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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2020 18:03:33 GMT
Here we go again.
The only real nail-biter here was Nyong'o vs. Lawrence, but I've got...
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
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Post by stephen on Mar 31, 2020 18:27:01 GMT
I'm inclined to think:
Chiwetel Ejiofor. He had the Best Picture winner, he had the BAFTA, he had the strong baity role. DiCaprio wasn't gonna win for that role (as amazing as he was in it), Dern was probably very strong in there but I think in the absence of another win for the film, I just can't see him taking second, and Bale barely got in.
Judi Dench. Something of a swan song for her as an awards contender, had strength throughout the season in surprising arenas (Picture, Screenplay) and it was a less alienating role than Adams's. Hell, I'd say even Bullock was ahead of Amy.
Abdi for sure. Won the BAFTA and had something of the star-making narrative building around him. Fassbender was far too unpleasant a character and I just don't think the Academy went as gaga for American Hustle aside from...
Jennifer Lawrence. She was at peak J-Law love before everyone turned on her, she got the Globe and the BAFTA, and it's the loudest and showiest role in that piece of shit.
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Post by mattfincher on Mar 31, 2020 19:18:37 GMT
Ejiofor, who had the Best Picture winner, BAFTA, and a strong critics run. DiCaprio is wishful thinking. There really is no precedent for a gonzo performance like that winning in this category and he really had nothing tangible going for him beyond the fact it was his 4th nomination.
I have genuinely no idea? Bullock had the strongest film, but there's no way they were going to give it to her again so soon. Adams was in a nomination hog, but her film struggled to form a consensus in any category. I'm inclined to say Dench.
Yeah, Abdi given the BAFTA win. Although, his film did underperform nomination wise, so it's not entirely clear cut.
Lawrence, obviously.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2020 19:23:51 GMT
I guess DiCaprio's and Adams' Globe wins and the massive broad appeal of both their films mean nothing? Y'all are sometimes pretty revisionist when it comes to judging these.
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Post by mattfincher on Mar 31, 2020 19:27:12 GMT
I guess DiCaprio's and Adams' Globe wins and the massive broad appeal of both their films mean nothing? Y'all are sometimes pretty revisionist when it comes to judging these. The HFPA loves DiCaprio. How does a Globe win where Ejiofor wasn't present in the category trump a BAFTA win, stronger critics run, and stronger film overall? I'd argue thinking DiCaprio was second is revisionism based on how popular that performance has become in subsequent years. Nobody actually thought he could win at the time and Ejiofor was considered the frontrunner before the precursors started. I have no idea who was second in Best Actress, it may well could have been Adams. That's like asking who finished second in a race where the winner lapped everyone twice. |
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Post by stephen on Mar 31, 2020 19:40:24 GMT
I guess DiCaprio's and Adams' Globe wins and the massive broad appeal of both their films mean nothing? Y'all are sometimes pretty revisionist when it comes to judging these. Massive broad appeal of two films that wound up winless in the end at the Oscars despite a hefty nomination haul? You can't even argue an overdue narrative when it comes to Adams because as the Academy has proven time and again of late, they don't give a damn how many nominations you've had -- if they don't like the performance, they won't reward it. There is a great deal to discuss when it comes to American Hustle and how it amounted to nothing at the end; it's the biggest example of people buying into hype at the right moment, only when the dust settled, it turns out that it didn't have nearly the amount of passion people thought it would. I suspect that if the timing had been off by two weeks, it wouldn't have garnered half those nominations. Adams also wasn't against Bullock or Dench when she won the Globe. She beat Streep, and I'd argue that she was ahead of her at least, but Bullock had the far stronger movie (as evidenced by it winning seven Oscars to Hustle's zero) and Dench's movie overperformed by the end (most people dismissed it as a contender at TIFF on the back of some bad reviews; she also had a fair narrative going that it was going to be her last major role). Similarly, DiCaprio wasn't against Ejiofor, who also had the stronger film and baitier character. You can argue he was ahead of Dern, especially as he won the Globe over him, but I think he was third at best that year. |
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Post by sirjeremy on Mar 31, 2020 21:17:16 GMT
Dern
Bullock
Fassbender
Lawrence
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Post by notacrook on Mar 31, 2020 21:54:35 GMT
DiCaprio
Adams
Abdi
Lawrence
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morton
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Post by morton on Mar 31, 2020 22:07:35 GMT
Best Actor: I think it's Ejiofor because of the BAFTA win and Best Picture win, and the nature of his role. I actually think Dern might have been third and maybe close to Ejiofor, but I guess the awards deities knew that the Dern-Ladd household would finally be blessed but in 6 years.
Best Actress: This is tough because besides Streep who I feel was last, I could see any of the other nominees being in second place just because Blanchett must have won by such a large margin and because they all have pros and cons. I'll go with Dench though too just because American Hustle did so badly in phase II, and Bullock had already won.
Best Supporting Actor: I think Abdi because of the BAFTA win.
Best Supporting Actress: Definitely the closest race of the four with Lawrence of course being second.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 31, 2020 23:40:22 GMT
as we're getting farther into the past everything's becoming more hazy but I definitely felt at the time that Best Actor was between McConaughey and Ejiofor and I was actually predicting the latter. I'm sure Ejiofor was in 2nd. And then I felt that supporting actress was definitely between Nyong'o and Lawrence and I think I was predicting Lawrence too so I'm calling J-Law for runner-up.
Actress and supporting actor I have no idea. I'm inclined to say Adams and Fassbender but I don't remember those races at all except to notice that everyone was second to Blanchett.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Apr 1, 2020 0:02:31 GMT
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Judi Dench, Philomena
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Easily would've preferred this set of winners too...
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 1, 2020 2:54:07 GMT
Ejiofor
Dench
Abdi
Lawrence
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Post by stabcaesar on Apr 1, 2020 4:03:33 GMT
Ejiofor - He won at the BAFTAs and 12 Years a Slave was far more beloved than WoWS.
Bullock - I think it's pretty obvious that she was a very, very distant RU. Voters don't care about who had won recently. They are way too egotistical to even check the stats. If they did Swank, Waltz, and Ali wouldn't have won their 2nd. It's all about the buzz, and Gravity had all the buzz in the world on Oscar night whereas American Hustle had lost all of it. If Blanchett hadn't swept the season Bullock would definitely have won her 2nd. It is true that Philomena overperformed at the nominations but that buzz never really sustained.
Abdi - He won at the BAFTAs and I don't think there was a whole lot of passion for any of the other 3 nominees.
Lawrence - Duh.
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Post by TerryMontana on Apr 1, 2020 5:44:02 GMT
Leo, Adams, Abdi, JLaw.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Apr 1, 2020 14:40:10 GMT
Ejiofor
Bullock
Abdi
Lawrence
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Post by DanQuixote on Apr 1, 2020 14:54:56 GMT
Ejiofor. Baity role in the BP winner. I think in most other years he would've won.
Dench.
Abdi. His BAFTA win over Fassbender sealed him up as the alternate.
Lawrence. I bet this was super close.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Apr 2, 2020 3:09:37 GMT
I couldn't have said it better than Stephen and Matt.
Lawrence is the clear cut one. Abdi is next up, given his BAFTA upset.
I do see the case for DiCaprio given his Globe win, the overdue narrative that had already reached popular meme status at that point, as well as the fact that Jordan Belfort is among his most passionately beloved performances among film fans... but then again, Ejiofor won over him in the one televised precursor that McConaughey wasn't up for, starred in the Best Picture winner, and played a massively sympathetic role as opposed to a vile, wife-beating, criminal sociopath. Plus, as has been pointed out, DiCaprio and Ejiofor were in different categories at the Globes, meaning the former's win doesn't quite shift the race as much as it might've otherwise.
It's a similar situation with Adams and her Globe: the only Oscar nominee she was up against in Comedy/Musical was Streep, who she admittedly probably did finish ahead of given that the latter had just won for The Iron Lady. Adams wasn't competing for the Globe against Blanchett, Bullock or Dench, so it doesn't mean much. (See also: her win in the very same category the following year for Big Eyes, which couldn't boost her chances beyond a likely #7 finish at the nomination stage.)
American Hustle also flagged hard on phase two; by the time the final ballots were sent out it was as if all the hype and passion for it had evaporated entirely. Much like Vice five years later, it was a case of a film coming out just late enough to peak during phase one voting, but completely lacking the substance and support to sustain itself much further than that. Hustle losing Original Screenplay to Her (even though it was the far stronger film fresh off of a BAFTA win in the category and even though O. Russell was in the middle of a white hot streak with three Picture/Director/Screenplay nominees in the span of only 4 years) as well as losing Costume Design to a May release with mixed reviews and no big 8 support are both pretty telling signs.
Add to that the fact that Adams was snubbed by SAG even though Hustle managed to overcome its very late release and muscle its way into Ensemble and Supporting Actress, and I really don't see a case for her being #2. I'd say she's likelier to have finished fourth.
Compare Hustle to Gravity, which was able to sustain its stratospheric frontrunner buzz from its Venice debut in late August until Oscar night, when it managed a whopping 7 wins including Best Director. Then there's also Dench with the narrative of a looming retirement, immensely sympathetic real-life role, and a consistently overperforming film with a Best Picture nomination and surprising BAFTA win for Screenplay. Bullock having won only 4 years earlier makes me give the edge to Dench, who I feel commands considerable respect from her peers (especially the British block, who truly came to bat for her film) and who many voters would probably like to see get rewarded with another trophy before her retirement should they get a proper chance to do it. I can more easily see Academy members voting en masse for Philomena Lee than I can Sydney Prosser, which is why I'm confident that Dench would've swept had Blue Jasmine not come out in 2013.
So Ejiofor, Dench, Abdi and Lawrence.
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 2, 2020 5:16:56 GMT
I couldn't have said it better than Stephen and Matt. Lawrence is the clear cut one. Abdi is next up, given his BAFTA upset. I do see the case for DiCaprio given his Globe win, the overdue narrative that had already reached popular meme status at that point, as well as the fact that Jordan Belfort is among his most passionately beloved performances among film fans... but then again, Ejiofor won over him in the one televised precursor that McConaughey wasn't up for, starred in the Best Picture winner, and played a massively sympathetic role as opposed to a vile, wife-beating, criminal sociopath. Plus, as has been pointed out, DiCaprio and Ejiofor were in different categories at the Globes, meaning the former's win doesn't quite shift the race as much as it might've otherwise. It's a similar situation with Adams and her Globe: the only Oscar nominee she was up against in Comedy/Musical was Streep, who she admittedly probably did finish ahead of given that the latter had just won for The Iron Lady. Adams wasn't competing for the Globe against Blanchett, Bullock or Dench, so it doesn't mean much. (See also: her win in the very same category the following year for Big Eyes, which couldn't boost her chances beyond a likely #7 finish at the nomination stage.) American Hustle also flagged hard on phase two; by the time the final ballots were sent out it was as if all the hype and passion for it had evaporated entirely. Much like Vice five years later, it was a case of a film coming out just late enough to peak during phase one voting, but completely lacking the substance and support to sustain itself much further than that. Hustle losing Original Screenplay to Her (even though it was the far stronger film fresh off of a BAFTA win in the category and even though O. Russell was in the middle of a white hot streak with three Picture/Director/Screenplay nominees in the span of only 4 years) as well as losing Costume Design to a May release with mixed reviews and no big 8 support are both pretty telling signs. Add to that the fact that Adams was snubbed by SAG even though Hustle managed to overcome its very late release and muscle its way into Ensemble and Supporting Actress, and I really don't see a case for her being #2. I'd say she's likelier to have finished fourth. Compare Hustle to Gravity, which was able to sustain its stratospheric frontrunner buzz from its Venice debut in late August until Oscar night, when it managed a whopping 7 wins including Best Director. Then there's also Dench with the narrative of a looming retirement, immensely sympathetic real-life role, and a consistently overperforming film with a Best Picture nomination and surprising BAFTA win for Screenplay. Bullock having won only 4 years earlier makes me give the edge to Dench, who I feel commands considerable respect from her peers (especially the British block, who truly came to bat for her film) and who many voters would probably like to see get rewarded with another trophy before her retirement should they get a proper chance to do it. I can more easily see Academy members voting en masse for Philomena Lee than I can Sydney Prosser, which is why I'm confident that Dench would've swept had Blue Jasmine not come out in 2013. So Ejiofor, Dench, Abdi and Lawrence. Ugh pathetic, another revisionist to join the others  |
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Post by jimmalone on Apr 2, 2020 8:29:51 GMT
Ejiofor Adams Abdi Lawrence
Feeling pretty confident about Lawrence and Ejiofor. The most vague one that year is lead actress.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Apr 2, 2020 15:06:50 GMT
I couldn't have said it better than Stephen and Matt. Lawrence is the clear cut one. Abdi is next up, given his BAFTA upset. I do see the case for DiCaprio given his Globe win, the overdue narrative that had already reached popular meme status at that point, as well as the fact that Jordan Belfort is among his most passionately beloved performances among film fans... but then again, Ejiofor won over him in the one televised precursor that McConaughey wasn't up for, starred in the Best Picture winner, and played a massively sympathetic role as opposed to a vile, wife-beating, criminal sociopath. Plus, as has been pointed out, DiCaprio and Ejiofor were in different categories at the Globes, meaning the former's win doesn't quite shift the race as much as it might've otherwise. It's a similar situation with Adams and her Globe: the only Oscar nominee she was up against in Comedy/Musical was Streep, who she admittedly probably did finish ahead of given that the latter had just won for The Iron Lady. Adams wasn't competing for the Globe against Blanchett, Bullock or Dench, so it doesn't mean much. (See also: her win in the very same category the following year for Big Eyes, which couldn't boost her chances beyond a likely #7 finish at the nomination stage.) American Hustle also flagged hard on phase two; by the time the final ballots were sent out it was as if all the hype and passion for it had evaporated entirely. Much like Vice five years later, it was a case of a film coming out just late enough to peak during phase one voting, but completely lacking the substance and support to sustain itself much further than that. Hustle losing Original Screenplay to Her (even though it was the far stronger film fresh off of a BAFTA win in the category and even though O. Russell was in the middle of a white hot streak with three Picture/Director/Screenplay nominees in the span of only 4 years) as well as losing Costume Design to a May release with mixed reviews and no big 8 support are both pretty telling signs. Add to that the fact that Adams was snubbed by SAG even though Hustle managed to overcome its very late release and muscle its way into Ensemble and Supporting Actress, and I really don't see a case for her being #2. I'd say she's likelier to have finished fourth. Compare Hustle to Gravity, which was able to sustain its stratospheric frontrunner buzz from its Venice debut in late August until Oscar night, when it managed a whopping 7 wins including Best Director. Then there's also Dench with the narrative of a looming retirement, immensely sympathetic real-life role, and a consistently overperforming film with a Best Picture nomination and surprising BAFTA win for Screenplay. Bullock having won only 4 years earlier makes me give the edge to Dench, who I feel commands considerable respect from her peers (especially the British block, who truly came to bat for her film) and who many voters would probably like to see get rewarded with another trophy before her retirement should they get a proper chance to do it. I can more easily see Academy members voting en masse for Philomena Lee than I can Sydney Prosser, which is why I'm confident that Dench would've swept had Blue Jasmine not come out in 2013. So Ejiofor, Dench, Abdi and Lawrence. Ugh pathetic, another revisionist to join the others It’s funny how 80% of the people that answered are just revisionists. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2020 15:46:29 GMT
mhynson27; Pittsnogle_Goggins - I really have no idea what I did to either of you, but since simply ignoring you isn't working, I'm going to ask you both to kindly stop. People can disagree with me, and that's fine, but what the two of you (constantly) do is closer to harassment than just a difference of opinion. I think we can all co-exist on this forum without this type of behavior. Please, can we just move on?
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