I can straight up make a pretty convincing argument that Willem Dafoe is a better film actor than any American in his generation - the 80s generation - Spacey/Hanks/Cage/Washington/Penn - not a bigger star, but a legitimately better actor.
It just looks........odd he's missing one.
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I think Ian McKellen is the most overdue and I vote for him but he's also much older than the majority of the others. All have pros and cons, Dafoe is the one who has done the most impressive/interesting works during the last few years (and can gets easy recency bias) but I think his works doesn't have the impact (nor the iconic level) of some others where people consistently scream that they should have won for something, Norton (AHX), or Neeson & Fiennes (Schindler's List) or Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler). Jim Carrey is underrated and considering is huge numbers of Golden Globes nominations, some may think that he at least deserved an oscar nomination.