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Post by JangoB on Nov 11, 2019 16:27:22 GMT
Please vote for five films you think are gonna get nominated!
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Post by stephen on Nov 11, 2019 16:38:22 GMT
I know it seems like folly betting against Thelma, but she missed completely for what I consider to be her finest work back in 2013, and now that she's got a film even longer than Wolf, I feel like she might be at risk for another snub. I've got her tentatively in my predictions, but it wouldn't shock me if she missed.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 11, 2019 16:40:34 GMT
My thoughts (in order of likelihood):
1. The Irishman 2. Marriage Story 3. Ford v. Ferrari 4. Joker 5. Jojo Rabbit
Despite the Wolf snub, this branch still seems quite fond of Thelma Schoonmaker and I think they'll recognize the enormity of this achievement and I think it can even win.
I was hesitant to leave OUATIH out of here but I guess it's gotta get a tech snub somewhere and I can see some voters thinking the movie's a slog or that some scenes could've been trimmed. Then again, there's also some pretty great stuff here either so it can go either way. For some reason I'm seeing a Jojo nomination here, they seem to recognize prestige comediŃ pieces here.
I can easily imagine something like Bombshell making it here with its rhythms apparently being similar to Adam McKay's latest stuff.
Parasite can definitely show up too, maybe even Star Wars repeats its Force Awakens success. And I'm not really feeling 1917 here since, like with Birdman, I don't see them being too eager to nominate something for hiding its cuts instead of showcasing them. Even though big deal war movies are usually favorites here.
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 11, 2019 17:23:05 GMT
The Irishman 1917 Once Upon Marriage Story . . . .
Don't know. Maybe Ford v Ferrari. Or Jojo. Or Lighthouse maybe?
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 11, 2019 18:36:56 GMT
1. The Irishman 2. Marriage Story 3. 1917 4. Joker 5. Jojo Rabbit There is a scene by Thelma in The Irishman - of a start/stop/repeat ala Travis Bickle's "repeated" Taxi Driver scene "Listen you fnckers, you screwheads....." that is the most gut wrenching and daring editing choice of the year - overtly sharp and emotional in what it does.....so much so that several people in my theater thought it was an actual mistake left in the film incorrectly because they are used to something else.
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morton
Based
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Post by morton on Nov 11, 2019 18:57:46 GMT
1. The Irishman 2. Marriage Story 3. Ford v. Ferrari 4. Joker 5. Parasite Just mostly copying everyone else although I'm hoping that Parasite can actually make it in over Jojo Rabbit, probably not because this was the branch that nominated Bohemian Rhapsody, although they weren't the only ones that voted for it to win . I don't see 1917 getting in since Birdman didn't, and Roma with its long takes didn't make it in either. Went with The Irishman even if it's really long because it should be top 3 and of course Thelma. Went with Marriage Story for a similar reason, it should be top 3, and the direction and editing seem "flashy" enough to make in both categories. I know I should be predicting OUATIH for the same reason, but I feel like there were some weird choices (during the tv series filming near the beginning I think there was one thing that stuck out in a bad way, and then when it jumps forward in time, I felt it was a weird transition); although the length didn't bother me. I went with Ford v Ferrari because it seems like it should have fast pace editing, and they seem to really love that over less cuts. I agree with JangoB that Bombshell might make it in here too if it really is like Vice. Then Joker because I feel like the guilds will really love it, and it should do well with the steak eater crowd to propel it to a BP nom.
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Post by Mattsby on Nov 11, 2019 21:58:30 GMT
Two months ago I predicted Star Wars, Joker, and Waves.... I'm changing it up, but same win....
The Irishman* Jojo Rabbit OUATIH Parasite Little Women
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Nov 11, 2019 22:24:55 GMT
1. The Irishman- BP frontrunner, 3.5 hours fly by, decade-spanning, Thelma Schoonmaker 2. Ford v Ferrari- BP contender, precise showcase of technical masterwork, flashy work, racing sequences 3. Jojo Rabbit- BP frontrunner with flashy comedic cuts. 4. Parasite- Popular BP contender that will get a boost due to passionate love from members, brisk pace 5. Marriage Story- BP frontrunner intertwining two character's journeys, might need it to be a threat to win the big prize.
6. 1917- Would be an obvious pick, but its "invisible editing" didn't do Birdman any favors 7. Once Upon A Time in Hollywood- Tarantino, though some found it messy without Sally Menke (H8 and Django missed) 8. Joker- surprise genre BP contender 9. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood- flashy scenes that intercut different aspect ratios 10. Little Women- Nonlinear structure, some unique editing choices
OTHERS: 11. Avengers: Endgame- 3 hours fly by, biggest film of the year 12. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker- TFA got in 13. Bombshell- Vice-ish 14. Rocketman- Musical in which the editing drives the energy, Bohemian Rhapsody won 15. Apollo 11- Literally some of the best documentary editing ever.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 10, 2019 12:20:45 GMT
UPDATED PREDICTIONS: 1. The Irishman 2. Ford v. Ferrari 3. Marriage Story 4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 5. Joker
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