|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 7, 2020 21:22:21 GMT
Last month:
Added:
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Judah and the Messiah
Dropped:
Nothing dropped in Nov.
Winner: Nomadland
|
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Dec 7, 2020 21:58:44 GMT
Not very impressed with my previous choice (Mank) so I'll go with Nomadland for now.
|
|
speeders
Based
Posts: 4,170 
Likes: 2,260
Member is Online
|
Post by speeders on Dec 7, 2020 22:02:46 GMT
Kind of glad I never voted for Mank, I think its votes will drop like flies now. I want it to be Nomadland, but I'm still really Trial of Chicago 7 will benefit from the preferential ballot and be like #2 and #3 on enough ballots to win. Ma Rainey could also surprise (I do have a hard time seeing it take Picture, actor and actress but if the passion is that strong, why not?) Also it's Judas and the Black Messiah, not Judah  This poll has been open for 40 minutes and Black is King already getting its vote by default  |
|
|
|
Post by Mattsby on Dec 7, 2020 22:07:49 GMT
Outta these, going with Ma Rainey bc it'll have two lead nominees and possible winners for one or both - and seeing Denzels name on the ballot won't hurt. I voted for Mank in the last few months but that's before I saw it - I'd sooner lean Nomadland now between the two. But these options feel sooo weak... if US vs Billie Holiday had the goods I think there'd be at least some buzz by now, but I haven't heard any....
|
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 7, 2020 22:08:06 GMT
Ma Rainey or Black Is King
|
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 7, 2020 22:10:35 GMT
Kind of glad I never voted for Mank, I think its votes will drop like flies now. I want it to be Nomadland, but I'm still really Trial of Chicago 7 will benefit from the preferential ballot and be like #2 and #3 on enough ballots to win. Ma Rainey could also surprise (I do have a hard time seeing it take Picture, actor and actress but if the passion is that strong, why not?) Also it's Judas and the Black Messiah, not Judah This poll has been open for 40 minutes and Black is King already getting its vote by default I copied/pasted title from post. Haha. I never voted for Mank. |
|
|
|
Post by pupdurcs on Dec 7, 2020 22:10:55 GMT
Despite it being the runaway critical favorite, something about Nomadland as a BP winner feels "off", which is probably why people have been looking for alternatives. Honestly, that alternative might be Ma Rainy's Black Bottom. Critical reception has outstripped expectations by a long way and it seems to be something of a crowdpleaser. And with it being favored to win Best Actress and Best Actor, the Academy might be just tempted to go whole hog and give it Picture as well. |
|
|
|
Post by Martin Stett on Dec 7, 2020 22:12:14 GMT
I'm gonna do a weird jump backwards to Da 5 Bloods. I've been on other stuff recently, but none of them are doing well.
|
|
|
|
Post by franklin on Dec 7, 2020 22:46:58 GMT
Mank
|
|
sirchuck23
Based
Bad news dawg...you don't mind if I have some of your 300 dollar a glass shit there would ya?
Posts: 2,963
Likes: 5,166
|
Post by sirchuck23 on Dec 7, 2020 22:47:03 GMT
Fuck it..I'm going with Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 7, 2020 22:59:19 GMT
I still think it's Nomadland's to lose. Mank looks like it's mainly going to score techs and could pull off a win or two above the line . . . but I think there's a very real chance that it becomes The Year of Chloe Zhao, and they can reward McDormand and Zhao with a prize in Best Picture without feeling like they have to step on anyone's toes in giving Frances her third Best Actress trophy. It feels like the perfect compromise pick.
I still don't quite see Ma Rainey's Black Bottom winning both Best Actor and Best Actress. One, sure, but both is an extremely tall order and I think it'd have to score in Director and be a strong player for a win or two in the techs for me to feel more confident in it. I do think Netflix will prioritize it, but I don't buy it as the film that finally coups the big win for them.
|
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Dec 7, 2020 23:10:12 GMT
A Ma Rainey's Black Bottom victory seems unlikely as the staginess of it has been frequently noted in reviews (similar to Fences). Honestly its reviews would probably be closer to that film (Still very positive mind you), if not for the goodwill for Boseman, which might've tempered detractors a bit.
|
|
|
|
Post by pupdurcs on Dec 7, 2020 23:15:27 GMT
I still think it's Nomadland's to lose. Mank looks like it's mainly going to score techs and could pull off a win or two above the line . . . but I think there's a very real chance that it becomes The Year of Chloe Zhao, and they can reward McDormand and Zhao with a prize in Best Picture without feeling like they have to step on anyone's toes in giving Frances her third Best Actress trophy. It feels like the perfect compromise pick. I still don't quite see Ma Rainey's Black Bottom winning both Best Actor and Best Actress. One, sure, but both is an extremely tall order and I think it'd have to score in Director and be a strong player for a win or two in the techs for me to feel more confident in it. I do think Netflix will prioritize it, but I don't buy it as the film that finally coups the big win for them. I think George C Wolfe has to be a strong contender for a directing nod. His movie is at 87 on Metacritic with 28 reviews. That is Best Director nod level. He may not have been some big time film director before Ma Rainy's Black Bottom, but he is one of the most esteemed Broadway directors living. Not sure why you think he wouldn't be in play for a nomination. Right now, Wolfe is in my predicted 5 for Best Director. Even if they nod Wolfe, they can still give Best Director to Zhao and BP to Ma Rainy . Best Picture and Director splits happen all the time. |
|
|
|
Post by pupdurcs on Dec 7, 2020 23:20:15 GMT
A Ma Rainey's Black Bottom victory seems unlikely as the staginess of it has been frequently noted in reviews (similar to Fences). Honestly its reviews would probably be closer to that film (Still very positive mind you), if not for the goodwill for Boseman, which might've tempered detractors a bit. was 79 on Metacritic. Ma Rainy's Black Bottom is at 87 on Metacritic. It's only behind Nomadland in terms of reviews (at the moment). Fences was behind several BP contenders in terms of reviews, and wasn't in a position to be a frontrunner because of that. Not a similar situation at all. And with acclaim that high, I can't buy the "it's too stagey" excuse as particularly strong reason why it can't win BP.
|
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Dec 7, 2020 23:32:40 GMT
Love this boards sudden creaming of our jeans over plays as films because nobody loves plays like I do.......but a play winning BP in 2020? Nah, not buying it ..........and that's with the fact that the 2 leading actor candidates and the top actress candidate are coming from plays which is awesome ..........but especially when it looks as stagy as Ma Rainey does I already bristle at it....and Ma Rainey is not THAT good of a play either (The Father for all the doubts I have about that winning stuff is a better play and more contemporary) .....
I'm all aboard plays getting acting wins and this play love thing is awesome but my guess is when it comes down to picking a movie they'd pick Nomadland or Da 5 Bloods or almost anything else that's a new vision every time........when it's a new movie vs. an old play........Hollywood loves the movies....and hates New York for the big prize I'm guessing
|
|
|
|
Post by michael128 on Dec 7, 2020 23:59:57 GMT
Have we ever had the two front runners (with a third quite some distance back) share a common word in their title like this before?
|
|
dazed
Based
Posts: 2,867
Likes: 1,999
|
Post by dazed on Dec 8, 2020 0:02:41 GMT
Fuck it, I’ll go with Judas and the Black Messiah.
|
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Dec 8, 2020 0:26:09 GMT
A Ma Rainey's Black Bottom victory seems unlikely as the staginess of it has been frequently noted in reviews (similar to Fences). Honestly its reviews would probably be closer to that film (Still very positive mind you), if not for the goodwill for Boseman, which might've tempered detractors a bit. was 79 on Metacritic. Ma Rainy's Black Bottom is at 87 on Metacritic. It's only behind Nomadland in terms of reviews (at the moment). Fences was behind several BP contenders in terms of reviews, and wasn't in a position to be a frontrunner because of that. Not a similar situation at all. And with acclaim that high, I can't buy the "it's too stagey" excuse as particularly strong reason why it can't win BP.
Stagy is a great reason to prevent the big prize. I feel I can already read the brutally bread-dead voter ballot "Not really a movie", "Just the play". And again, the score definitely seemed amplified just a bit by Boseman's untimely death, as the reviews are very similar to Fences in noting that it doesn't elevate itself beyond the play so to speak. Of course metacritic score isn't the end all be all anyways, just ask Green Book. |
|
|
|
Post by pupdurcs on Dec 8, 2020 0:34:32 GMT
Fences was 79 on Metacritic. Ma Rainy's Black Bottom is at 87 on Metacritic. It's only behind Nomadland in terms of reviews (at the moment). Fences was behind several BP contenders in terms of reviews, and wasn't in a position to be a frontrunner because of that. Not a similar situation at all. And with acclaim that high, I can't buy the "it's too stagey" excuse as particularly strong reason why it can't win BP.
Stagy is a great reason to prevent the big prize. I feel I can already read the brutally bread-dead voter ballot "Not really a movie", "Just the play". And again, the score definitely seemed amplified just a bit by Boseman's untimely death, as the reviews are very similar to Fences in noting that it doesn't elevate itself beyond the play so to speak. Of course metacritic score isn't the end all be all anyways, just ask Green Book. Still doesn't change the fact that it's currently the 2nd best reviewed movie in the race, and the current favorite to win two above-the-line acting Oscars. It has enough advantages to contend for BP. It's that simple. Now the "it's an adapted stage play" thing might be a potential drawback (just like Nomadland feeling a bit too "indie spirit" for Oscars might be a potential drawback for it), but with all this film has going for, it's also not enough to flat-out say it can't win BP. Especially when things that once felt like more likely BP winners like Mank, no longer do. |
|
Good God
Badass
Posts: 1,633
Likes: 1,944
|
Post by Good God on Dec 8, 2020 0:40:23 GMT
Fences was 79 on Metacritic. Ma Rainy's Black Bottom is at 87 on Metacritic. It's only behind Nomadland in terms of reviews (at the moment). Fences was behind several BP contenders in terms of reviews, and wasn't in a position to be a frontrunner because of that. Not a similar situation at all. And with acclaim that high, I can't buy the "it's too stagey" excuse as particularly strong reason why it can't win BP.
Really? That's not what you were saying in 2016:  |
|
Savager
Junior Member
Posts: 431
Likes: 515
|
Post by Savager on Dec 8, 2020 0:40:53 GMT
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom having 8 votes.  What the hell is going on here? Nomadland, with The Trial of the Chicago 7 as runner-up. |
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 8, 2020 0:44:21 GMT
I still think it's Nomadland's to lose. Mank looks like it's mainly going to score techs and could pull off a win or two above the line . . . but I think there's a very real chance that it becomes The Year of Chloe Zhao, and they can reward McDormand and Zhao with a prize in Best Picture without feeling like they have to step on anyone's toes in giving Frances her third Best Actress trophy. It feels like the perfect compromise pick. I still don't quite see Ma Rainey's Black Bottom winning both Best Actor and Best Actress. One, sure, but both is an extremely tall order and I think it'd have to score in Director and be a strong player for a win or two in the techs for me to feel more confident in it. I do think Netflix will prioritize it, but I don't buy it as the film that finally coups the big win for them. I think George C Wolfe has to be a strong contender for a directing nod. His movie is at 87 on Metacritic with 28 reviews. That is Best Director nod level. He may not have been some big time film director before Ma Rainy's Black Bottom, but he is one of the most esteemed Broadway directors living. Not sure why you think he wouldn't be in play for a nomination. Right now, Wolfe is in my predicted 5 for Best Director. Even if they nod Wolfe, they can still give Best Director to Zhao and BP to Ma Rainy . Best Picture and Director splits happen all the time. Wolfe is in the mix, but the complaints about Ma Rainey's Black Bottom are almost exclusively down to the staginess of the project. Which isn't exactly a death knell per se, but when it comes to theater directors adapting plays this year, Florian Zeller's gotten much more rapturous attention for circumventing the theatricality of his play and making it cinematic (on a side-note, The Father cannot be underestimated as a contender). Wolfe feels like he's in the 6-10 range at the moment, with room to rise. I'd say at the moment, Zhao/Fincher/Zeller (to me) feel like firm likelihoods, then you've got the likes of Greengrass, both Kings (Regina and Shaka) for different projects, and Lee Isaac Chung in there as well. This category is very much in flux, and most of these (for the projects that have been screened) have gotten better notices for their individual direction than Wolfe has. But if Wolfe does crack the Top 5, and if the film can coup some strong tech nods (Editing, Cinematography), then I'd feel much more confident in its Picture chances. |
|
|
|
Post by pupdurcs on Dec 8, 2020 0:45:14 GMT
You need help dude. What I may or may not have said in 2016 is irrelevant to what I'm saying now. Stop embarrassing yourself by looking for my attention on every thread (your attempt to do it on the Sandler, Murphy, Murray thread was shameless, but at least you had the sense not to address me directly ) We gonna have to do this shit at least once a week? You trying to ruin and derail perfectly civil threads (and make the whole board pay for it)because you have a hard on for me. Grow up, buddy. It's gotten real old. |
|
Good God
Badass
Posts: 1,633
Likes: 1,944
|
Post by Good God on Dec 8, 2020 0:46:55 GMT
^^^ You need help dude. What I may or may not have said in 2016 is irrelevant to what I'm saying now. Stop embarrassing yourself by looking for my attention on every thread (your attempt to do it on the Sandler, Murphy, Murray thread was shameless, but at least you had the sense not to address me directly ) We gonna have to do this shit at least once a week? You trying to ruin and derail perfectly civil threads because you have a hard on for me. Grow up, buddy. It's gotten real old.You're just a stanboy that "predicts" things he wants to happen. Glad to throw your credibility in the gutter, where it belongs. You're welcome. |
|
|
|
Post by pupdurcs on Dec 8, 2020 0:49:01 GMT
|
|
