I can be wrong but it was said that Jack Fincher closely followed (discredited) claims of Pauline Kael in his "Mank" script. Now I know that Eric Roth have re-wrote it but if it repeats any of Kael's claims, I can see Welles historians and friends (Bogdanovich, in particular) attacking this. All these can very well hurt its Oscar chances.
I think Mank is gonna get Fincher his Director win finally, especially after seeing those new images, but BP I’m still flimsy about. No way I was predicting Parasite to win in September. I could see it going to something like Nomadland, but it’s hard to say. I’ll just stick with Mank and wait another month.