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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 8, 2020 0:57:08 GMT
I think George C Wolfe has to be a strong contender for a directing nod. His movie is at 87 on Metacritic with 28 reviews. That is Best Director nod level. He may not have been some big time film director before Ma Rainy's Black Bottom, but he is one of the most esteemed Broadway directors living. Not sure why you think he wouldn't be in play for a nomination. Right now, Wolfe is in my predicted 5 for Best Director. Even if they nod Wolfe, they can still give Best Director to Zhao and BP to Ma Rainy . Best Picture and Director splits happen all the time. Wolfe is in the mix, but the complaints about Ma Rainey's Black Bottom are almost exclusively down to the staginess of the project. Which isn't exactly a death knell per se, but when it comes to theater directors adapting plays this year, Florian Zeller's gotten much more rapturous attention for circumventing the theatricality of his play and making it cinematic (on a side-note, The Father cannot be underestimated as a contender). Wolfe feels like he's in the 6-10 range at the moment, with room to rise. I'd say at the moment, Zhao/Fincher/Zeller (to me) feel like firm likelihoods, then you've got the likes of Greengrass, both Kings (Regina and Shaka) for different projects, and Lee Isaac Chung in there as well. This category is very much in flux, and most of these (for the projects that have been screened) have gotten better notices for their individual direction than Wolfe has. But if Wolfe does crack the Top 5, and if the film can coup some strong tech nods (Editing, Cinematography), then I'd feel much more confident in its Picture chances. The "complaints" though feel exaggerated or minor at this point with a 99% on RT and 87 on Metacritic. That is universal acclaim. Almost every single thing ever adapted from stage at this point will have some critics saying it feels "stagey". It will almost never not be a criticism. Some critics said it for Chicago. Still won BP. It's a concern that should be noted, but it feels like it could also be over-egged considering it's overall level of acclaim. Even though I'm currently predicting Wolfe, I do think he could miss. Not sure I'd have Zeller ahead of him though. And I honestly think Fincher (whom I actually thought most likely to win Director at one stage) could be an almost predictable "shock snub". His coming for Welles like he has, has not been a good look for him ( Paul Schrader's attack on Mank may be how more of his peers feel). And his movie is far from undeniable at this stage. |
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Post by dadsburgers on Dec 8, 2020 1:24:56 GMT
I just can't picture Ma Rainey sweeping Picture, Actor, and Actress unless it's incredible and takes its source material to new heights.
I'm going to continue to quietly put my money on One Night in Miami. Not a sure bet at all, but it seems like it might be checking all the right boxes at this point.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 8, 2020 1:47:46 GMT
Sticking with Nomadland, but keeping an eye on Judas and the Black Messiah.
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Post by pendragon on Dec 8, 2020 2:13:22 GMT
Nomadland still looks like the most realistic choice. I think voters will be content awarding Ma Rainey's for acting. They like to spread the wealth with the top prizes and films almost never win both Picture and a lead acting award these days (The Artist was the last to get both).
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 8, 2020 2:19:38 GMT
Hmm...still not feeling Nomadland and pivoting again from my previous choices so Trial of the Chicago 7 it is.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 8, 2020 2:47:23 GMT
I still think it's Nomadland's to lose. Mank looks like it's mainly going to score techs and could pull off a win or two above the line . . . but I think there's a very real chance that it becomes The Year of Chloe Zhao, and they can reward McDormand and Zhao with a prize in Best Picture without feeling like they have to step on anyone's toes in giving Frances her third Best Actress trophy. It feels like the perfect compromise pick. I still don't quite see Ma Rainey's Black Bottom winning both Best Actor and Best Actress. One, sure, but both is an extremely tall order and I think it'd have to score in Director and be a strong player for a win or two in the techs for me to feel more confident in it. I do think Netflix will prioritize it, but I don't buy it as the film that finally coups the big win for them. I voted for Nomadland; although, I admit I might have wrote The Trial of the Chicago 7 off prematurely. It just feels too conventional and dated though. I mean there was Green Book which was basically Driving Miss Daisy, but it was very crowd-pleasing and Roma was Netflix. I don’t know I just feel in such an unconventional year that voters will go all in, and go for something unique. Admittedly they could go the opposite way, but I don’t know I’m still not ready to vote for TTotC7. I agree with you about Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom too. Possible, but that seems like a tall order to not only win both lead acting prizes plus Best Picture. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 8, 2020 2:53:20 GMT
I voted for Nomadland; although, I admit I might have wrote The Trial of the Chicago 7 off prematurely. It just feels too conventional and dated though. I mean there was Green Book which was basically Driving Miss Daisy, but it was very crowd-pleasing and Roma was Netflix. I don’t know I just feel in such an unconventional year that voters will go all in, and go for something unique. Admittedly they could go the opposite way, but I don’t know I’m still not ready to vote for TTotC7. I agree with you about Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom too. Possible, but that seems like a tall order to not only win both lead acting prizes plus Best Picture. My thing with Trial of the Chicago 7 is, no one's really talking much about it anymore. It needs a hard, hard resurgence, and Netflix is less concerned with focusing their energies on one project and more about throwing everything at the wall and hoping it sticks. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 8, 2020 5:06:56 GMT
I just can't picture Ma Rainey sweeping Picture, Actor, and Actress unless it's incredible and takes its source material to new heights. I'm going to continue to quietly put my money on One Night in Miami. Not a sure bet at all, but it seems like it might be checking all the right boxes at this point. They are both plays. |
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Post by JangoB on Dec 8, 2020 14:33:24 GMT
Sticking with "Nomadland" as I don't really see any stronger alternatives, unless Hollywood picks "Chicago 7" as its easy-to-watch universal contender with timely themes. I can't quite fathom how "Ma Rainey" can be seen as less of an 'off' contender than "Nomadland" tbh - neither are your typical BP picks but I can see the more 'artistic', broader film (which has no trouble snatching audience awards at festivals) winning the main one much more easily than a monologue-driven two-hander play adaptation about a very specific subject.
Quite a strange year. Maybe "Chicago 7" does indeed pull a "Green Book" and move ahead of the competition because of how easily digestible and 'relevant' it is?
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 8, 2020 15:51:27 GMT
One thing to keep in mind is that Nomadland has actually been picking up a decent amount of audience awards.
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Post by michael128 on Dec 9, 2020 16:05:02 GMT
This is NOT how I anticipated the end of this year going. BiK has some serious work to do in the new year.
When are the Grammys? If Beyoncé Knowles-Carter performs and it’s around the same time as Oscar voting, it’s over.
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 9, 2020 16:41:59 GMT
If Beyoncé Knowles-Carter performs and it’s around the same time as Oscar voting, it’s over. What is?? |
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Post by stephen on Dec 9, 2020 16:50:32 GMT
This is NOT how I anticipated the end of this year going. BiK has some serious work to do in the new year. When are the Grammys? If Beyoncé Knowles-Carter performs and it’s around the same time as Oscar voting, it’s over. She probably ought to have waited to premiere it at Cannes next year. Put some of those palm laurels on it first. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 9, 2020 16:52:53 GMT
If Beyoncé Knowles-Carter performs and it’s around the same time as Oscar voting, it’s over. What is?? Forget it Terry, it's Michael. |
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Post by michael128 on Dec 9, 2020 17:15:14 GMT
Forget it Terry, it's Michael. Please don’t dismiss me like that. It’s rude, disrespectful, and rude. Terry, I was referring to the Best Picture race. Cheers. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 9, 2020 18:00:03 GMT
Forget it Terry, it's Michael. Please don’t dismiss me like that. It’s rude, disrespectful, and rude. Terry, I was referring to the Best Picture race. Cheers. Ok then. But I don't think it will happen anyway. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 9, 2020 18:01:12 GMT
Forget it Terry, it's Michael. You know, I thought he was talking about a nod for Beyonce or something like that. So I was curious. |
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Post by michael128 on Dec 9, 2020 18:11:12 GMT
Forget it Terry, it's Michael. You know, I thought he was talking about a nod for Beyonce or something like that. So I was curious. I mean I am. I’m predicting BiK to be an awards juggernaut. And it was produced, written, and directed by (not to mention starring) Beyoncé Knowles-Carter. I imagine she’ll be racking up a few overdue nominations, to say the least. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Dec 9, 2020 19:19:23 GMT
Still voting on Nomadland, though it isn't a lock by any means.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 10, 2020 1:56:15 GMT
Forget it Terry, it's Michael. Please don’t dismiss me like that. It’s rude, disrespectful, and rude. Terry, I was referring to the Best Picture race. Cheers. The other day you called Glenn Close "a rancid whore" filled with venereal diseases so I couldn't give less of a shit what you consider 'rude' or 'disrespectful'. |
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Post by michael128 on Dec 10, 2020 2:53:10 GMT
Please don’t dismiss me like that. It’s rude, disrespectful, and rude. Terry, I was referring to the Best Picture race. Cheers. The other day you called Glenn Close "a rancid whore" filled with venereal diseases so I couldn't give less of a shit what you consider 'rude' or 'disrespectful'. Okay okay. I felt bad about that one. I’ve made peace with Glenn Close. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2020 4:34:54 GMT
The Mank stans got some explaining to do. People are not watching this movie so how is it going to win BP? It's not even trending on Netflix.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 10, 2020 6:05:05 GMT
The Mank stans got some explaining to do. People are not watching this movie so how is it going to win BP? It's not even trending on Netflix. I'm not sure why Mank is the one you're pointing out. It is still more likely than half the other films on this poll with votes, plus it only has 1 vote anyway. |
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Post by michael128 on Dec 12, 2020 10:08:59 GMT
Can The Prom be added to the next poll please and thank you.
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Post by quetee on Dec 16, 2020 19:18:18 GMT
Half-way mark.
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