Does anyone find it surprising that Zellweger has swept?

I find it less surprising that she's been sweeping (because it is awards catnip: a loud and showy portrayal of a tragic real-life Hollywood figure in a basic-ass biopic format) and more than Johansson couldn't get a foothold, because she fits the mold of Best Actress more than Zellweger does and has had a banner year.

No because all other contenders besides Johansson didn't have strong enough films as contenders overall, even though most did as well or better than Judy, they weren't like The Favourite last year. Johansson I never thought had that much of a chance because she plays an actress whose gone through divorce, as an actress whose gone through divorce. She plays "herself" (and no I don't believe this personally), much in the same way Michael Keaton played "himself" (again don't believe that myself), who by all accounts should've won given he basically swept the critics and was in the best picture winner.

Zellweger's only sweeping the televised awards. She wasn't the critics favorite. Lupita was.

I think Johansson's controversial support of Woody Allen did her no favors.

I also think that if this was a regular awards season, Saoirse Ronan would be a bigger threat. She would have gotten the SAG nod with the film doing well at the box office. SAG over performed with Bombshell and under performed with Little Women.

Considering how underseen the film is, yeah I’m surprised, but it is a baity biopic, so not that surprising.

Yeah, somewhat. Before the season I just didn't quite think that a Renee Zellweger comeback would produce this much enthusiasm from the award bodies. Not to mention that it's not really even a comeback since she's already been doing stuff for a couple of years before it including the third Bridget Jones flick. The project just sounded like a small thing on paper, another "Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool" kind of a deal. But one should never underestimate the power these Oscar bait biopic roles have over the award voters. When you start thinking that they're more interested in less predictable options, they show you that they haven't really changed and that this stuff is still catnip for them.

Anyway, ibbi's right about the nature of the role too - a lot of boxes are sure ticked here.

I won't lie, I went back and forth between Renee and Scarlett. At one point, I thought Marriage Story would get more love than it has in terms of WINS and that that would help Scarlett win. So considering it hasn't, it's all Renee's. What a comeback.