sole nominee in a film that has absolutely no buzz. Would be happy if he made it, but I'm still not seeing it. I think a few people have seen Judas, but I'm more just talking in regards to the role itself. If they put ON THE ROCKS in one of the big streaming services while the voting is still ongoing, I think that'll definitely help his chances for both a nom and a win. I feel like the closest thing to a potential frontrunner at this point is Kaaluya, but so much is unknown about the performance and how the film will play. IF he/it has an underwhelming reception, I don't think there's any other performance beside Murray that could get a bulk of the INDUSTRY awards. Boseman? Nah, it'll feel like a pity/2nd place prize, and he's a frontrunner for lead now anyway. Odom? Like I said, not the kind of role. Raci? Far too unknown (the "Mark Rylance" wins are quite rare). SBC? Love him, but that performance (while wonderful) is just classic "nomination but not win" bait. We shall see. Yeah we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. We shall see!
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Post by stephen on Jan 17, 2021 23:53:30 GMT
The winners:
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