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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2020 4:33:27 GMT
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 6, 2020 4:47:12 GMT
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Post by Joaquim on Jul 6, 2020 6:48:09 GMT
Same amount of electoral votes but with trump winning
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Post by Sharbs on Jul 6, 2020 6:56:36 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2020 13:15:20 GMT
Sharbs - I'd think that if Biden flips ruby-red Arizona, he handily flips purple North Carolina and Wisconsin.  Are you worried at all about what is currently in the White House flipping Minnesota? It was dangerously close there in 2016...
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 6, 2020 20:44:01 GMT
I dunno but you can be pretty sure that we won't see Trump pretty much anywhere else besides Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for the next 4 months ......I'm kidding but that's his shot - unless he thinks he's closer in Michigan (down 5 at best) and Georgia (down 4 at best) than any polls I've seen and he can swap out say Wisconsin for one of them. I'm kind of jealous of those states whose votes are that desired  |
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Post by Sharbs on Jul 6, 2020 23:58:39 GMT
Sharbs - I'd think that if Biden flips ruby-red Arizona, he handily flips purple North Carolina and Wisconsin. Are you worried at all about what is currently in the White House flipping Minnesota? It was dangerously close there in 2016... that's probably fair. My sister lives in AZ and she is totally seeing a shift in how people are talking about Trump in a negative light in general, but that might just be who she surrounds herself with. A lot of things I'm hearing out of WI is that they aren't liking what they are seeing as strictly rioting from the neighbors to the west rather than protests in areas that aren't Madison or Milw., but I might be putting to much stock in rural WI. And I don't have a lick of an idea of the temp. in NC. I just kinda thought it'd be fun to also post, didn't put a ton of thought. As far as MN goes, I certainly was pre-pandemic. I'm not now after his utter bungle of a job with that. If he couldn't pull out the win here against Clinton then he's not against Biden, who is far more in the wheelhouse of skeptical moderates. I think the current polling numbers are in 10-12 point range, that's up there with a lot of the NE states |
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Post by countjohn on Jul 7, 2020 19:43:04 GMT
If the election were held today-  When the actual election is held it would not surprise me if Trump ends up hanging on to Ohio, NC, and maybe AZ. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 7, 2020 19:46:39 GMT
not a rabbit hole I care to go down today
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2020 1:39:01 GMT
not a rabbit hole I care to go down today Just for fun? |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 8, 2020 1:58:00 GMT
not a rabbit hole I care to go down today Just for fun? thinking about politics is what I do to torture myself, never for fun  |
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Post by Film Socialism on Jul 8, 2020 2:05:06 GMT
kanye has wyoming in the bag
perhaps illinois as well
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2020 13:57:03 GMT
thinking about politics is what I do to torture myself, never for fun Well, let me ask you this as I did with sharbs and his home state - are you worried at all about the creature that currently occupies the Oval Office flipping Virginia? It was fairly close in 2016, and Governor Northam's enacting liberal policies might really energize those in the more rural areas... |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 8, 2020 17:37:27 GMT
thinking about politics is what I do to torture myself, never for fun Well, let me ask you this as I did with sharbs and his home state - are you worried at all about the creature that currently occupies the Oval Office flipping Virginia? It was fairly close in 2016, and Governor Northam's enacting liberal policies might really energize those in the more rural areas... No chance. If Clinton could do it, Biden can do it w/o breaking a sweat. The avg for the current models has Biden up by 11 points over Trump. Virginia hasn't sided with Trump once and we've been riding a progressively blu-er wave throughout the 2018 midterms and in 2019 where dems took full control of the state legislature. Obviously there's going to be pushback but the repealing of photo ID laws is sure to boost Biden more than anything. I see absolutely no path for Trump in VA. |
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Post by urbanpatrician on Aug 30, 2020 18:53:21 GMT
Battleground states:
New Hampshire
Florida
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Nevada
Those are the only battleground states. The others are staying the way they are in the previous election. 3 went to Clinton last time. 4 went to Trump.
I can see Florida going to Biden because I'm hearing older people are liking Biden there and he's gaining a bit there compared to Clinton. As can Michigan because maybe Trump luckily won that one last time. But I think Minnesota and Wisconsin are too rural, and the black people in those states prefer Clinton (see a less overall turnout this time). Pennsylvania has lots of small towns and showed Trump sympathies last time, and don't see that changing. The "silent" voters will always favor Trump.
As for New Hampshire, word is Trump is gaining in the state and there are quite a lot of Trump families in that state. Nevada.... call it a hunch, but I think that's gonna remain Democratic because I don't see a whole lot changing in that state.
Don't think Trump can win Virginia tho..... that stays Democratic. Nor will Biden will Arizona, it's still overall more Republican and don't see Biden being the one that flips that state..... rarely hear Arizonians show much enthusiasm for Biden. (there are lots of anti-Trump Arizonians tho)
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 30, 2020 19:22:59 GMT
Battleground states:New HampshireFlorida
MichiganMinnesota
Wisconsin
PennsylvaniaNevada One of the things that makes the polls a big problem is 2020 has so many oddities - the enthusiasm for Trump is high, and not for Biden but "anti-Trump" enthusiasm is obviously high against Trump..........you don't know how much voting will be suppressed and where.........and crucially the news cycle is like constant now so polls are always behind where the people are - much more than normal years or even 2016. This poll came out today - no one covered it  - but Trump tweeted it out - now is it an outlier, well yes, sure I can see that it seems "off" but how far off is it? Every few days these weird outlier polls do pop up - at a certain point you have to start to wonder what's really happening and you can't just dismiss them and then 2 more days go by and the news cycle changes again - and the polls are behind/questionable again. nation.com.pk/30-Aug-2020/trump-crows-over-new-poll-predicting-landslide-victory-in-novemberNational Popular Vote:
Trump 48
Biden 45
Battlegrounds of FL, IA, MI, MN, PA
Trump 49
Biden 42 |
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Post by urbanpatrician on Aug 30, 2020 20:25:17 GMT
Battleground states:New HampshireFlorida
MichiganMinnesota
Wisconsin
PennsylvaniaNevada One of the things that makes the polls a big problem is 2020 has so many oddities - the enthusiasm for Trump is high, and not for Biden but "anti-Trump" enthusiasm is obviously high against Trump..........you don't know how much voting will be suppressed and where.........and crucially the news cycle is like constant now so polls are always behind where the people are - much more than normal years or even 2016. This poll came out today - no one covered it - but Trump tweeted it out - now is it an outlier, well yes, sure I can see that it seems "off" but how far off is it? Every few days these weird outlier polls do pop up - at a certain point you have to start to wonder what's really happening and you can't just dismiss them and then 2 more days go by and the news cycle changes again - and the polls are behind/questionable again. nation.com.pk/30-Aug-2020/trump-crows-over-new-poll-predicting-landslide-victory-in-novemberNational Popular Vote:
Trump 48
Biden 45
Battlegrounds of FL, IA, MI, MN, PA
Trump 49
Biden 42Well.... the polls sample too small a sample size. And that's not accounting for the fact that Democrats always answer polls more, and are more active on internet media. Republicans have slightly different habits. But the silent voters always favor Trump. Michael Moore even said that there could possibly be 60 million people in Trump's base. INSANE numbers. Unheard of. He only got 62 million votes last election and certainly nowhere close to all of those voters were ardent Trump fanatics. The main poll that's interesting is that in the Rust Belt in late August 2016, Clinton led Trump by 9+ points. Biden is leading Trump by only 3-4.5 points right now. If Biden can't win the Rust Belt, game is over. Minnesota can also flip to Republican as well, so Biden has yet one more additional state to worry about. And also, even if Biden spends all his energy on the Rust Belt and wins all 4 of those background Rust Belt states.... he could still lose the election. Trump will feel Biden is trying to win the Rust Belt, and he'll re-focus his energy on Florida, New Hampshire, and Nevada knowing that Biden will need to spend double the energy on those other states which he may not have time to close in on. If Trump wins all 3 of New Hamphire, Nevada, and Florida and keeps all Republican states, he wins 270-268. Look at this map I made.... Biden is definitely the one under pressure, and more stress imo. And he's still sitting home all day.  |
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- but Trump tweeted it out - now is it an outlier, well yes, sure I can see that it seems "off" but how far off is it? Every few days these weird outlier polls do pop up - at a certain point you have to start to wonder what's really happening and you can't just dismiss them and then 2 more days go by and the news cycle changes again - and the polls are behind/questionable again. 